1. Willingness to Pay for Low Probability, Low Loss Hazard Insurance John C. Whitehead Department of Economics Appalachian State University Thanks to Bob Edwards, John Maiolo, Marieke Van Willigan, Ken Wilson and Claudia Williams for their contributions to this research and Jamie Brown Kruse for comments. A previous version of this paper was presented at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, November 2005 and the American Meteorological Society Annual Meetings in Atlanta, GA, February 2006.

2. Evacuation Cost Insurance “Analysis of behavior and policy prescriptions would not be such a problem if low probability natural disasters had small consequences.” -- Ganderton et al. 2000, page 272.

3. Literature McClelland, Schulze and Coursey (1993) Ganderton et al. (2000) Ozdemir (2005) Burrus, Dumas and Graham (2005)

4. Data March 2001 telephone survey Response rate = 73% (n = 411) Most respondents had experienced one or more hurricanes (n = 384) 50% evacuated for at least one storm

6. Empirical Model

7. Dependent Variable Many people in coastal areas are safer if they evacuate their home before a hurricane strikes. But evacuating can cost a lot of time, money and lost income. Some people would rather stay at home during a hurricane so that they don’t spend money and lose income. To reduce this problem and increase safety, one plan is to have a hurricane evacuation insurance policy to reimburse people for the costs of evacuation.

8. Willingness to Pay Suppose you could purchase a hurricane evacuation insurance policy from an insurance agent before the next hurricane season. The price of the evacuation insurance is $p each hurricane season. With insurance, you would be reimbursed for all of your evacuation expenses throughout the hurricane season. This would include reimbursement for travel, lodging, food, medical costs and lost income. Do you think you would purchase the hurricane evacuation insurance policy?

9. % YES 51% = very sure, 44% = somewhat sure, 3% = not sure at all

10. Independent Variables Policy price = p Evacuation probability = r = Σ (ρ × π ) Evacuation cost = c Factors affecting evacuation

11. Willingness to Pay Models Had Evacuated for a Recent Hurricane Had Not Evacuated for a Recent Hurricane yesyes-sureyesyes-sure Coeff.t-ratioCoeff.t-ratioCoeff.t-ratioCoeff.t-ratio Constant0.840.562.161.231.460.861.660.82 ln Price-0.50-1.69-0.86-2.40-0.99-2.92-1.20-2.84 Probability1.241.22-0.91-0.705.931.715.291.39 Cost0.0013.300.0013.260.0032.810.0021.78 Income-0.002-0.36-0.001-0.170.0050.930.0111.68 χ2χ2 18.4718.0722.2015.94 R2R2 0.100.11 0.12 Cases191 193 WTP15.940.8214.831.1834.412.3120.141.72

12. Summary A majority of respondents would not purchase the product at even the lowest price Respondents are rational, ahem, in response to price, risk, cost and expected costs Respondents are risk neutral

13. Problems Moral hazard: Δπ/Δx > 0 Strike Probabilities: ρ > y/t Subjective ρ > objective ρ