1. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Population censuses and sample surveys as a source of fertility statistics

2. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Methods used for fertility statistics Reverse survival The own-child Birth history reconstruction Children ever born Recent births Birth histories Fertility statistics Fertility statistics

3. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Reverse survival – the rational  Number of births in the population during the year prior to the census = population under 1 year of age in the census * reverse survival factor  Reverse survival – adjustment for mortality (persons died before the census was taken)  If no complete civil registration data, reverse survival can be used to estimate the following for 15 years prior to census (some surveys): Number of births Crude birth rates General fertility rates  Assumption: No migration! (or can be neglected)

4. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Reverse survival - Information needed  Age – by single years Better if collected as date of birth  Level of mortality, can be obtained from Children ever-born and surviving (for estimated life tables)  Total number of persons in a year (for crude birth rate)  Number of reproductive age women (general fertility rate)

5. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Reverse survival - Estimation  Total number of births x years before the census = population x year of age in the census * reverse survival factor

6. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Reverse survival - tabulation  Population by single years of age

7. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Reverse survival - quality  The quality of reverse survival estimates of births and birth rates depends on the accuracy of Age distribution (most important) Reverse survival factors Extend of migration (may be important to small areas)  Assessment of quality: compare estimates from different sources at different times

8. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 The own-children method the rational  Match the children reverse-survived with their mother  disaggregate reverse-survived births by age and/or other characteristics of mother  Any person under age 15  child  Note: biological children only

9. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 The own-children method - information needed  Age, by single years  Is mother of the child alive and living in the same household?  If yes, which person is the mother? Line number of the mother (for this child) OR Relation to head of household (applies for nuclear households or similar types)

10. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 The own-children method - tabulation Age of mother Age of child 01…1314 15 16 … 63 64 Non-own children

11. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 The own-children method - estimation  Age specific birth rate 10-15 years preceding a census or survey

12. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 The own-children method - quality  The quality of own-children estimates of age-specific fertility rates depends on the accuracy of The quality of matching! Age distribution (more important if age exaggeration) Reverse survival factors Extend of migration (may be important to small areas)

13. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Birth history reconstruction – the rational  Own-children methods: If number of own-children = number of children ever-born  birth history If number of own-children < number of children ever-born  some children live elsewhere or died  Birth history reconstruction: Imputes years of births for surviving children living elsewhere and deceased children

14. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Birth history reconstruction - information needed  Age, by single years  Identify mother (line number or relation to the household head)  Number of children ever born  Number of surviving children

15. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Birth history reconstruction - Tabulation (age-parity) Year of birth of first child (years prior to census) Age of women at end of year of first birth 5554…21 0 1 … **…**10 *…**11 ……… **63 *64

16. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Birth history reconstruction - Tabulation (parity-duration) Year of second child (years prior to census) Completed years in parity 1 at end of year of second birth 2120…21 **…**0 *…**1 ……… **19 *20

17. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Birth history reconstruction -estimation  Age-parity-specific birth rates (all women at certain age)  Birth rates specific for parity and duration in parity

18. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Birth history reconstruction - quality  Additional quality concerns: Imputation of dates of birth for non-own and deceased children  If level of mortality is low and most children under age 15 lives in the same household as their mother, the influence of imputation is minimum.

19. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Children ever born – some background  Widely used for over 50 years (although still a lot of problems)  Important for countries do not have complete birth registration  Also important for countries with complete birth registration Provide fertility measures on birth order and parity of women Study fertility by socio-economic characteristics

20. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Children ever born - information needed  How many children has [this woman] had in her lifetime? incl. all live births Could be elaborated into a number of questions  Asked to all women  Sex of the child  sex ratio at birth

21. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Children ever born - tabulation Age of women Number of children ever born CEB not stated Total women Total children born 01…1415+ 10-14 15-19 … 80-84 85+ NS Total

22. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Children ever born - tabulation  A few important issues: Do not group the numbers of children, except the last open category Distinguish children ever born not stated from no children

23. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Children ever born - estimation  Parity distribution  Parity progression ratios  Average number of children ever born  Completed fertility  Total fertility rates  Age-specific birth rates

24. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Children ever born - quality  Underreporting of children ever born More serious for older women Can use certain adjustment to fix  Failure to record childless Proportion of childless women too low and average number of children born too high. Still a serious problem in many countries  Selection error Use women enumerated in census/survey to represent past experience – not a big problem though

25. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Recent births - information needed 1.Did [this woman] have any live birth during the past 12 months (if multiple, indicate number)? OR 2.What was the year and month of your most recent birth OR 3.Have there been any live births in this household during the last 12 months?

26. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Recent births - tabulations Age of womenNumber of births in the last 12 months Question 1 and 3: Question 2: Age of women# of women having birth in Jan 05Feb 05…Dec 05

27. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Recent births - estimation  The questions are subject to under- reporting of births – certain adjustment is needed  Age of women during the census to be adjusted to age at giving birth

28. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Recent births - quality  Reporting errors: Poor performance of fieldworkers “reference period error”: uncertain of the date of birth vs the reference period Reluctant to report  Selection errors: Excluded women had a birth recently but died before the census Excluded household had a birth recently but dissolved before the census Not significant in most cases, however could become an issue when many deaths occurred in a short period (HIV/AIDS)

29. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Birth histories – some background  An important source on infant and child mortality  Include many questions, limited to 5000 or 10000 women  WFS or DHS  Age-specific birth rates or mortality rates

30. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Birth histories – information needed  Birth history of a woman: All children she has had Living or deceased? Characteristics of the children:  Sex  Date of birth  Type of birth (single, twin etc)

31. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Birth histories – quality  Reporting errors

32. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Conclusion  Methods are available when complete civil registration system does not exist. Civil registration, however, is still the best source.  Can also be used to evaluate the quality of civil registration data  Quality concerns

33. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 References: Handbook on the Collection of Fertility and Mortality Data, United Nations (2003) Manual X Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation, United Nations (1983)

34. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Example – Romania Age 2002 civil registration2001 census P/F Births female populationF Children ever born Total femaleP 15-19285037958680.067982984264818.72306.75 20-24775189432080.388527313398842.516.67 25-29667939056410.798297588025011.031.31 30-34360639630551.0695573013674070.700.66 35-3983956137811.1958694511027600.530.45 40-4423277687251.2272337815227110.480.39 45-491398203431.2380943017611090.460.37 Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook

35. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Example - Bahrain Age 2002 civil registration2001 census P/F Births Female PopulationF Children Ever born Total femaleP 15-19349254330.0149610370.4847.51 20-242645273730.10839292590.913.65 25-294147274360.1526150169251.551.69 30-343413284530.1247860203882.351.45 35-392299263420.0967362210793.201.49 40-44655204740.0367835175573.861.58 45-4951131810.0049733116454.271.70 Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook

36. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Example - Kazakhstan Age 1999 civil registration1999 census P/F Births Female populationF Children ever born Total femaleP 15-19223347051100.04337466775650.051.14 20-24809916536220.463791866249330.611.31 25-29568765603761.057995055841821.371.31 30-34322765295381.4611203275587842.001.38 35-39155426060781.6615016166158352.441.47 40-4431205427401.7414795045427192.731.57 45-492054552551.7513439934555312.951.69 Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook

37. 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing Censuses Workshop on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics in the UNESCWA Region Cairo, Egypt, 3 - 6 December 2007 Data availability - children ever born* CountryYear of data Egypt1986 Bahrain1991 and 2001 Iraq1987 and 1997 Palestine1997 Qatar1986 Yemen1994 Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook