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2005 Results Announcement  2005 Results  Share Price Comparison  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan.

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Presentation on theme: "2005 Results Announcement  2005 Results  Share Price Comparison  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan."— Presentation transcript:

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2 2005 Results Announcement  2005 Results  Share Price Comparison  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion Agenda

3 2005 Results Announcement HandysizeBulkCarriersPanamaxBulkCarriersCapesizeBulkCarriersChemicalTankersProductTankersContainershipsTotal Average number of ships17,31,76,82,06,51,535,8 Revenue (US$/day)18,00020,60026,70011,60019,80011,40019,500 Cost (US$/day) (Incl interest)7,7008,60018,00010,40012,4008,40010,700 Annual Contribution (US$m)65,07,421,60,917,61,7114,2 Trading Profit on ship sale (US$m)9,8 Ship Contributions (US$m)124,0 Ship Contributions (Rm)786 Other Shipping Operations / Overheads / Forex / Other interest37 Taxation(30) Earnings - Shipping (Contribution to Group profits - 89% (2004 – 91%))793 Earnings - Trading, Freight and Financial Services120 Group Overheads / Interest / STC / Pref dividends(62) Total Earnings Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders851 Detailed Income Statement 2005 Results

4 2005 Results Announcement 2005Rm2004RmComments Fixed Assets / Investments7,1144,849Ships / Landfreight expansion / Increased market value, Goodwill Current Assets1,754449Trading / Assets held for sale Total Assets8,8685,298 Equity6,4833,833Earnings / Pref issue / Increased market value Net Debt879630 Other Liabilities1,506835Trading / New consol Total Equity and Liabilities8, 8685,298 Balance Sheet - Including Mark to Market Values 2005 Results Net Debt : Equity0,14 : 10,17 : 1

5 2005 Results Announcement 2005Rm Cash From Operations1,239 Preference Share Capital Raised488 Dividend Paid(201) Capex(1,704) - Ships612 - Bulk Product Trading834 - Freight / Other258 Finance Raised236 Other32 Net Cash Flow90 Cash Flow 2005 Results

6 2005 Results Announcement Ordinary share performance 2005200420032002200120001999 No. of ordinary shares in issue m 461,6454,6480,7472,5496,6570,8570,4 Weighted average ordinary shares m 458,5450,2477,7480,9527,7570,4 Headline Earnings per share cents 185,3121,450,235,024,513,1(11.9) Earnings per share cents 185,7121,350,234,424,113,0(11,6) Cash Earnings per share cents 214,1164,746,133,931,316,3(7,0) Dividends per share cents 52,035,012,08,05,64,0- Dividend cover times 3,53,44,2 4,13,3- Cash dividend cover times 4,14,73,84,15,34,1- Net worth per share at market value cents 1,300841 Key Performance Indicators 2005 Results

7 2005 Results Announcement ProfitabilityTgt200520042003 2002200120001999 Operating margin % 12,420,214,59,68,18,7(4,1) Margin excluding Trading % 24,220,214,59,68,18,7(4,1) Return on net assets % 39,639,019,914,711,010,6(2,7) Return on ordinary s/h funds % 17,574,675,742,426,720,216,1(15,9) Return on market value % 17,3 Key Performance Indicators 2005 Results Leverage and liquidity Tgt2005200420032002200120001999 Total liabilities to total shareholders’ interests % 130,2177,1125,6184,598,8155,9233,5 Interest bearing debt to total shareholders’ interests % 100,033,053,361,0106,629,2105,5157,8 Interest bearing debt to total shareholders’ interests net of working capital % 15,886,248,1116,751,3113,6166,3 Interest cover X 3,010,79,74,25,63,42,0(0,7) Cash flow to total liabilities % 20,036,847,822,113,316,411,5(4,4) Current ratio1,01,10,81,00,61,00,9

8 2005 Results Announcement  2005 Results  Share Price Comparison  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion  2005 Results  Share Price Comparison  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion

9 2005 Results Announcement Share Price Comparison2005Rm2004Rm NAV per Balance Sheet1,449833 Value of ships over book value1,130273 Value of charters1,4291,820 Value of options583450 Management valuation of unrecognised value in operations1,404450 Market NAV5,9953,826 Market NAV per shareR 13,00R 8,40 % of current share price107 %94 % Mark to Market Valuation (See Appendix 1 for detail) Current P/E ratios - JSE average 15,2 - JSE Transport Index 12,8 - Average of SA peer group 11,4 - Grindrod 7,6

10 2005 Results Announcement  2005 Results  Share Price Comparison  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion  2005 Results  Share Price Comparison  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion

