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OBOR and the Revival of Civilizations

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Presentation on theme: "OBOR and the Revival of Civilizations"— Presentation transcript:

1 OBOR and the Revival of Civilizations
Prof. Dr. WANG Yiwei(王义桅) Director of Institute of International Affairs Renmin University of China Senior Fellow of RDCY

2

3 EN

4 Content Why Silk Road? Why China? Why Now? Why Good for the World?

5 How It was Like

6 And Full of Problems

7 16世纪欧洲现代化崛起 古丝绸之路消逝 Transport and logistic routes for trading and cultural exchanges between East and West.

8

9 Lost, but Never Forgotten
UNESCO, UNDP, Japan, US, Iran, Russia, Khazakstan, ROK… Many tried to re-establish the concept, with different contents and for different ends In the past 30 Years

10 Planned to Be This

11 But Ever So Great is OBOR Late 2013

12 But What IS IT? Interconnectivity:
of transportation in the air, on land and sea, oil and gas pipelines, and telecommunications For 65 countries and regions A giant economy of 4.4 billion on a planet of some 7 billion

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14 Second Eurasian Land Bridge
Traditional Industry Belt Yangtze River One Road One Belt

15 Russia, Central Asia, Europe Russia Mongolia
Traditional Industry Belt Second Eurasian Land Bridge ROK DPRK Japan One Belt Yangtze River Asia-Pacific One Road South Asia, Indochina ASEAN

16 中国东北振兴战略与俄罗斯东西伯利亚和远东开发战略对接
国际合作复兴丝绸之路,建设欧亚大市场 北方海航线 中国东北振兴战略与俄罗斯东西伯利亚和远东开发战略对接 跨欧亚发展带 南北交通走廊 美国新丝绸之路 TRACECA 中巴经济走廊 中缅印孟经济走廊 区域全面合作关系RCEP

17 Provinces, Municipalities, and Autonomous Regions in the Belt
Role Hub Xinjiang (Autonomous Region) Core of the Belt Urumqi, Kashgar Gansu (Province) Gold area of the Belt Lanzhou, Baiyin, Jiuquan Ningxia Underpinning Yunnan Position of Strength, Hub of the Channels Guangxi Portal to SE Asia Shaanxi Xi' an Qinghai Major theater for westward opening Xining, Haidong, Golmud Sichuan Transportation Nexus and Economic Hinterland Chongqing (Special Municipality) Transportation centre in upper Yangtze River, thus an inland highlight

18 Provinces, Municipalities, and Autonomous Regions on the Road
Role Hub Fujian Core Area Fuzhou, Xiamen, Quanzhou, Pingtan Guangdong Bridgehead Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Huizhou Jiangsu Intersection of the Road Xuzhou, Lianyungang Zhejiang Pioneer of economic and trade cooperation, Pilot of Internet Silk Road, Nexus for trade and logistics Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou Hainan Gateway and strategic support of the Road Haikou, Sanya

19 Coverage Region Country/Region Numbers Central Asia
Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, 7 South East Asia Indonesia, Cambodia, East Timor, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar 11 South Asia Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka 8 Central and East Europe Poland, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia 16 West Asia and North Africa Iran, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Yemen Republic CIS and others Belorussia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia 6

20 And What We Do? One Concept: OBOR, as One is where all Universe Starts
Two Underpinning: Belt and Road Three Principles: Shared interest+Shared Responsibility=Shared Destiny Four Keys: Connectivity in capacity, strategy, industry, for Third-Party Markets. Five Sectors: Policy, Facilities, Trade, Financing, People-to-people Six Ways: Six Economic Corridors of New Eurasian Land Bridge, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, China-Indochina, China-Pakistan, and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar

21 What Connectivity is Interconnectivity?
policy coordination Infrastructure unimpeded trade financial integration people-to-people bonds

22 New Eurasian Continental Bridge
Chinese Cities Lianyungang, Qingdao, Rizhao, Xuzhou, Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Xi`an, Lanzhou, Urumqi Resources Abroad Caspian Basin South Turgai Oil and Gas Field Turgai Depression Iron Mine, Chu-Sarisu River Uranium Mine Dev-Zones in China  Khorgos Dev-Zone,Astana Dev-Zone in Kazakhstan Jiangsu and Shandong Coast to Kazakhstan Russia Belorussia Mediterranean

23 China-Russia-Mongolia Economic Corridor
Chinese Cities Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin Resources Abroad West Siberian Oil and Gas Fields, Mongolian Gobi Coal and Copper Mine, Choibalsan Uranium-Lead-Zinc Mine, Metallogenic Zones in Russian Far-East Dev-Zones In China Manzhouli, Erenhot, Suifenhe(Dongning), Yanji(Changbai) Key Pilot Dev-Zone China-Russia-Mongolia Economic Corridor From Tianjin and Dalian to the Baltic through Erenhot, Manzhouli Suifenhe Mongolia, Russia

