1. Dynamical balances and tropical stratospheric upwelling Bill Randel and Rolando Garcia NCAR Thanks to: Qiang Fu, Andrew Gettelman, Rei Ueyama, Mike Wallace, plus WACCM group at NCAR.

2. Background: Well-known seasonal cycle in tropical tropopause temperature, forced by upwelling Tropical upwelling explained as a result of wave-driven stratospheric circulation (from extratropics) –Yulaeva et al (1994), Holton et al (1995), Rosenlof (1995) –Larger in NH winter because of stronger stratospheric forcing –But need wave-driving to reach deep into tropics (Plumb and Eluszkiewicz, 1999) Tropical waves may also be important –seasonality tied to tropical wave response to convection –Boehm and Lee (2003), Dima et al (2005; 2007), Kerr-Munslow and Norton (2006), Norton (2006)

3. Temperature, ozone and upwelling at 17.5 km temp and ozone in phase, approximately in quadrature with upwelling Ozone is a response to upwelling: Randel et al., JAS, 2007 Both temperature and ozone respond to seasonal cycle in w* but what forces the seasonal cycle in upwelling? upwelling w* Q 10 N – 10 S ERA40 w*

4. Science questions: How strong is tropical upwelling? What is the detailed vertical structure within TTL and above? (how good are reanalyses?) How is this partitioned locally (deep convection vs. clear sky)? What are the dynamical balances within TTL? * Note thermodynamic balance is mainly a response to dynamic forcing What forces the seasonal cycle in upwelling? (and hence temperature and ozone). What are the contributions from the tropics and extratropics? What causes increased upwelling in climate change experiments?

5. This talk: Compare estimates of upwelling from: –thermodynamic balance –momentum balance –ERA40 and NCEP reanalyses Diagnose momentum balance for upwelling at 100 hPa –tropical vs. extratropical wave forcing Examine upwelling trends in WACCM

6. Thermodynamic balance estimates of w* use accurate radiative transfer code, with input temps from GPS climatology, and climatological trace gases combine with continuity equation, solve iteratively to get w* Q should be accurate in stratosphere (Q dominated by radiation) (some uncertainties for cloud effects near tropopause)

7. Estimates of tropical upwelling from ‘downward control’ (momentum balance plus continuity) EP flux divergence sensitive calculation: dependent on EP fluxes in low latitudes proportional to 1/f + continuity Haynes et al, 1991

8. w* annual cycle at 100 hPa (ERA40 data) w* m w* Q ERA40 w*

9. w* annual cycle at 100 hPa (NCEP data) NCEP w* problematic NCEP w* m reasonable w* Q

10. contours: 0.25 mm/sec latitude-time variation in upwelling w* Q ERA40 w* -0.5

11. latitudinal structure of annual mean w* at 100 hPa w* m w* Q note differences in subtropics ERA40 w*

12. vertical structure of annual mean w* 15 o N-S 1)Zonal mean upwelling is continuous across TTL 2)Good agreement between w* and w* M (use momentum balance to diagnose forcing ) Q clear Sky = 0 most confidence in w* Q in stratosphere ERA40 w* w* m

13. Clear sky, clouds, and zonal mean upwelling of tropical area from reanalysis and w* m from radiative calculations inferred strong upwelling above convection

14. contribution of separate terms in EP flux to calculated w* M at 100 hPa w* M v’T’ dU/dt u’w’ u’v’ result: momentum flux u’v’ is the dominant term

15. Climatological EP fluxes EP flux divergence in subtropics mainly associated with tropospheric baroclinic waves

16. JFM JAS seasonal variation in subtropical wave forcing * how much of the subtropical forcing comes from tropical waves (versus extratropics)? Equatorial planetary waves

17. eddy fluxes associated with tropical planetary waves (Dima et al., 2005) u’v’ < 0 u’v’ > 0 note balance of Hadley v* with d/dy (u’v’) strong annual cycle of tropical waves

18. What drives the annual cycle of subtropical d/dy (u’v’) ? result: a combination of extratropical eddies and equatorial planetary waves climatological u’v’ at 100 hPa extratropical waves equatorial planetary waves extratropical waves

19. tropics (15 N-S) extratropics result: extratropics (baroclinic eddies) contribute to time-mean upwelling tropical planetary waves mainly drive annual cycle at 100 hPa climatological u’v’ at 100 hPa extratropical waves equatorial planetary waves extratropical waves total estimate contributions from tropical / extratropical u’v’ (set tropical wave fluxes = 0 over 15 o N-S)

20. Summary 1)Reasonable agreement between w* m, w* Q, w* (at 100 hPa) 2)100 hPa w* m in balance with subtropical u’v’ convergence -u’v’ associated with extratropical baroclinic eddies and tropical planetary waves. - annual mean upwelling primarily due to extratropics -seasonal cycle at 100 hPa mainly due to tropical waves

21. Models suggest an increase in stratospheric tropical upwelling (Brewer-Dobson circulation) in future climates Butchart et al., 2006 ~2% / decade increase

22. Upwelling balance in WACCM, and long-term trends: 100 hPa w* Climatology w* w* m

23. Annual mean upwelling over 15 N-S w* w* m Q clear sky=0

24. Climatological EP flux in WACCM Overall balance in WACCM very similar to observations

25. Upwelling trends for 1950-2003 (CCMval Ref1) w* w* m Model ENSO events deseasonalized anomalies R=0.84

26. 1950-2003 trends in w* m Temperature trends 15 N-S note there is not a simple relation between w* and T trends

27. What causes the trends in w* m ? EP flux trends 1950-2003 Increase in equatorial planetary wave fluxes Similar result for JAS (not shown) Conclusion: for WACCM Ref1, increased upwelling results mainly from stronger equatorial planetary waves

28. WACCM 100 hPa u’v’ Trends in equatorial planetary wave fluxes

29. Summary: Dynamical balances in WACCM are very similar to observations - subtropical EP fluxes due to midlatitude baroclinic waves plus equatorial planetary waves In WACCM Ref1, trends in tropical upwelling are associated with stronger equatorial planetary waves (associated with warmer, moister tropical troposphere). Note transient increases are also observed for ENSO events.

30. Thank you

31. Ozone seasonal cycle has similar vertical structure to temperature ozonetemperature temps from SHADOZ stations and zonal mean GPS data

32. Well-known seasonal cycle of tropical tropopause temperature: cold point Annual cycle amplitude (K) from GPS data 4 Vertical profile at equator Dark line: GPS light lines: radiosondes Background:

33. A large annual cycle above the tropopause also occurs for ozone SHADOZ ozonesonde measurements over 1998-2006 SHADOZ data at Nairobi normalized annual cycle amplitude 17.5 km HALOE satellite SHADOZ stations narrow maximum above tropopause Ozone is also a response to seasonal cycle in upwelling Randel et al., JAS, 2007

34. Interannual changes in upwelling anomalies in calculated upwelling over 20 N-S tropopause temperature anomalies ERA40 NCEP r=-0.53 (I am surprised)

35. Interannual changes in upwelling anomalies in calculated upwelling over 20 N-S tropopause temperature anomalies ERA40 NCEP r=-0.53 (I am surprised) r=.72 HALOE satellite data