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Ian James Diocese of Oxford . Environment Advisor Climate change Revd Professor Ian James Head of School of Mathematics,

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Presentation on theme: "Ian James Diocese of Oxford . Environment Advisor Climate change Revd Professor Ian James Head of School of Mathematics,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Climate change Revd Professor Ian James Head of School of Mathematics, Meteorology & Physics, University of Reading Oxford Diocesan environment advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com

2 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Plan of talk The problem Is climate change real? Some complications The future

3 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com The problem - why climate change is a concern

4 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Atmospheric carbon dioxide

5 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com A little goes a long way!

6 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Two views of Earth Visible light Infra-red view

7 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com The “greenhouse” effect Carbon dioxide blankets Earth’s surface. Sunlight gets in. Infra-red absorbed and re- emitted. Other greenhouse agents – water vapour, clouds.

8 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Carbon dioxide & ice ages

9 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com The carbon cycle Fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) are made of carbon and hydrogen. When burnt, they produce energy, water and carbon dioxide. HumanNatural

10 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com What activities generate carbon dioxide? All sources are comparable No easy target! Reduction across the board

11 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Is climate change happening? Some examples

12 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years SPM 1b

13 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Summer 2003 Deviation from 1961-1990 mean Based on ECMWF and ERA-40 Color: temperature anomaly Contours: normalized by standard deviation (Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336) ºC Temperature Anomaly June-August 2003

14 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Hurricanes More intense More extremes Form over hottest sea

15 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Arctic sea ice September 1979 September 2005

16 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Glaciers in retreat Pasterze glacier, Austria, 1875 Same view, 2004

17 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Sea-level transgression scenarios for Bangladesh Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

18 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Some complications….

19 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Feedbacks…… A positive feedback loop…

20 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Examples of climate feedbacks Warm atmosphere becomes moister Melting ice & snow makes surface darker Melting tundra releases methane Moist atmosphere becomes cloudier

21 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Melting permafrost Vast areas of the high northern latitudes have permanently frozen soils – “tundra”. These are thawing out as warming accelerates Thawing releases methane Methane is an even more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide

22 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com The “tipping point” The point at which carbon dioxide levels are so high enough that feedbacks take over, and changes become irreversible. Are we approaching a “tipping point”?

23 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com The future?

24 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels

25 Ian James Diocese of Oxford E-mail. Environment Advisor Dr.I.N.James@Btinternet.com Only connect! Interdependence of natural world We are part of natural world! Need to live sustainably within the entire world community

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