24 China-Central Asia- West Asia
Chinese Cities Xining, Yinchuan, Kashgar, Urumqi Resources Abroad Oil and Gas in Karakum, Fergana, Caspian Sea, North Ustyurt, Azadegan, Yadavaran, Pars, Metal Ore in Tianshan and Chu-Iliyskiy, Rich Sylvate in East Turkmenistan Dev-Zones in China Kashgar, Erenhot, Suifenhe(Dongning), Yanji(Changbai) Key Pilot Dev-Zone, Dev- Zones Abroad Almaty IT Tech Zone,Free Economic Zone in  Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Special Zones in Uzbekistan, Pengsheng Industrial Park China-Central Asia- West Asia Urumqi Kazakhstan Kyrzhyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Iran, Turkey Persian Gulf Mediterranean Arabian Peninsula

25 China-Indochina Kunming and Nanning Singapore Laos, Vietnam
Chinese Cities Kunming, Nanning, Guiyang, Chongqing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen Resources Abroad Oil and Gas in Malay basin, Thailand, Non-Ferrous Metal in Northern Vietnam Fault Block and Alumina Belt in Cambodia Dev-Zones in China Key Dev-and-Opening Zones in Dongxing/Piangxiang of Guangxi and Mengla of Yunnan, Sino-Singapore Guangzhou Knowledge City, China-Malaysia Qinzhou Industrial Park Dev- Zones Abroad Dev-Zone in Laos, Sino-Malaysia Kuantan Industrial Park, Indonesia-China Industrial Park, Jurong Industrial Park Kunming and Nanning to Singapore via Laos, Vietnam Cambodia, Thailand Malaysia

26 China-Pakistan Kashgar Gwadar Port Khunjerab Pass and Islamabad
Chinese Cities Xining, Yinchuan, Urumqi, Kashgar Dev-Zones in Pakistan Export Processing Zones in: Karachi(Sindh), Risalpur Sialkot(Punjab) Gujranwala(Punjab) Special Economic Zone in: Khairpur(Sindh) China-Pakistan Kashgar To Gwadar Port Through Khunjerab Pass and Islamabad

27 Maritime Silk Road Linking Meeting Meshing Fusing Completing
Route I Ports on China Coast(Fujian) to South China Sea, Malacca, Indian Ocean, to Europe Route II Ports on China Coast to South China Sea, Indonesia, and South Pacific Route III Arctic Ocean in Long Run Strategic Stations Sihanoukville Jakarta Bitung Singapore Kyaukpyu Gwadar Kuantan Chittagong Salalah Sonadia Hambantota Colombo Aden Said Maritime Silk Road Linking Meeting Meshing Fusing Completing Supporting

28 Why China?

29 Ancient Silk Road

30 Extending to South Pacific

31 China Strength IN OBOR I. China Model
2. Four Trillion USD foreign reverse 3. Tech 4. Culture

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33 The Money, Where from? Loans from World Bank, Asian Development Bank and alike Silk Road Fund.Ltd,40 billion USD and Growing since 2014 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank A Public-Private Partnership like European Investment Bank

34 What Risks? Economic Political Security Legal Moral

35 Economic Short Term: Conflicting Monetary Policies across the World
Long Term: Shifting Global Economic Structure Now: Investment, Financing, Taxtation Sovereign Debt, Local Debt, Weak Services, Lack of Awareness Will it degenerate into a simple spending spree by China, as some kind of global Ministry o Finance

36 Political Internal Geopolitical
What will current Global System become? Reactions?

37 Security US and NATO confronting a reviving Russia
Syria, Iran, Rise of ISIS and general terrorism, and possible manipulation of terrorism by states Maritime Disputes Color Revolutions

38 Legal Future of WTO facing new arrangements
Insufficient Legal Frame along OBOR Obstacles in Existing Legal Systems: Laws too open for interpreation Projects and Protest

39 Moral State Level: Unfamiliar China---How Much do People Know but Pandas? Business Level: Bad Behavior---modernization in a world of Postmodern ethics Interpersonal: There are still bad people around

40 Have Risks, Will Prevent
By inclusiveness: Mesh with Existing Cooperation Against No One By Involvement: of Local Stakeholders and People By Sharing: Localization of Whole Industrial Chain and Services, bringing benefits where we are

41 A Shared Trinity Common Interest:
in Politics, Economy, Culture through working together Common Responsibility: from shared concerns and combined efforts for OBOR governance Common Destiny: Overcome challenges together, over the Risks is common Prosperity

42 BTW, About those “China Something”…
China Model? China Experience? China Dream?

43 China Model:What Is It? Why Share?
Infrastracture+Education Helps the 900 million people without electrical power reach UN Millennium Development Goals and Move On The Master said, "Now the man of perfect virtue, wishing to be established himself, seeks also to establish others; wishing to be enlarged himself, he seeks also to enlarge others. To be able to judge of others by what is nigh in ourselves - this may be called the art of virtue."

