1. Chapter 18 Determining Sales Forecasts

2. Main Ideas  Importance of Forecasting Sales  Sales History  Maintaining Sales Histories  Sales Variances  Predicting Future Sales

3. Importance of Forecasting Sales  “How many guests will I serve today?" - "This week?" - "This year?"  Guests will provide the revenue from which the operator will pay basic operating expenses

4. Importance of Forecasting Sales  Forecasts of future sales are normally based on your sales history.  A sales forecast predicts the number of guests you will serve and the revenues they will generate in a given future time period.

5.  Determine your actual sales for a current time period by using a point of sales (POS) system.  Distinction between sales (revenue) and sales volume (covers) Importance of Forecasting Sales

6.  Sales may be a blend of cash and non- cash.  With accurate sales records, a sales history can be developed. Importance of Forecasting Sales

7.  Sales history is the systematic recording of all sales achieved during a pre-determined time period. Sales histories can be created to record revenue, guests served, or both.  Sales to date is the cumulative total of sales reported in the unit. Sales History

8.  An average or mean is defined as the value arrived at by adding the quantities in a series and dividing the sum of the quantities by the number of items in the series.  Fixed average is an average in which you determine a specific time period.  Rolling average is the average amount of sales or volume over a changing time period. Sales History

9.  Guest count is the term used in the hospitality industry to indicate the number of people you have served.  For many other foodservice operations, sales are recorded in terms of sales revenue generated. Sales History

10.  Record both revenue and guest counts  Compute average sales per guest, a term also known as check average Total Sales Number of Guests Served = Average Sales per Guest Sales History

11.  POS systems give you  the amount of revenue you have generated in a selected time period  the number of guests you have served  the average sales per guest Sales History

12.  A weighted average is an average that weights the number of guests with how much they spend in a given time period.  The weighted average sales per guest for 2 days is as follows: Sales History Day 1 Sales + Day 2 Sales Day 1 Guests + Day 2 Guests

13.  Sales history may consist of :  revenue, number of guests served, and average sales per guest  the number of a particular menu item served, the number of guests served in a specific meal or time period, or the method of meal delivery (for example, drive-through vs. counter sales).  In most cases, your sales histories should be kept for a period of at least two years. Maintaining Sales Histories

14.  Sales variances are changes from previously experienced sales levels  The variance is determined by subtracting sales last year from sales this year Sales This Year – Sales Last Year = Variance Sales Variances

15.  Percentage variance indicates the percentage change in sales from one time period to the next. Sales Variances Sales This Year – Sales Last Year Sales Last Year = Percentage Variance or Variance Sales Last Year= Percentage Variance or Sales This Year Sales Last Year – 1 = Percentage Variance

16.  Use sales histories to predict, or forecast, future revenues, guest counts, or average sales per guest levels. Predicting Future Sales

17.  Revenue forecast is calculated using the following formula: Predicting Future Sales Sales Last Year + (Sales Last Year × % Increase Estimate) = Revenue Forecast or Sales Last Year × (1 + % Increase Estimate) = Revenue Forecast

18.  Using the same techniques employed in estimating increases in sales, you can estimate increases or decreases in the number of guests served. Predicting Future Sales

19.  The guest count forecast is determined as follows: Predicting Future Sales Guest Count Last Year + (Guest Count Last Year × % Increase Estimate) = Guest Count Forecast Or Guests Count Last Year × (1.00 + % Increase Estimate) = Guest Count Forecast

20.  Average sales per guest (check average) is simply the amount of money an average guest spends during a visit.  Using data taken from the sales history, the following formula is employed: Predicting Future Sales Last Year's Average Sales per Guest + Estimated Increase in Sales per Guest = Sales per Guest Forecast

21.  An average sales per guest forecast can also be obtained by dividing the revenue forecast by the guest count forecast. Predicting Future Sales Revenue Forecast Guest Count Forecast = Average Sales per Guest Forecast

22.  Sales histories are not sufficient, used alone, to accurately predict future sales.  You also must consider potential price changes, new competitors, facility renovations, and improved selling programs, and other factors. Predicting Future Sales

23. Summary  Importance of Forecasting Sales  Sales History  Maintaining Sales Histories  Sales Variances  Predicting Future Sales