1. Swimming Upstream: Persons with Disabilities in the Contemporary Labor Market Edward Yelin and Laura Trupin University of California, San Francisco

2. Background-I Return to work (RTW) among disability beneficiaries occurs in about 1% of cases RTW among all persons with disability, including non-beneficiaries, occurs in about 2% of cases

3. Background-II Among persons not working, those with disabilities about 1/5 as likely to enter employment even after adjustment for differences in health and demographics Persons with disabilities who are working 2.5 times as likely to stop work even after adjustment

4. RTW Last Step in Longer Process-I For children with disabilities … –Transition from school to work takes longer For young adults with disabilities … –Transition from temporary or non-career to career jobs takes longer For adults in prime working years … –Less likely to obtain “secure” forms of work –Displaced from career jobs at earlier ages

5. RTW Last Step in Longer Process-II Older adults with disabilities take longer to obtain employment after job displacement “Permanent” RTW … –More likely to occur in contingent or temporary positions –Ratio of pre to post displacement pay is lower

6. Ticket to Work in Context of Work Life Rehab literature provides ample evidence that rates of RTW can be increased Increasing RTW among SSDI benefits by 500, however, would mean 95% still won’t be working Stanching the flow of persons with impairments who leave work before applying for benefits must be part of overall strategy to improve employment

7. 20/20 Hindsight on 1980’s Trends from1980 forward might have led to projection of decline in disability benefit applications … –Decrease in average physical demands of jobs –Increase in flexibility of hours, ability to work at home –Flattening of workplace hierarchies

8. Offsetting Workplace Trends Loss of security resulting in lower rates of jobs w. pensions, health insurance Growth in contingent forms of employment, including contract work, temp work, and consulting Increased cognitive job demands at time of increasing prevalence cognitive, mental impairments Increased rates of job displacement

9. UCSF DRI Projects: Projecting from Current Labor Market Trends Yr 1: Impact of contemporary working conditions on employment rates –Persons with disabilities with less secure forms of employment but, once employed, same working conditions

10. UCSF DRI Projects: Projecting from Current Labor Market Trends Yr 2: Stability of employment across years –Persons with disabilities with much higher rates of job displacement, after adjustment for health and demographic characteristics and characteristics of baseline employment –But: they also have forms of employment with a higher probability of job loss

11. UCSF DRI Projects: Projecting from Current Labor Market Trends Yr 3: Impact of Change in Distribution of Occupations and Industries, 1970-2001 –Persons with disabilities not adversely affected by changing distribution of occupations and industries –But … adversely affected by increased proportion of women working (crowding effect)

12. UCSF DRI Projects: Projecting from Current Labor Market Trends Yr 3: Impact of Change in Distribution of Occupations and Industries, 1970-2001 –Positive impact of proportion of disabled in workforce Assists in gaining access to occupations and industries Appears to be positive externality from growth in community of persons with disabilities at work

13. Net Result of Competing Trends Overall: worsening of employment rate for persons with disabilities Net effect of positive impact of growth in proportion of labor force with disabilities and … Negative effects of nature of contemporary labor market, particularly contingent forms of employment, and crowding phenomenon

14. Summary and Conclusions Persons with disabilities have been swimming upstream against powerful currents –Increased rates of displacement –Poor fit between cognitive demands of jobs and prevalent impairments –Increase in women’s labor force participation No labor market trends would allow optimism for near future (and those trends from 1980 that allowed for optimism were insufficiently strong)