11 2005 Results Announcement 2006Number19,42,05,43,65,71,837,9 Cost (US$/day)8,0009,10020,50011,60012,3008,70010,900 2007Number20,72,05,16,26,41,041,4 Cost (US$/day)8,0009,10020,40012,10012,3008,90010,900 2008Number20,72,04,59,97,71,045,8 Cost (US$/day)8,0009,10019,30011,50011,9008,40010,600 Contracted In at 31/12/05 Handysize Bulk Carriers Panamax Bulk Carriers Capesize Bulk Carriers Chemical Tankers Product Tankers Container ships Total Fleet Summary - Owned + Long Term Charter Fleet Current Spot Market Rates (US$/day) 15,00018,00046,00015,50025,00012,00020,500 Number of ships to deliver (included in average number above) 2006+ 1-- 1+ 3+ 1-+ 4 2007+ 1--+ 3+ 1- 1+ 4 2008+ 1-- 2+ 4+ 2-+ 5 Fleet at end of 20082123119147

12 2005 Results Announcement In addition:  Earnings from non-shipping operations  Reinvestment of cash generated  Profit from sale of Marriott Contracted Income Fleet Contracted Out at 31/12/05 Handysize Bulk Carriers Panamax Bulk Carriers Capesize Bulk Carriers Chemical Tankers Product Tankers Container ships Total 2006Number7,72,03,41,64,21,820,7 Revenue (US$/day)11,20020,60032,00014,80017,40013,20017,200 2007Number4,32,02,12,03,01,014,4 Revenue (US$/day)8,60020,70035,00016,70018,5009,60017,400 2008Number1,41,01,4-2,01,06,8 Revenue (US$/day)11,00020,70035,000-21,0009,60020,100 Contracted Earnings200620072008 Owned / Long Term ChartersUS$ 41 mUS$ 28 mUS$ 18 m Contracted ship saleUS$ 8 m-- TotalUS$ 49 mUS$ 28 mUS$ 18 m  Ongoing process to keep high % of fleet contracted out  Further ship sales  Will look for opportunities in lower markets % of fleet contracted out (by dwt) 200620072008 61 %41 %20 %

13 2005 Results Announcement  2005 Results  Share Price Comparison  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion  2005 Results  Share Price Comparison  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion

14 2005 Results Announcement Handysize Shipping Markets Handysize Bulkcarrier Earnings No. of ships% Fixed OutRate / day 200619,440 %US$ 11,200 200720,721 %US$ 8,600 200820,77 %US$ 11,000 Current market at US$ 15,000 per day Average Contracted Revenue Average Fleet Cost Comments:  Least affected by recent Chinese New Year but has still recovered positively  Weaker summer predicted but 2006 rates expected to vary between US$ 12,000 - US$ 17,000 per day  Old fleet - scrapping will have to take place  Supply / Demand fundamentals are favourable  SA parcel service benefits in lower markets, therefore is an additional hedge  Ships redeliver soon, therefore should get higher earnings

15 2005 Results Announcement Panamax Shipping Markets Average Contracted Revenue Average Fleet Cost Current market at US$ 18,000 per day No. of ships% Fixed OutRate / day 20062100 %US$ 20,600 20072100 %US$ 20,700 20082 50 %US$ 20,700 Comments:  No exposure for some time

16 2005 Results Announcement Capesize Shipping Markets Average Contracted Revenue Average Fleet Cost Current market at US$ 46,000 per day No. of ships% Fixed OutRate / day 20065,463 %US$ 32,000 20075,141 %US$ 35,000 20084,5 31 %US$ 35,000 Comments:  Expected to remain volatile throughout 2006 (between US$ 25,000 and US$ 50,000 per day with occasional spikes)  Main driver still Chinese iron ore / coal  Supply still tight – new deliveries will take up consumption growth  Will look for further cover

17 2005 Results Announcement Products Shipping Markets Comments:  Continued demand, especially in China  Phase out of single hull tankers  Implementation of Marpol Annex II requirements for the carriage of vegetable oils  Order books full through to 2009 / 2010  Newbuilding prices (to 2009 / 2010) and period rates show no real prospect of easing, indicating optimistic view for the future No. of ships% Fixed OutRate / day 20065,774 %US$ 17,400 20076,447 %US$ 18,500 20087,726 %US$ 21,000 Average Contracted Revenue Average Fleet Cost Current market at US$ 25,000 per day

18 2005 Results Announcement Chemicals Shipping Markets Comments:  Demand is expected to grow at between 5 - 6 % over the next 5 years  Chemical exports out of the Arabian Gulf will grow significantly over the next 5 years (increase in tonne-miles)  Implementation of new regulations with respect to vegetable oils will contribute to the tightening of the supply and demand situation  Single hull phase out will contribute to a tightening of supply  Shipyards are full through to 2009 and to a growing degree in 2010  The cost of newbuildings is high and shows a firming trend  Product markets are expected to remain firm, fueled by high import demand from the USA and China No. of ships% Fixed OutRate / day 20063,644 %US$ 14,800 20076,232 %US$ 16,700 20089,9-- Current average spot earnings on Grindrod chemical tankers = US$ 15,500 per day Average Contracted Revenue Average Fleet Cost

