1. Meteorology 485 Long Range Forecasting Friday, January 16, 2004

2. Medium Range Guidance Numerical Models Numerical Models GFS – NCEP’s Global Forecast System GFS – NCEP’s Global Forecast System From 6 to 384 hours; most forecast fields From 6 to 384 hours; most forecast fields Resolution changes at 180 hours (T126 to T62) Resolution changes at 180 hours (T126 to T62) Twelve member ensemble; 5 +, 5 -, 1 Cntl, 1 Opn Twelve member ensemble; 5 +, 5 -, 1 Cntl, 1 Opn Run four times a day; 00z & 12Z to 384 hrs, 6z & 18z to 180hrs Run four times a day; 00z & 12Z to 384 hrs, 6z & 18z to 180hrs See: http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/ CMC – Canadian Meteorological Center CMC – Canadian Meteorological Center From 12 to 240 hours; all forecast fields From 12 to 240 hours; all forecast fields Four different physics packages Four different physics packages Sixteen member ensemble; 4 different IC for each Sixteen member ensemble; 4 different IC for each Run once a day at 00Z to 240 hrs Run once a day at 00Z to 240 hrs See: http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html

3. Models GFSCMC GFSCMC

4. Medium Range Guidance NOGAPS – U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System NOGAPS – U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System From 6 to 144 hours, twice each day (00-12Z) From 6 to 144 hours, twice each day (00-12Z) T159L24 /non-ensembled T159L24 /non-ensembled Multiple derived products for ocean use Multiple derived products for ocean use UKMET – United Kingdom Meteorological Office (Forecast Model) UKMET – United Kingdom Meteorological Office (Forecast Model) From 12 to 144 hours, twice each day (00-12Z) From 12 to 144 hours, twice each day (00-12Z) X=60km, Layers=38 X=60km, Layers=38 New Physics Package added in August 2002 New Physics Package added in August 2002 Many derived products for customers Many derived products for customers

5. Models NOGAPS UKMET NOGAPS UKMET

6. Medium Range Guidance ECMWF – European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF – European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Run from 6 to 240 hours at 00Z & 12Z Run from 6 to 240 hours at 00Z & 12Z T159L60; equivalent of 40km grid spacing T159L60; equivalent of 40km grid spacing 50 member ensemble for most fields 50 member ensemble for most fields

7. Models ECMWF ECMWF

8. Model Output Guidance KABE KABE KABE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/11/2004 000 UTC KABE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/11/2004 000 UTC SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18 CLIMO SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18 CLIMO FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192| FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192| MX/MN MX/MN OPRNL 21| 21 41| 29 41| 18 19| 10 16| 5 21| 9 30| 17 35| OPRNL 21| 21 41| 29 41| 18 19| 10 16| 5 21| 9 30| 17 35| MEAN 20| 20 40| 27 38| 13 18| 7 21| 11 21| 12 27| 15 29| MEAN 20| 20 40| 27 38| 13 18| 7 21| 11 21| 12 27| 15 29| STDV 0| 0 1| 2 2| 4 3| 5 6| 4 3| 3 5| 3 4| STDV 0| 0 1| 2 2| 4 3| 5 6| 4 3| 3 5| 3 4| HI 21| 21 41| 30 42| 18 23| 17 33| 20 28| 19 36| 21 35| HI 21| 21 41| 30 42| 18 23| 17 33| 20 28| 19 36| 21 35| LO 20| 20 39| 23 33| 5 12| 1 16| 5 18| 9 21| 10 25| LO 20| 20 39| 23 33| 5 12| 1 16| 5 18| 9 21| 10 25| TMP 18| 26 35| 30 28| 15 13| 10 16| 14 17| 16 22| 18 24| TMP 18| 26 35| 30 28| 15 13| 10 16| 14 17| 16 22| 18 24| DWPT 8| 21 25| 21 11| 2 -3| 3 4| 4 4| 7 11| 11 13| DWPT 8| 21 25| 21 11| 2 -3| 3 4| 4 4| 7 11| 11 13| CLD OV| OV OV| OV OV| PC PC| OV OV| PC PC| OV OV| OV OV| CLD OV| OV OV| OV OV| PC PC| OV OV| PC PC| OV OV| OV OV| P12 P12 OPRNL 6| 67 18| 3 8| 0 3| 38 51| 3 6| 4 16| 15 21| OPRNL 6| 67 18| 3 8| 0 3| 38 51| 3 6| 4 16| 15 21| MEAN 19| 71 20| 9 3| 3 7| 29 29| 9 10| 18 34| 24 23| MEAN 19| 71 20| 9 3| 3 7| 29 29| 9 10| 18 34| 24 23| STDV 6| 8 1| 6 2| 2 3| 20 10| 3 2| 5 9| 6 8| STDV 6| 8 1| 6 2| 2 3| 20 10| 3 2| 5 9| 6 8| HI 32| 86 23| 26 8| 6 13| 56 51| 14 14| 25 55| 38 42| HI 32| 86 23| 26 8| 6 13| 56 51| 14 14| 25 55| 38 42| LO 6| 57 17| 3 0| 0 3| 0 12| 3 6| 4 16| 15 16| LO 6| 57 17| 3 0| 0 3| 0 12| 3 6| 4 16| 15 16| P24 P24 OPRNL | 70| 15| 5| 63| 10| 16| 27| OPRNL | 70| 15| 5| 63| 10| 16| 27| MEAN | 78| 19| 9| 43| 16| 36| 36| MEAN | 78| 19| 9| 43| 16| 36| 36| STDV | 9| 4| 3| 15| 3| 10| 4| STDV | 9| 4| 3| 15| 3| 10| 4| HI | 95| 29| 15| 63| 22| 55| 42| HI | 95| 29| 15| 63| 22| 55| 42| LO | 64| 15| 3| 12| 10| 16| 27| LO | 64| 15| 3| 12| 10| 16| 27|