1. Food Systems in the Coastal Zone: A LOICZ Perspective L. Talaue-McManus Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science University of Miami

2. LOICZ Structure Scientific Steering Committee International Project Office External forcing or boundary conditions Coastal biogeomorphology Carbon fluxes & trace gas emmissions Economic & social impacts of global change National Programs Regional/ Global Projects International Network of 3000+ Scientists

3. <1 1-10 10-25 25-50 50-100 100-200 200-400 >400 Sediment Load (MT/yr) Sediment Load at River Mouth (MT/yr) Syvitski and Morehead, 1999 (Natural)

4. Nile

5. Nutrient Budget Modeling Predictive relationships Typology To discern Regional & Global patterns 22002 222 200 sites with nutrient budgets Using global Databases to Scale up Clustering & Visualization tools Nutrient fluxes

6. The LOICZ Typology Environmental Database World gridded into 259,200 half- degree cells; 219 variables, of which 92 are “selected” – oceanic, atmospheric, geomorphic, terrestrial, ‘human dimension,’ special applications – all public domain, with global or near global coverage. Developmental Partner – Biogeography of the Hexacorallia (www.kgs.ukans.edu/Hexacoral)www.kgs.ukans.edu/Hexacoral Relevant features: Selectable geographic regions; Internet links to Web-LOICZView clustering, Ocean Biogeographic Information System; Extensive and growing inventory of data characterization/manipulation tools;

7. Predictive relationships (Smith et al., 2003) Log (mol DIP km -2 yr -1 ) = 2.72 + 0.36 X log (persons km -2 ) + 0.78 X log (runoff in m 3 yr -1 ) DIP load, number of persons, and runoff scaled to catchment basin area N=168; r 2 = 0.58

8. Nutrients: Human-generated and Loads Parameter (mmol m -2 yr -1 ) RRDCNP=1000:13:1 Bandon Bay CNP = 324:27:1 Lingayen Gulf CNP = 106:16:1 Merbok Estuary CNP = 1400:9:1 DIP generation  Agriculture  Household 52078%NA1021%14%9045%53%18031%NA DIP load 110256520 DIN generation  Agriculture  Household 1,94076%NA6021%15%80078%20%2,48028%NA DIN load 4051140425670

9. Nutrient yield and load to the world ocean (Estimates for DIP)  Most of the world coastline still has low yield top blue (68% of coastal cells).  High yield is locally restricted top red, yellow (1, 2% of coastal cells).  Most of the load comes from regions with low to intermediate yield bottom red, yellow and white (38, 34, 19% of load); top green, white, and blue (20, 9, 68% of coastline).  Load will continue to grow with population and land use change. yield load

10. LOICZ II: Main Challenge Interacting changes in the global CZ are 3-fold: Global Global Regional (transboundary & supra-national) Regional (transboundary & supra-national) Catchment level Catchment level “Understanding & assisting in the management of these changes, to ensure the continuity of goods and services provided by the CZ, IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF A FUTURE LOICZ”.

12. 1. River basin deliveries to CZ  Damming  Catchment modelling of nutrients and pollutants  Local governance & resource management  Land use and cover change & critical thresholds of mass transport  Sediment continuum

13. 2. Coastal development & change  Coastal urbanization  Modification of coastal habitats  Changing deltaic coasts  Changing sea use (e.g. large-scale engineering, aquaculture, supplemental energy sources)

14. 3. Fate & transformation of materials in coastal & shelf waters  Interaction between changing coastal ecosystems and biogeochemical functions  Biogeochemical processes and the small food web  Trace and greenhouse gasses in the CZ  Coastal zones as CO 2 sink or source  Groundwater seepage

15. 4. Vulnerability of coastal systems & human safety  Hard vs. soft coastal defences  Natural hazards and quality of life  Climate forcing and harvestable production  Future of coral reefs  Sea level rise: impacts & adaptation

16. < of land surface Wilson et al in prep. Major issues on food systems in the coastal zone 1. Agriculture and sewageCoastal eutrophication 2. Coastal habitat modificationCompromised ecological functions 3. OverharvestReduced resource base 4. Changing climateChanging resilience of coastal systems

17. LOICZ Wish List  Contribute its strengths  Mobilize its network of scientists  Realize knowledge products  Assist local and regional scientific networks to integrate global environmental change in their research agenda for the coastal zone