19 2005 Results Announcement  2005 Results  Share Price Comparisons  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion  2005 Results  Share Price Comparisons  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion

20 2005 Results Announcement Bulk Product Trading Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Provide procurement, logistical and shipping services to end users  Agricultural and mining commodities + shipping bunker fuel  Brand names  Atlas  Oreport  Cockett  Mainly back-to-back trades - limited open positions  High level of risk management  Looking to expand to new markets

21 2005 Results Announcement Landfreight Logistics Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Provision of terminal / warehousing, transport, logistical services and ships agency  Operations: African Portland Industrial Holdings Limited Terminal / warehousing operations Transportation - Road & Rail Logistical Services Ships Agents

22 2005 Results Announcement Landfreight Logistics Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Continued expansion through: -Terminals -Road -Rail -Logistical Services -Organic growth / Bedding down of new acquisitions -Minimal goodwill paid, therefore once bedded down will perform  But: -Will be done judiciously -NAV based - no large goodwill  BEE will be key  Strengthening of management team Financial Services  Grow banking

23 2005 Results Announcement  2005 Results  Share Price Comparisons  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion  2005 Results  Share Price Comparisons  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion

24 2005 Results Announcement Business Plan  Today's financial position -Good earnings -Strong balance sheet -Good cash flow -PE of 7,6 vs Transport Index of 12,8 -Share price 107% of market NAV  Today’s commercial position: -Low cost, expanding fleet – 61% fixed for 2006 -Handysize bulk carriers – good margin / lower margin ships return from charter in 2006 -Capesize bulk carriers – good margin / 63% fixed out for 2006 -Panamax bulk carriers – fixed out for good margins -Product / Chemical tankers – high market / ships fixed out at good margins / some ship sales to lock in profits

25 2005 Results Announcement Business Plan  Sustain growth in earnings -Cross section of shipping markets -Fix in annuity income -Ship sales -Develop less cyclical businesses / Target 25% of 2006 earnings  Capex - R1,5 bn committed over next 3 years - R4 bn available for additional capex over next 3 years Will buy back shares if PE ratio remains attractive Increase in non shipping business to 1/3 of profits Restocking of fleet in lower markets Develop Grindrod Bank to much larger player  Position could be enhanced if: - Shipping markets strengthen - Rand weakens - Really good buys come along

26 2005 Results Announcement Business Plan Power of Compound example Annual earnings assuming 10% ROI after interest (Rm) 2,000 127 2006 1,000 335 2007 1,000 483 2008 538 627 338 2,538 1,627 1,338 Committed capex (Rm) Additional annual capex to get to 80% gearing (Rm) Excludes possible R3bn of additional borrowings against full market value of assets

27 2005 Results Announcement  2005 Results  Share Price Comparisons  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion  2005 Results  Share Price Comparisons  Fleet  Shipping Markets  Trading, Freight and Financial Services  Business Plan  Conclusion

28 2005 Results Announcement Conclusion  It will be calmer waters with a bigger ship for a while  See no reason to rush it for the sake of trying to grow earnings at the pace of the past  No doubt that Grindrod will see super growth again in time when shipping markets turn, the Rand shows some weakness, and the power of compound works from a very good base

29 2005 Results Announcement

30 2005 Results Announcement R m NAV per Balance Sheet 1,449 Less Book Value of ships (1,640) Add Market Value of ships Average market value Product TankersUS$ 45 m Handysize Bulk CarriersUS$ 25 m 2,770 Add Present Value of charters No. of ships Period of charter remaining Projected Spot Earnings PV @ 8% Handysize Bulk Carriers188 yrsUS$ 11000US$ 124 m Panamax Bulk Carriers 29 yrsUS$ 15,000US$ 25 m Capesize Bulk Carriers 74 yrsUS$ 24,000US$ 28 m Chemical Tankers 613 yrsUS$ 20,000US$ 28 m Product Tankers 26 yrsUS$ 14,900US$ 21 mUS$ 226 m1,429 Add Present Value of purchase options at end of charter No. of ships Average option price Expected market value PV @ 8% Handysize Bulk Carriers15US$ 9,5 mUS$ 14,3 mUS$ 39 m Panamax Bulk Carriers 2US$ 13,1 mUS$ 17,3 mUS$ 4 m Chemical Tankers 5US\$ 29,0 mUS$ 35,8 mUS$ 31 m Product Tankers 2US$ 28,0 mUS$ 37,5 mUS$ 18 mUS$ 92 m583 Management valuation of unrecognised value in operations 1,404 Market NAV 5,995 Market NAV per share R 13 Mark to Market Valuation Appendix 1


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