1. Residential: Appliances Refrigerator/Freezer Decommissioning: Early Retirement and Recycling May 15, 2012 Measure Status Change Recommendation

2. Background SBW Recommended measure be declared “out of compliance” with RTF Guidelines because neither data nor methodology to collect data exist to estimate the fraction of the units normally sold as used or donated that would be replaced when the program eliminates the sale or donation. SBW Recommended measure be declared “out of compliance” with RTF Guidelines because neither data nor methodology to collect data exist to estimate the fraction of the units normally sold as used or donated that would be replaced when the program eliminates the sale or donation. slide 2

3. Staff Recommendation Recommend Measure be classified as “under review” Recommend Measure be classified as “under review” –Strict adherence to Guidelines requires data on the share of refrigerators that are sold as used or donated that are replaced versus recycled in order to place the measure into “active” status –In staff view acquisition of such data is »Too costly »Potentially unreliable »Does not significantly alter savings slide 3

4. Factors Effecting UES Average UEC of existing refrigerators and freezers Average UEC of existing refrigerators and freezers –Including adjustments for “partial year use” and “performance degradation” with age Average age of existing refrigerators and freezers Average age of existing refrigerators and freezers –Used to derive remaining measure life and average UEC of existing units Average UEC of replacement appliance Average UEC of replacement appliance –Share of retired units replaced with new appliance –Share of retired units replaced with used appliance Share of existing appliances normally (i.e., absent a program) retired each year Share of existing appliances normally (i.e., absent a program) retired each year slide 4

5. Establishing Baseline Unit Energy Consumption (UEC) The “baseline” for all RTF savings estimates should be reflect the UEC of appliances absent program intervention (i.e., current practice and/or federal standards whichever is more efficient) The “baseline” for all RTF savings estimates should be reflect the UEC of appliances absent program intervention (i.e., current practice and/or federal standards whichever is more efficient) slide 5

6. Baseline Cases DispositionCases Taken off grid Recycled Kept, not used Donated, not used Sold, not used Left on grid Sold, used Donated, used Kept, used slide 6

7. What We Think We Know Fraction of units which would have been left on the grid without the program. Refrigerator - 57% Freezer - 68% Program evaluation results of what would have happened without the program (Net-to-gross studies) are used to account for normal (end-of-life) replacement or decommissioning of appliances. Summit Blue "Com Ed" 2009 ; ADM CA RARP 2004-05 M&V Final Report, 2008; Innovologie, "An Evaluation of Energy Trust of Oregon's Refrigerator Recycling Program, 2010; Cadmus Group, Residential Retrofit High Impact Measure Evaluation, CA M&V, 2010 Fraction of recycled appliances which are replaced by the program participant 40 -50% Fraction of units which without the program would have been kept and used, which are replaced by the homeowner. Current RTF assumption is 50%. ADM, Cadmus studies address this issue Fraction of recycled appliances which are replaced by the "former" recipient 50%?? RTF assumption: Fraction of units which without the program would have been used by someone else, which are replaced by that person. No data available to support value slide 7

8. Baseline Conditions – What We Need To Know Sold, used Recipient does not Replace Recipient Replaces Donated, used Recipient does not Replace Recipient Replaces slide 8

9. How Important Is It? 57% of recycled refrigerators would have been left on the grid without the program 57% of recycled refrigerators would have been left on the grid without the program Of these some would be Of these some would be –Kept & used (largest share) –Sold & used –Donated or given away & used ETO data indicates that less than 30% of the 57% (i.e., 17%) of recycled refrigerators that would have been left on the grid are sold or donated ETO data indicates that less than 30% of the 57% (i.e., 17%) of recycled refrigerators that would have been left on the grid are sold or donated –What share of these units, if not made available due to the program would be replaced by another refrigerator? slide 9

10. ETO Refrigerator Disposition (What Participants “Said They Would Have Done”) Action Q4 2010 Q1 011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011Share Taken to landfill or community waste center157122121% Taken to recycler1110121719% Had appliance retailer remove1012101116% Sold through ad or garage sale53868% Kept using unit4108410% Sold to appliance retailer31434% Given to Charity84929% Kept but not used24314% Given to family or friend51103% Other62467% N695471 265 slide 10

11. ETO Tracking System Results slide 11

12. PNW Refrigerator Saturation slide 12 Year Average Refrigerators/Dwelling 19791.16 19911.17 2006 (SF New Construction)1.2 2006 (MF New Construction)1.02 RBSA (SF Only, Preliminary)1.3

13. Proposed Motion Approve Residential: Appliances – Refrigerator/Freezer Decommissioning to “under review” status. Approve Residential: Appliances – Refrigerator/Freezer Decommissioning to “under review” status. slide 13