1. NATA Refresh, Progress, Stakeholder Involvement and Congestion TIF Paul O’Sullivan – Department for Transport

2. Congestion TIF What this talk covers: TIF process Modelling Road pricing – scheme design Packages Distribution Policy and related issues

3. Congestion TIF – the process TIF – what are we looking for:  an effective way of addressing a local congestion problem  the potential for early implementation of the demand management scheme  bring benefits across a wide geographical area  offer high value for money  investment on a scale proportionate to the impacts of the demand management scheme. Proposals or schemes under development:  Manchester, Cambridge  Bristol, Reading, Leeds, 3 cities, T&W Considering both support for post-bid development funding and preparatory costs for new bids.

4. Modelling Assignment – surprisingly challenging Demand models - very challenging Specific issues  Validation standards and fitness for purpose  Segmentation issues, particularly income segmentation  Lack of locally calibrated demand models - and local evidence on hierarchies.  Realism testing - esp. comparison to outturn fuel cost elasticities.  Sensitivity tests for forecasts  Convergence  Micro switching  Slow modes/ smarter choices Land use modelling Capacity, capability and time constraints.

5. Road pricing – design issues Performance of road pricing schemes hugely dependent on scheme design and targeting congestion Use of MECC (or MSC?) Wide range of MECCs Use of congestion plans (V/C plots for links/junctions) and select link analysis rather than MECCs to help scheme design Complexity versus simplicity Understanding of transaction costs – still wide ranges, and not clear how optimism bias should be handled Discounts and exemptions Assumptions about future charge levels are critical for performance (assumptions about projection of benefits over time also have big impact on scheme economics).

6. TIF packages We need to understand that the package is proportionate and of reasonable scale. Guidance suggests looking at all schemes over £20m. In practice though need to bundle schemes, and test broad schemes or measures Often interested in performance of scheme at the margin eg what do last 10% of smarter choices or bus priority offer Package will need to address distributional and social impacts of schemes, and potentially labour market accessibility impacts Strong preference that the package is modelled in a single model or modelling suite Economics and modelling of packages not straightforward

7. TIF packages Complexity of decremental and incremental analysis in building up and testing vfm of packages. Impact depends on extent to which elements complementary or substitutes.

8. Congestion TIF – some conclusions For demand management, particularly local road pricing distributional analysis becomes critical. So likely to need a wider range of metrics eg vfm plus social impacts Need to keep analysis tractable eg start with goal – tackle congestion, choose main means of doing eg road pricing scheme and then explore complementary measures Performance of road pricing schemes hugely dependent on scheme design and targeting congestion Catch-22 - in practice having a well worked up road pricing scheme early on makes development of the package and political process much easier. But want road pricing schemes to based upon full modelling and detailed design Trade off between the most efficient package and one that is publicly acceptable?