44 China Experience Gradual Reform and Opening Up
intergration of Market in China and Beyond Interconnectivity

45 China Dream Peace, Peace, Peace
Inclusiveness, Inclusiveness, Inclusiveness Prosperity. Prosperity, Prosperity Like we in China said, important things should be said Thrice

46 It`s Just… Why NOW?

47 time to bring maximum prosperity from not only China, but the World

48 For the world

49 Growing Importance of Silk Road Regions in Global Economy

50 Infrastructure Investment Demand in coming Years Estimated: 6
Infrastructure Investment Demand in coming Years Estimated: billion USD 2015 to billion USD 2015 to 2025

51 China`s trade with OBOR topped 1 trillion USD in 2013, after a decade of 19% average growth, and is still growing fast.

52 And the OBOR mission…

53 Seeking Way for Global Prosperity in Post-Crisis Era
As the new engine of global economic growth, China brings its advantages in productivity, technology, funding, experience, and development into package and offer. The Belt and Road Initiative is the result of this and China’s new phase of all-around opening-up.

54 Global Rebalance Traditional globalization starts from the sea. Coastal regions and maritime states develop first, while inland countries fall behind, forming a massive wealth gap. From Partial globalization to Inclusive globalization

55 With Global Shipping Like This

56 And Nocturnal World This

57 We Need a New Model for Regional Cooperation for the 21st Century
Economic Belt is an innovation in regional cooperation. A new Eurasian Land Bridge China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia and China-Indochina Peninsula economic corridors work as growth nexus to bring good to surrounding areas.

58 Why Good for the World? Case on Europe

59 Europe's Second Chance to Shape the World
Now Europe could once again be the centre of this world with all Eurasian continent if she want. This geopolitical World Island could reshape Global Geopolitics and the entire Globalization with its own Integration.

60   China's “One Belt One Road” offers eight great opportunities for Europe as follows:
Firstly, One Belt and One Road (OBOR) can connect with Juncker-Plan and stimulate European economic growth through mutual-connectivity and extending European single market to Eurasian Big Market.

61 Secondly, it is an opportunity to build a greater Eurasian market and to revive European civilization; Thirdly, it is an opportunity for Europe’s regional integration: "Eastern partnership" and "Mediterranean partnership“? Fourthly, the opportunity to push forward EU-China comprehensive strategic partnership.

62 Fifthly, it is an opportunity for EU-Russian reconciliation
Sixthly, it is an opportunity for the EU to access to Asia-Pacific Affairs. Seventhly, it is an opportunity for the EU to enhance its global influence. Eighthly, it is an opportunity to balance the development of the trans-Atlantic relationship.

63 According to Bloomberg analysis, OBOR will bring 3 billion middle class in 2050.
In the coming decade, OBOR will create 2.5 trillion USD trade along the 65 countries including European countries under 16+1 framework.

64 One Belt One Road Initiate Promotes 16+1 Cooperation
Chin-Europe “partnership of peace, partnership of growth, partnership of reform, and partnership of civilization”, maritime cooperation is the new grip.

65 building a new Asia-Europe maritime-land combined transport passage, relying on Belgrade-Budapest Railway and Greece’s Piraeus Port.

66 Case Study: five ways for the UK to join OBOR
First, strategies Synergy. The UK Northern England Revitalization Plan with the initiative. Second, connectivity in five aspects. RMB Third, development of third-party markets. Fourth, international capacity cooperation. Fifth, joint development of the Maritime Silk Road.

67 Conclusion E=MC² E: Europe M: Mutual Connectivity
C²: China multiplies Eurasian Continent

68 For More: VISION AND ACTIONS ON JOINTLY BUILDING SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT AND 21ST- CENTURY MARITIME SILK ROAD March 28, 2015 251/t shtml

69 敬请期待 王义桅:《世界是通的:一带一路的逻辑》, 商务印书馆,2016年1月版。

70 China Provides! 殖民先鋒:葡萄牙 無敵艦隊:西班牙 海洋霸權:荷蘭 日不落國:英國 歐陸強權:法國 鐵血帝國:德國
巨人伊凡:俄羅斯 太陽東昇:日本 世界警察:美國 China Provides!


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