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3. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING Lesson Goals: Determine the probability of simple and compound events. (Q.8.b) Interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. (CCSS.Math.Content.HSS.CP.A.4)CCSS.Math.Content.HSS.CP.A.4.

4. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING 4 What you will do in this lesson: Think & work alone Think, Pair, Share Cooperative Learning in Small Groups

5. Basics of Probability Video http://www.topmarks.co.uk/Flas h.aspx?a=activity23 5

6. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING 6 What does finding the probability that an event will occur mean to you? How many different ways can probability be represented mathematically? What are they? Would the probability ever be zero? Justify your answer. Would the probability ever be one? Justify your answer. If the event is “flipping a heads” on a coin, what is the “complement” of that event? What would be true about adding the probability of an event and its complement? In your own words…

7. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING Probability Facts 7 Probability can be expressed as a fraction, decimal, or percent between 0 and 1, inclusive. If it is impossible for the event to happen, the probability is 0. If it is certain that the event will happen, the probability is 1. If two events are equally likely to happen, the probability is ½,.5, or 50%. The sum of an event and its complement is 1. Probability = number of desired outcomes total number of possible outcomes

8. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING Independent vs. Dependent 8 Suppose we wanted to choose a 4-digit pin number where the numbers could be repeated; how many different pin numbers could we choose from? _____ x _____ x _____ x _____ = _____

9. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING Independent vs. Dependent 9 Suppose we wanted to choose a 4-digit pin number where the numbers could NOT be repeated; how many different pin numbers could we choose from? _____ x _____ x _____ x _____ = _____

10. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVINGDefinitions 10 Independent event – the probability of a second event does not depend on the first event Dependent event – the probability of a second event does depend on the first event

11. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING The SOLVE method… 11 S tudy the problem (What am I trying to find?) O rganize the facts (What do I know?) L ine up a plan (What steps will I take?) V erify your plan with action (How will I carry out my plan?) E xamine the results (Does my answer make sense? If not, rework.) Always double check!

12. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING S – Study the problem. 12 What is the problem asking me to do? Find the question. A spinner has 6 equal sections. Two sections are red, 3 sections are blue, and 1 section is green. What is the probability of spinning a red section twice? p. 23 in the GED Test Exercise Book / Common Core Achieve / Mathematics by McGraw Hill Education, #8

13. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING O – Organize the facts. 13 What do I know? A spinner has 6 equal sections. Two sections are red, 3 sections are blue, and 1 section is green. What is the probability of spinning a red section twice?

14. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING L – Line up a plan. 14

15. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING V – Verify your plan with action V – Verify your plan with action. 15

16. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING E – Examine the results. 16 Does my answer make sense?

17. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING Using the SOLVE method 17 P. 23 in the GED Test Exercise Book / Common Core Achieve / Mathematics by McGraw Hill Education, #9 A bag has 5 red marbles and 4 white marbles. Aaron draws a marble, sets it aside, and draws a second marble. What is the probability that Aaron will draw a white marble on both draws ?

18. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING S – Study the problem. 18 What is the problem asking me to do? Find the question. The table below shows the last 25 cell-phone cover purchases at Cell Phone Hut. The best prediction for the number of red covers sold of the next 100 sales is 40. Complete the table. p. 23 in the GED Test Exercise Book / Common Core Achieve / Mathematics by McGraw Hill Education, #7 ColorNumber Red Yellow Blue8

19. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING O – Organize the facts. 19 What do I know? The table below shows the last 25 cell- phone cover purchases at Cell Phone Hut. The best prediction for the number of red covers sold of the next 100 sales is 40. Complete the table. ColorNumber Red Yellow Blue8

20. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING L – Line up a plan. 20

21. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING V – Verify your plan with action. 21

22. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING E – Examine the results. 22 Does my answer make sense?

23. INSTRUCTIONAL BEST PRACTICES FOR TEACHING QUANTITATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING Using Probability to Interpret Data 23 The manager of the pizza shop wanted to know what kind of pizza slices customers order during lunch. She collected this data during one lunch session. Suppose 200 slices are expected to be sold in one week. Use the data to estimate how many cheese slices will be ordered in a week. PizzasSlices Ordered Pepperoni25 Sausage10 Cheese50 Mushroom15