1. The Polling Process
AP Government

2. The Polling Process Scientific polling is extremely difficult
5 basic steps
1. define your target audience
12th grade girls
steel workers
all registered voters in VA
2. construct a sample
you can’t poll all registered voters in VA, so you must figure out how to get a proportional sample that will get you accurate data
Will never have a perfect sample; margin is usually +_ 3

3. The Polling Process 5 basic steps cont… 3. prepare valid questions
Yes or No?
The best questions measure INTENSITY, STABILITY, & RELEVANCE
To what extent? (strongly agree, agree, don’t know, disagree, etc.)
Try not to propose “loaded,” emotionally charged, or biased words
Keep vocabulary simple, and questions short
4. select and control how the poll will be taken
Surveys (phone or mail)
Focus group
Pollster’s dress, tone, and attitude could affect answers
Often, people lie or bend the truth… don’t want to sound uninformed (depends on wording)

4. The Polling Process 5 basic steps cont…
5. analyze and report findings to the government
For data to be of any value, it must be properly analyzed and broken down into data that can be easily interpreted
Pollsters use technology to draw conclusions based on their findings

5. Polling
More politicians, including the president, rely on polling data today than ever before
Reagan and Clinton used public opinion more than any had before them

6. Polling Polling Data & Presidential Decision-Making Examples
Reagan did not intervene in Nicaragua when he faced a challenge from leftist insurgents because it did not poll well among American citizens (criticized by the media for relying on public opinion for foreign policy).
Public opinion polls convinced George H. W. Bush (who feared another Vietnam) to drive Iraqi troops out of Kuwait.

7. Polling Polling Data & Presidential Decision-Making Examples
Congress did not impeach President Clinton after public opinion polls showed that 71 percent of people were outraged at how the media was handling the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
George W. Bush wanted to privatize social security to those who wanted it in (aka young people could start their own private account for their social security contributions that the government could not touch), but when 46 percent of people in a poll disagreed with this, he did not do it.

8. Polling
These cases should not be viewed as a celebration of the power of public opinion or the importance of polls.
Rather, they illustrate the extent to which public views have played a central role in the course of national affairs since the 1980s.
What do you think? Is public opinion meaningful?

9. Polling Project