Presentation on theme: "Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at Balkan Endgame and Economic."— Presentation transcript:
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Balkan Endgame and Economic Transformation Vladimir Gligorov
2 Contents > The game > International actors > Emerging economic region > EU prospects
3 The game > The choice was: > to democratize and negotiate a proper federal structure, or > take control over the party and the army and either –centralise Serbia and then Yugoslavia, or –integrate Serbian lands.
4 International environment > American authority, > European Union conditional promise of integration, > regional normalization, and > UN cooperation.
5 Economic transformation > Relatively fast and sustained growth based on growth of productivity, i.e., on increased efficiency and not on growth of employment. > High and sustained inflow of foreign investment due to relatively fast decrease of risks due to political stability, institutional change and the prospect of EU integration. > Delayed restructuring of the public sector and recurrent fiscal problems.
6 Balkan specifics > Slow reindustrialization > High external imbalances > Distorted labour market
7 Balkan specifics > Macroeconomic stability not really a problem, at least when it comes to inflation > Exchange rate stability not a problem > Fiscal prudence
8 Real GDP growth in NMS-5 and SEEC 1990 = 100
9 Annual GDP growth rates change in % against preceding year
wiiw forecast Bulgaria Croatia Romania Turkey Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Macedonia Montenegro Serbia GDP real change in % against previous year
11 Industrial production in South Eastern Europe (1990 = 100)
12 Gross industrial production in NMS-5 and SEEC year on year, growth in %, 3-month moving average
13 Labour productivity in industry in SEEC and NMS-5, 1990 = 100 Note: CS data 2005 Serbia only.
14 Exports per capita in NMS-5 and SEEC in EUR (goods trade only)
15 FDI stock per capita in NMS-5 and SEEC , EUR
16 FDI, exports and balances > FDI increasing but not dramatically > Exports growing > Level low > Deficits high > Comparative advantages in labor or resource intensive sectors
17 FDI stock per capita in NMS-5 and SEEC EUR
18 Foreign trade: Exports cumulated period, annual change in % AL, BA: Data refer to bolance of payment statistic.
19 Foreign trade: Imports cumulated period, annual change in % AL, BA: Data refer to bolance of payment statistic.
20 Trade balance (commodities) in % of GDP in SEEC and NMS customs statics Note: Montenegro Data refer to 2003
21 Current account in % of GDP in NMS-5 and SEEC 2005
22 Private transfers in SEE % GDP
23 Average monthly gross wages in industry, EUR (ER), in SEEC and NMS-5 Note: RO net wages, Serbia data 2000 refer to 2001, Montenegro 2005 data refer to 2003
27 Unemployment Rates, 2000, 2005 in % of labour force, average, LFS Note: Albania, registration data, end of period
28 Policy responses > Fiscal policy prudent > Monetary policy the main instrument > Credit controls not the proper instrument
29 General government budget % of GDP Montenegro: Central budget.
30 Consumer price inflation, change in % against preceeding year
Prognose Bulgarien Rumänien Kroatien Mazedonien Türkei Albanien Bosnien und Herzegowina Montenegro Serbien Verbraucherpreise Veränderungen gegen das Vorjahr in % Quelle: wiiw-Jahresdatenbank, Prognosen: wiiw, Juli 2006.
32 Current account and gross external debt in % of GDP Current account Gross external debt
33 Share of total foreign debt in GDP, in %
34 Anteil der privaten an der gesamten Auslandsverschuldung, in % Quelle: Nationalbank des jeweiligen Landes.
35 Reale Wechselkurse, (EUR per NCU, VPI-deflationiert, Veränderung gegenüber Vorjahr) Anmerkung: Ansteigende Linie bedeutet reale Aufwertung. Quelle: wiiw-Monatsdatenbank, nationale Statistiken.
36 Leitzinssätze, nominell in % p.a. Quelle: Nationalbank des jeweiligen Landes.
37 Bank credit to the private sector, Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; national data; BIS estimates CSROBGTRALHUBAHRSIMKPLSKCZEUR Nominal growth (cumulative, in percent) (lhs)Real growth (compound rate, % per year) (rhs)
38 Bank credit to the private sector, (increase in percent of GDP, annual average) Sources: National data; BIS estimates.
39 Real growth of credit, (cumulative growth rate, in percent) BG RO BA CS AL SI TR HU MK HR CZ PL SK Enterprises RO CS BG AL TR MK HU BA SKCZ HR SI PL Households Source: National data; BIS estimates.
40 Source: IMF; BIS estimates. Commercial bank liabilities, (annual pct change, quarterly average ) Time, savings and foreign currency deposits Foreign liabilities ROBGSKHRSIHUPLTRMKCZ
41 Capital controls Quantitative restrictions Reserve requirements Albania 10% Bosnia and Herzegovina 15% Bulgaria 23% per year increasing after the limit Croatia 17 % to 55% (marginal) Macedonia 10% Montenegro 23% Romania 35% to increase to 40% Serbia 18% to 38% on foreign currency
42 Western Balkan free trade area > Free trade area from January 1, 2007 > The area is small and the intra-regional trade is segmented > Distortions through different trade regimes with the EU and the rest of the world
43 SEE trade: exports as % of total (2004) percentage point change in shares * EU-4 = Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy.
44 SEE trade: imports as % of total (2004) percentage point change in shares * EU-4 = Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy.
45 Exportanteile 2005 Veränderung der Anteile in Prozentpunkten, von: ALB B&H BUL CRO MAC ROM S&M RUS nach: Albanien Bosnien und Herzegowina Gesamtveränderung, Mrd. USD * EU-4 = AUT, GER, GRE, ITA. Quelle: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics.
46 Importanteile 2005 Veränderung der Anteile in Prozentpunkten, * EU-4 = AUT, GER, GRE, ITA Quelle: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics.
47 Political challenges > Unfinished process of disintegration > Montenegro referendum > Kosovo negotiations > Bosnia and Herzegovina connection > Regional integration
48 Stability > Inflation speeding up > Real exchange rates apreciating > Policies mainly prudent
49 EU prospects > The Hague Tribunal > Stabilization and Association Agreement > Democratization > Threat of populism
50 SEE EU accession forecast SAANegotiationsEUeuro Bulgaria Romania Croatia Macedonia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Serbia Montenegro Kosovo 1995 (EAA) by 2015 after by 2017 since 2002