1. Topographic Dependency of Rainfall Characteristics from the Sierra Madre Occidental in Northwest Mexico NERN Project Team: NCAR, U. Arizona, U. Sonora, IMADES, ITSON, NOAA-CPC, Hampton U. 29 th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 20, 2004

2. Outline of Presentation: Brief overview of the precipitation event monitoring network in Mexico for the 2004 NAME-EOP Recent findings from the NERN with emphasis on the diurnal cycle Complimentary activities

4. NEXRAD Yuma NCAR SPOL SMN Guasabe SMN El Palmito SMN Cd. Obregon SMN Los Cabos NEXRAD Tucson NEXRAD El Paso Radar Umbrella Radius: Approx. 150 km NEXRAD San Angelo NEXRAD Midland

5. NERN-Spol Radar Network:

6. NAME Simple Rain Gauge Network 141 Gauges Daily Reporting

7. NERN Configuration: 87 Event logging, tipping bucket raingages 6 major W-E transects traversing SMO Major improvement in topographic and temporal sampling of precipitation Installed 2002-2003, in operation through spring of 2006 Not available in real-time Contacts: gochis@rap.ucar.edu, watts@fisica.uson.mx, garatuza@itson.mx

13. NAME Physiographic Relationships 2002 2003

15. Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Frequency

18. Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle of Precip. Frequency Jul-Aug ’03 Transect Mean Diurnal Cycle

19. Precipitation Analyses: Diurnal Cycle of Intensity

20. Precipitation Analyses: Extreme Precipitation, Maximum Hourly Intensity Popular theme: Jones et al. Extreme precip and MJO Popular theme: Jones et al. Extreme precip and MJO Saha CFS extreme precip validation Saha CFS extreme precip validation Kunkel Extreme precip. 1895-2003 Kunkel Extreme precip. 1895-2003 What is an extreme? S. Saha “Large departure from What is an extreme? S. Saha “Large departure from normal” (>= 2 , 1.5  ) normal” (>= 2 , 1.5  )

21. Precipitation Analyses: Extreme Precipitation, Maximum Hourly Intensity Jul-Aug 2002-2003 Elevation BandsNetworkB1B2B3B4B5B6 Elevation Band Interval (m)0-500500-10001000-15001500-20002000-25002500-3000 Number of Gages762012518147 Avg. Max. Intensity 37.428.926.623.121.019.5 Std. Dev. Max. Intensity 19.89.221.48.75.56.2 Abs. Max. Intensity 78.543.247.338.631.832.5

23. 1-Day5-Min

24. Gulf Surges During 2003 – NERN Analysis

25. CPC-NERN Jul-Aug 03 Total Precipitation CPC-NERN Aug 02 Total Precipitation Quantifying Uncertainty in QPE Products Difference in monthly and seasonal precipitation in CPC daily gridded analyses and NERN Appear to be regions of persistently high uncertainty Useful a value-analysis of NERN gauges in formation of a long-term observing network

26. Complimentary Activities: Isotopic Analysis Evaporation of falling rain appears to be significant only in the desert climate of the three northwestern stations (Tucson, Mazocahui and Huasabas). Trend in  O18 values from northwest to southeast is mainly a function of station altitude. The samples generally plot close to the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) but do show evidence of some interannual variability (Courtesy of Chris Estoe, U. Arizona) GMWL: dD=8.13*d18O+10.8 NERN-03: dD=5.97*d18O-5.65

27. NAME Community Archives Hydrological Data (NHWG-Action Plan) –Daily Reports from the CNA from Sonora (and Sinaloa) –Streamflow, reservoir levels, precipitation, pan evaporation –Currently in Excel Spreadsheets –Will be distributed via JOSS NAME Data Catalog WRF Modeling Archive –Jul 1 – Sep 1, 2004 –2x Daily 48-hr Forecasts –GFS Initialization and Boundary Forcing –12 km horizontal resolution, 31 vertical layers –Available to community via NCAR Mass Store (1.22 Gb) Photo Archive –UCAR Digital Image Library (https://www.fin.ucar.edu/ucardil/default.jsp) –NOAA Photo Library (http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/)

28. Precipitation Analyses: Topographic Dependence of the Diurnal Cycle of Wet Day Rain Rate