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Local Climate & Management: Using stand-level modeling to predict climate change effects on forests WADE TINKHAM Wildfire in Idaho, 2007 © National Geographic.

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Presentation on theme: "Local Climate & Management: Using stand-level modeling to predict climate change effects on forests WADE TINKHAM Wildfire in Idaho, 2007 © National Geographic."— Presentation transcript:

1 Local Climate & Management: Using stand-level modeling to predict climate change effects on forests WADE TINKHAM Wildfire in Idaho, 2007 © National Geographic Prescribed fire treatments, Moscow Mtn., ID, 2010 © Jarod Blades Forwarder loading harvested logs © Unknown

2 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations less Heating more 1900 2000 2100 G LOBAL R EGIONAL M AKING C LIMATE S CIENCE R ELEVANT L OCAL 2

3 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations F RAMING CLIMATE CHANGE IN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Effects of Management Can we maintain historical range of variability? Or do we manage for “resilient systems”? No Climate Change A2 Climate Influence Climate-FVS How it works Adjusts the site index as climate changes Incorporates species climate spaces Assumes seed availability is unlimited 3

4 No Climate Change A2 Scenario A2 – thinning with Rx Fire, followed by Wildfire A2 - thinning with Rx Fire, followed by Harvest A2 – repeated thinning with Rx Fire, followed by Wildfire Elevation Low High Mid Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations F UTURE F OREST S TRUCTURE (2070) 4

5 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations Low Elevation Pine Stand 5 I NFLUENCE OF C LIMATE

6 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations A2 Climate No Management Climate Influence Mean cold month temperature ↑ 3.4° C (-4.8 ° to -1.4°) Frost free period ↑ ~60 days Mean annual precipitation ↑ ~6% Current Climate No Management Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Wildfire in 2060 Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030, Harvest in 2060 Repeated Thinning and Rx Fire in 2010, 2030, 2050 - Wildfire in 2060 L OW E LEVATION P INE S TAND Forest Structure 2070 6

7 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearSpecies No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 Grand fir0.350.380.370.38 Ponderosa Pine0.320.240.190.24 Douglas-fir0.140.190.160.19 2040 Grand fir0.320.460.290.410.42 Ponderosa pine0.300.00 0.01 Douglas-fir0.150.230.170.280.25 2070 Grand fir0.330.490.290.500.44 Ponderosa pine0.270.00 Douglas-fir0.150.180.220.130.34 Changes in Species Importance Transitions to mixed fir stand; ↓ in ponderosa pine * Harvested in 2050 L OW E LEVATION P INE S TAND -S PECIES I MPORTANCE - 7

8 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 CBH11112 Torching Index3027 64 Crowning Index172021 2040 CBH33663 Torching Index301239 26 Crowning Index192134 32 2070 CBH44201516 Torching Index07143395225 Crowning Index2122336538 8 Stand Resilience to Fire ↑ fire resistance L OW E LEVATION P INE S TAND -R ESILIENCY - * Harvested in 2050

9 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 MBF/Acre9.57.4 Tons Carbon/Acre37.934.1 30.1 2040 MBF/Acre31.521.118.1 16.8 Tons Carbon/Acre87.464.754.1 48.8 2070 MBF/Acre52.344.737.29.333.8 Tons Carbon/Acre130106.279.829.571.0 * Harvested in 2050 Site Productivity Similar but slightly diminished productivity L OW E LEVATION P INE S TAND -P RODUCTIVITY - 9

10 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations C LIMATE I NFLUENCE Regardless of management, the stand transitions to a mixed fir stand. Stand departs from historical range of variability but appears healthy. M ANAGEMENT I MPACTS Management can ↑ fire resiliency. Management allows the system to be healthy and productive. 10 Low Elevation Pine Stand

11 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations I NFLUENCE OF C LIMATE Mid Elevation Fir/Larch Stand 11

12 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations A2 Climate No Management Climates Influence Mean cold month temperature ↑ 3.4° C (-6.3 ° to -2.9°) Frost free period ↑ ~40 days Mean annual precipitation ↑ ~6% Current Climate No Management Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Wildfire in 2060 Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Harvest in 2060 Repeated Thinning and Rx Fire in 2010, 2030, 2050 - Wildfire in 2060 M ID E LEVATION F IR /L ARCH S TAND Forest Structure 2070 12

