Presentation on theme: "Conflict Analysis Joakim Kreutz Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University."— Presentation transcript:
Conflict Analysis Joakim Kreutz Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Objectives of the Lecture Introduce a method to analyse conflicts Speak a common language; agreement on a specific terminology Make a link between conflict analysis and context analysis in your (change) project
What is Conflict Analysis? A method for presenting a systematic analysis of a conflict at a given moment in time, usually with some conclusions relating to e.g. risk assessment, scenario analysis, or conflict sensitivity
Why Conflict Analysis? To better understand a conflict for the purpose of improving decision-making, e.g. in regards to conflict prevention, management, and resolution Improved understanding of the context in which different organizations work and their role in it Relevant both for actors working ”on” and ”in” conflict Relevant both from perspective of ”Do No Harm” and ”Do Maximum Good” Relevant for all types of conflicts, not just armed/political
How to do a Conflict Analysis? Different analytical frameworks and methodologies available Methods: desk study or in the field, outside (neutral) or inside (partial) view Sources: reports and previous analyses, official documents and statements, academic studies, interviews, stakeholder workshops
Definition of conflict ”A social situation in which a minimum of two actors (parties) strive to acquire at the same moment in time an available set of scarce resources” (Wallensteen 2007: 15)
Level of Analysis? International Regional Country Community/Group Individual
1. Parties (Actors) Primary parties: The central actors who are pursuing the issues at stake in the conflict Secondary parties: Actors who support the primary parties and indirectly affect the dynamic of the conflict Third parties: Actors who are outside the conflict and are helping the primary parties to resolve it
The Character of the Parties Composition of the party: degrees of cohesion or fragmentation Type of leadership Basis for mobilization The relationship between the group and its constituency and with the society at large
Power Resources and Power Relations Power resources of the primary parties Economic, military, political International status, popular support, alliances, legitimacy Power relations between the parties (primary + secondary) Symmetry Assymetry
Questions Who are the primary parties to the conflict? What are the characters of the primary parties? Who are the secondary parties? Is there a third party? What power resources do the primary parties have? What is the power relation between the parties? Are power relations symmetrical or assymetrical?
Conflict Issues AttitudesBehaviour The Conflict Triangle
2. Conflict Issues Positions (subjective demands) Offensive or defensive positions (Change/status quo) General or specific positions Underlying interests (values, resources) Material or Immaterial interests Divisible or non-divisible interests Absolute or relative interests
Questions What is the issue at stake or the incompatibility in question? What are the parties positions (subjective definition) in regards to the issue? Are the positions offensive or defensive? Are the positions expressed in general or specific terms? What are the underlying interests that can explain the parties’ positions?
3. Conflict Behaviour The actions and strategies that parties use to reach their goals or prevent others from reaching their goals Violent and non-violent actions The targeting of certain individuals, groups or regions; gender aspects of violence, targeting of civilians Selective or indiscriminate?
Questions What types of conflict behaviour have been used in the conflict? Are some groups in society more likely to be targeted for violence than others?
4. Conflict Attitudes Emotional or psychological states in a conflict situation; fear, hate, anger, suspicion Cognitive processes; negative attitudes and perceptions Influence on norms; individual, communal, societal
Questions Which conflict attitudes are commonly displayed by the conflicting parties and/or in society at large? Try to differentiate between emotional states and cognitive processes Which norms are prevalent in society? In general? As an effect of the conflict? On violence, on governance, on gender roles?
5. Conflict Dynamics A comprehensive analysis of conflict dynamics inlcude a study of the causes of conflict, the context in which the conflict takes place, and its development over time The key concern is how the different components of the conflict triangle – issues, behavior and attitudes – relate to each other over time
What is escalation? Two different understandings: From light to heavy tactics (more destructive) and/or geographical spread of violence But also an intensification of the conflict as a whole – in all corners of the Conflict Triangle
What happens when conflicts escalate? From few to many parties (new parties, splits, new alliances) From few and small to many and large issues From specific to general issues From light to heavy tactics (more destructive behaviour) From doing well (absolute gain) to winning (relative gain) to hurting Other (Other’s loss)
Why do they escalate? Temporary emotional states (fear, anger, blame) lead to structural (permanent) changes at different levels of analysis Individual level: e.g. stereotypes, deindividualization, dehumanization Group level: e.g. group polarization, militant leaders Community level: community polarization, segregation
Escalation and conflict resolution? These structural changes tend to become self-reinforcing through the development of self-confirmatory mechanisms at different levels of analysis Individual level: self-fulfilling prophecy, selective information processing Group level: development of vested interests, war economy, war political order Community level: destruction of crosscutting organisations, disappearance of neutral parties
Conflict Issues AttitudesBehaviour The Conflict Triangle
Questions Has the parties changed over time? Has the conflict issues changed over time? Has more issues been added? Have they been generalized? Has the conflict behaviour of the parties changed over time? Has there been phases of escalation and de-escalation? Has the conflict attitudes of the parties changed over time? Has there been a polarization of the conflict?
6. Conflict Resolution Change of/in parties Different mechanisms in place for resolving issues through redrawing of territorial boundaries or governance arrangements Addressing conflict behaviour through ceasefires and DDR & SSR processes Adressing conflict attitudes through confidence building measures, reconciliation, transitional justice
Questions In what way does the suggested solution affect the structure of the parties to the conflict? How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the conflict issues? In what ways does it address conflict behaviour? Does it affect the social relations between the parties and their conflict attitudes?
Questions +1 In what way does the suggested solution affect the structure of the parties to the conflict? How does it attempt to manage or dissolve the conflict issues? In what ways does it address conflict behaviour? Does it affect the social relations between the parties and their conflict attitudes? How does conflict resolution affect other parties (violent and non-violent)?