1. Atmospheric Research Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from the Third Assessment Report Roger N. Jones CSIRO Atmospheric Research

2. Atmospheric Research Acknowledgments Tim Carter CLA Chapter III & slides Emilio La Rovere, Rik Leemans, Linda Mearns, ‘Naki’ Nakicenovic, Barrie Pittock, Sergei Semenov, Jim Skea, Mike Hulme

3. Atmospheric Research Chapter 13 WG I Climate Scenario Development Mearns and Hulme et al. Distinguishes between Climate change scenarios ( representation of change from baseline ) Climate scenarios ( representation of future climate )

4. Atmospheric Research Chapter 13 WG I Climate Scenario Development Mearns and Hulme et al. Key development of methods, for: Representing uncertainty High resolution information Variability and extreme events

5. Atmospheric Research Chain of dependencies in global change scenarios Socioeconomic assumptions Interactions and feedbacks Emissions scenarios Concentrations projections Radiative forcing projections Climate projections Sea level projections Regional scenarios Impacts Source: Mearns et al., 2001

6. Atmospheric Research Typology of extreme climate events

7. Atmospheric Research Chapter 3 WG II Developing and Applying Scenarios Carter and La Rovere Major developments Features non-climatic scenarios Characterises SRES scenarios Recommends consistency between scenarios Uncertainty, variability and extremes (As for Ch. 13)

8. Atmospheric Research Types of scenarios Climate Socioeconomic Land-use and Land-cover Change Environmental Sea-level rise

9. Atmospheric Research Structure of Chapter 3

10. Atmospheric Research Socioeconomic scenarios Baseline socioeconomic vulnerability Pre-climate change Determine climate change impacts Post-adaptation vulnerability

11. Atmospheric Research Land-use and land-cover scenarios Food security Carbon cycling Current and future land-use Integrated assessment models most appropriate for developing LUCC scenarios

12. Atmospheric Research Environmental scenarios Atmospheric carbon dioxide Tropospheric ozone Acidifying compounds UV radiation Water resources Marine pollution

13. Atmospheric Research Sea-level rise scenarios Need long baseline records Need to estimate relative sea level rather than absolute Regional variations unknown Variability important Amenable to risk assessment

14. Atmospheric Research Source: Nakićenović et al. (2000) The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

15. Atmospheric Research Projected changes in extreme climate events and impacts Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001

16. Atmospheric Research Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001 Projected changes in extreme climate events and impacts