13 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearSpecies No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 Douglas-fir0.830.840.830.84 Larch/white pine0.01 Grand fir0.04 2040 Douglas-fir0.790.800.230.680.64 Larch/white pine0.02 0.000.01 Grand fir0.030.040.030.090.10 2070 Douglas-fir0.830.890.230.580.65 Larch/white pine0.01 0.070.100.11 Grand fir0.02 0.080.120.11 * Harvested in 2060 M ID E LEVATION F IR /L ARCH S TAND -S PECIES I MPORTANCE - Changes in Species Importance ↑ in western larch/western white pine and grand fir through management 13

14 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 CBH3635 Torching Index417405 392 Crowning Index100 2040 CBH11225 Torching Index0025 82 Crowning Index111339 63 2070 CBH21486 Torching Index006146171 Crowning Index11 509642 14 * Harvested in 2060 Stand Resilience to Fire ↑ fire resistance through management M ID E LEVATION F IR /L ARCH S TAND -R ESILIENCY -

15 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 MBF/Acre1.1 Tons Carbon/Acre23.4 20.6 2040 MBF/Acre7.23.03.4 4.6 Tons Carbon/Acre58.449.126.4 22.3 2070 MBF/Acre26.024.66.44.011.7 Tons Carbon/Acre124.9123.039.320.837.1 * Harvested in 2060 Site Productivity Similar productivity 15 M ID E LEVATION F IR /L ARCH S TAND -P RODUCTIVITY -

16 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations C LIMATE I NFLUENCE Stand composition remains similar to the historical range of variability. Western larch and western white pine are recruited into the stand. M ANAGEMENT I MPACTS Through management we see ↑ recruitment of minority species. Management can ↑ fire resiliency. Species recruitment should ↑ the system health. 16 Mid Elevation Fir/Larch Stand

17 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations I NFLUENCE OF C LIMATE High Elevation Subalpine Stand 17

18 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Wildfire in 2060 Thinning and Rx Fire in 2030 Harvest in 2060 Repeated Thinning and Rx Fire in 2010, 2030, 2050 - Wildfire in 2060 Current Climate No Management H IGH E LEVATION S UBALPINE S TAND Forest Structure 2070 A2 Climate No Management Climates Influence Mean cold month temperature ↑ 3.4° C (-8.0 ° to -4.6°) Frost free period ↑ ~30 days Mean annual precipitation ↑ ~7% 18

19 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearSpecies No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 Subalpine fir0.720.70 Larch0.00 Douglas-fir0.030.06 2040 Subalpine fir0.700.580.07 0.00 Larch0.000.020.10 0.11 Douglas-fir0.040.080.17 0.19 2070 Subalpine fir0.710.550.000.040.01 Larch0.000.040.100.090.13 Douglas-fir0.030.120.440.230.29 * Harvest never triggered; failed to reach SDI = 300 H IGH E LEVATION S UBALPINE S TAND -S PECIES I MPORTANCE - Changes in Species Importance ↓ of subalpine fir ↑ of western larch and Douglas-fir 19

20 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 CBH10010 Torching Index10010 Crowning Index10010 2040 CBH114413 Torching Index005571 Crowning Index91065 123 2070 CBH118122 Torching Index00230295 Crowning Index81317632160 * Harvest never triggered; failed to reach SDI = 300 H IGH E LEVATION S UBALPINE S TAND -R ESILIENCY - Stand Resilience to Fire ↑ fire resistance through management 20

21 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations YearMetric No Climate A2 Climate Thinning & Wildfire Thinning & Harvest * Repeated Thinning & Wildfire 2010 MBF/Acre0.0 Tons Carbon/Acre28.5 23.4 2040 MBF/Acre6.66.92.4 1.1 Tons Carbon/Acre56.252.722.6 15.0 2070 MBF/Acre27.212.80.83.31.1 Tons Carbon/Acre108.389.815.629.19.1 * Harvest never triggered; failed to reach SDI = 300 H IGH E LEVATION S UBALPINE S TAND -P RODUCTIVITY - Site Productivity ↓ productivity due to significant changes in species composition 21

22 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations C LIMATE I NFLUENCE ↓ in subalpine fir due to loss in climate space. ↑ in Douglas-fir and western larch transitioning the stand to a mixed fir composition. Departing from historical range of variability but appears healthy. M ANAGEMENT I MPACTS Management shifts the timing and rate of change in species composition to early in the century. Management can ↑ fire resiliency. 22 High Elevation Subalpine Stand

23 Wade Tinkham Local Climate Considerations QUESTIONS? 23

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