1. Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society's Ability to Plan and Respond Chet Koblinsky Director, Climate Program Office CIOSS Oregon State University Corvallis, August, 30, 2005 NOAA’s Climate Programs

2. Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society's Ability to Plan and Respond Outcomes –A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions. –Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions. These outcomes require incremental, annual expansion of the observing system, focused research to understand key climate processes, improved modeling capabilities, and the development and delivery of climate information services. http://www.spo.noaa.gov/noaastratplanning.htm NOAA’s Climate Mission Goal

3. Performance Objectives –Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, analysis and data stewardship. [Observations and Analysis Program] –Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with an increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions. [Predictions and Projections Program] –Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate. [Climate Forcing Program] –Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. [ Climate and Ecosystems Program] –Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making. [Regional Decision Support Program]

4. NOAA Climate Program Overarching Organization NOAA Management PPI NOAA Research Climate Program Board NOAA Climate Program Office SAB External Advisory Panel Provides scientific and programmatic advice Program Development Made up of all NOAA LO’s Chaired by Goal Lead Program administration Directs Planning and Programs. Manages competitive grant programs: OGP, COSP, Argo, Arctic Climate activities within Line Offices and extramural partners

5. Climate Programs Observations and Analysis Program – Tom Karl Observations – Atmosphere, Ocean, Arctic Data Systems – CLASS, Scientific Data Stewardship Analyses – Ongoing analyses of the atmosphere Climate Forcing Program – Dan Albritton Aerosols and Atmospheric Composition Carbon and Greenhouse Gases Predictions and Projections Program – Ants Leetmaa Model Development Operational Predictions Long-term Projections Climate and Ecosystems – Ned Cyr North Pacific Climate Impacts on Ecosystems Regional Decision Support – Robert Livezey Research – RISA, Sectors Transition – NCTP Operations

6. Competitive Research Programs Observations and Analysis Program  Climate Change Data and Detection Program (CCDD)  Climate Observations Program Climate Forcing Program  Atmospheric Climate and Climate Program (ACC)  Global Carbon Cycle Program Science (GCC) Predictions and Projections Program  Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA)  Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CVP)  Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction Program (CDEP) Regional Decision Support Program  Sectoral Application and Research Program (SARP)  Regional Integrated Science and Support Program (RISA)  NOAA Climate Transition Program (NCTP)

7. FY05 Program CDEP CCDD ACC GCC CPPA CVP SARP RISA Ocean Obs GCOS FRN released in March via Grants.Gov FY06:289 proposals received FY05: 225 proposals, 78 funded, average award $92K/yr 217 existing grants with an average award of $217K

8. Program Thrusts in FY05 - FY06 FY05  Carbon  Aerosols  Ocean Obs FY06  Ocean Obs: Tropical Moorings - Indian Ocean  Scientific Data Stewardship  Ongoing Analyses of the Atmosphere  Aerosols - indirect effect  RISA

9. Future Directions Observations and Analyses –Arctic and IPY –Atmospheric Observations –Scientific Data Stewardship and CLASS Climate Forcing –Water Vapor –Regional emissions Predictions and Projections –Climate Test Bed –Earth System Modeling Climate and Ecosystems –Climate impacts on ecosystem – California Current LME Decision Support –Sectors: Drought (NIDIS), Coasts, urban, socio-economic –Operational climate services – who should do it?