1. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Ecological modelling in the North Sea – data needs and policy perspective David K. Mills Johan van der Molen Cefas, Lowestoft, UK

2. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Policy Context Eutrophication - OSPAR definition : “the enrichment of water by nutrients, especially nitrogen and/or phosphorus, causing an accelerated growth of algae and higher forms of plant life to produce an undesirable disturbance to the balance of organisms present in the water and to the quality of water concerned”Eutrophication - OSPAR definition : “the enrichment of water by nutrients, especially nitrogen and/or phosphorus, causing an accelerated growth of algae and higher forms of plant life to produce an undesirable disturbance to the balance of organisms present in the water and to the quality of water concerned”

3. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Cefas/NIOZ GETM-ERSEM www.nioz.nl/northsea_model

4. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Policy Context OSPAR PARCOM Recommendation 88/2: has a requirement to aim to achieve a substantial reduction (of the order of 50%) in inputs of phosphorus and nitrogen into areas demonstrating eutrophication problems.OSPAR PARCOM Recommendation 88/2: has a requirement to aim to achieve a substantial reduction (of the order of 50%) in inputs of phosphorus and nitrogen into areas demonstrating eutrophication problems.

5. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Policy questions 1.Is the OSPAR nutrient reduction strategy likely to eliminate eutrophication in all Problem Areas? 2.To what extent does the TransBoundary Transport of Nutrients between national maritime areas contribute to eutrophication? 3.What evidence is there to contest the European courts infraction proceedings against the UK under the UWWTD contending that several water bodies (6) are eutrophic (under the UWWTD) Problem Area Non -Problem Area Potential Problem Area Outcome to 2nd Application OSPAR CP

6. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Model application – infraction proceedings Use simple, easy to understand, risk assessment modelUse simple, easy to understand, risk assessment model Draw in UK expertise to prepare for model application, review results, distil advice to DefraDraw in UK expertise to prepare for model application, review results, distil advice to Defra Specific attention give to calculate uncertainty in resultsSpecific attention give to calculate uncertainty in results Iterative application – run model, interpret results, provide advice to Defra and expert panel, obtain feedback, re-run model.Iterative application – run model, interpret results, provide advice to Defra and expert panel, obtain feedback, re-run model. Specific question – does the naturally ‘high’ turbidity in UK coastal waters limit the susceptibility to eutrophicationSpecific question – does the naturally ‘high’ turbidity in UK coastal waters limit the susceptibility to eutrophication Answer - YES many water bodies experience strong light limitation and so susceptibility is reduced.Answer - YES many water bodies experience strong light limitation and so susceptibility is reduced.

7. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 OSPAR - Ecosystem Modelling Norway Utilise established capability in ecosystem modelling in member countries OSPAR created collaborative infrastructure 6 countries 7 models OSPAR Intersessional Correspondance Group on Eutrophication Modelling – (ICG-EMO) www.cefas.co.uk/eutmod www.cefas.co.uk/eutmod Formed 2005 – works to OSPAR ToR’s

8. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 OSPAR: will the strategy to combat eutrophication be effective? Use coupled 3D-hydrodynamic ecosystem modelsUse coupled 3D-hydrodynamic ecosystem models –Realstic riverine nutrient reduction scenario’s –Calculate transport of nutrients across maritime boundaries Multi-model ensemble approach through international working group (ICG-EMO) –3 workshopsMulti-model ensemble approach through international working group (ICG-EMO) –3 workshops Common forcing, calibration and validation data, and model comparison Common forcing, calibration and validation data, and model comparison Outcome scrutinised by OSPAR and formal ICES reviewOutcome scrutinised by OSPAR and formal ICES review Model domains

9. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Quality assurance in model application Riverine nutrient data improvedRiverine nutrient data improved Composite data from North Sea partners to create new data source for model calibration and validationComposite data from North Sea partners to create new data source for model calibration and validation Quantitative approach to assess model performance (cost functions)Quantitative approach to assess model performance (cost functions) Results presented in scientific meetings and published in peer reviewed paperResults presented in scientific meetings and published in peer reviewed paper Lenhart H,. Mills, D.K, Baretta-Bekker, H., van Leeuwen, S., van der Molen, J., Baretta, J.W., Blaas, M., Desmit, X., Kühn, W., Lacroix, G., Los, H.J., Ménesguen, A., Neves, R., Proctor, R., Ruardij, P., Skogen, M.D, Vanhoutte- Brunier, A., Villars, M.T., S. L. Wakelin (2010). Predicting the consequences of nutrient reduction on the eutrophication status of the North Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 81, 148-170

10. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Validation 2002 NL-C3

11. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Nutrient reduction scenario testing ammonium 19852002 Different load reductions for TOxN (NO 2 +NO 3 ), NH4 and PO 4 Different load reductions for each country required to construct realistic nutrient reduction scenarios 50%, 70% reduction of 1985 levels in 2002

12. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Netherlands offshore water body (NL02) results Mean winter DIN at surface Mean winter DIP at surface Mean summer Chl at surface Annual O 2 mini- mum at bottom Indicator response to 50% reduction Indicator response to 70% reduction NL02

13. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Harmonised assessment parameters of the Common Procedure DataCommon Proce- dure 2002 GermanyECOHAM4NetherlandsDelft3D-GEM UK (POL) POLCOMS- ERSEM UK (Cefas) GETM-BFMNorwayNORWECOM 2002Sc1Sc22002Sc1Sc22002Sc1Sc22002Sc1Sc22002 50% red Cat. I Winter DIN -------------- Winter DIP -++0----------- N:P ratio ----------+---- Cat. II Chl mean ----------00--- Chl max ----+++++++++-- Indicator species -/+n/a 000 Cat. III Oxygen min +++-+++++++--++ Organic matter +n/a na Nutrient reduction scenario results Model results presented in OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure reporting format Results for Netherlands Offshore water body Scenario 1 and 2 is 50% and 70% reduction respectively

14. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 UK2: Humber Transboundary nutrient transport

15. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 NL1: Rhine Pelagic + Benthic Transboundary nutrient transport

16. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Figure 4. Contribution to annual average total N from all sources (colours) for Cefas (UK-c) and Deltares (NL) models, and average of the two models, for Netherlands and German national maritime areas (top), and three OSPAR-ICG-EMO areas (bottom). Contribution to annual average total N from all sources National Maritime Areas OSPAR-ICG-EMO areas NetherlandsGermany

17. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Outcomes Model work funded by Defra led by Cefas has resulted in Amendment OSPAR strategy: a 50% reduction in riverine nutrient input (compared to 1985) may not be sufficient to eliminate eutrophication in some water bodies.Amendment OSPAR strategy: a 50% reduction in riverine nutrient input (compared to 1985) may not be sufficient to eliminate eutrophication in some water bodies. Availability of quantitative information on transboundary pollution (nutrient) transport between maritime areas allowing robust eutrophication mitigation strategies to be developedAvailability of quantitative information on transboundary pollution (nutrient) transport between maritime areas allowing robust eutrophication mitigation strategies to be developed Clear science based evidence on the reduced susceptibility of certain UK coastal water bodies to eutrophication that contributed to the UK defence against the European Court infraction proceedings carried out under the UWWTDClear science based evidence on the reduced susceptibility of certain UK coastal water bodies to eutrophication that contributed to the UK defence against the European Court infraction proceedings carried out under the UWWTD

18. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Lessons Learned Data gathering extremely hard work and time consuming Availability of riverine nutrient flux data at European scale problematic especially for recent (3-4 y) data National marine monitoring data invaluable for calibration and validation Collaborative working through ICG-EMO extremely efficient (task sharing, interpretation) International multi-model ensemble approach essential for use of models to advise policy end-user – helps to reduce conflict in international/European policy fora.

19. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Data Needs Good spatial coverage Multiple parameters More years (currently 1988/89 and 2002) Long-term time series (several decades) Near-real time river runoff and nutrient load data

20. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Current and Future Developments EMECO: web-based assessments Western Shelf Observatory: monitoring shelf-ocean exchange 50-year hind cast of North Sea ecosystem dynamics (movie?) Egg and larvae particle tracking: MPA potential interconnectivity

21. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 European Marine ECosystem Observatory Raw data holding Real time Delayed mode QC/ QA Hindcast Forecast QA’d Databases ICES Delayed mode EMECO Datatool Interface EMODNET MERMAN EMECO Assessment database EMECO User Query Data XML, CSV UK/EU sources EMECO Web – enabled Datatools Assessment map Time-series KML–Google Earth GMES - MyOcean Real time Delayed mode Gridded data CPR Delayed mode QA’d Data Information and evidence ‘pipeline’ Calibration Validation

22. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Western Shelf Observatory

23. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 Stratification, Oystergrounds T Strength Duration Onset

24. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 MPA potential interconnectivity

25. EMODNET MODEG Meeting, Brussels September 2010 ?

27. Communication strategy Aim - to ensure full understanding of policy customer needs Gain full understanding of Defra requirements –Regular direct contact between policy customer and Cefas advisory staff –Participation by Cefas staff in relevant international and UK policy for a e.g. OSPAR EUC, UK Eutrophication Committee (?) –Defra and Cefas jointly developing specification for commissioned work Transmit knowledge to Defra –Regular formal and informal contact between policy and advisory staff –Multiple communication methods – meetings, written reports, web-reporting, formal presentations, workshops –2-way communications with prioritised & rapid response to Defra –Complex model results communicated in a meaningful way to policy customers.