1. What’s NZ’s share? Sharing in our Global Carbon Budget Dr Scott Metcalfe FNZCPHM OraTaiao: The NZ Climate & Health Council www.orataiao.org.nz

2. NZ’s appropriate emissions share? Outline: Context: the Global Carbon budget Global spread of GHG emissions & impacts Various ways to share the global effort What these mean for NZ’s 2030 targets Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 20152

4. Health warnings… prefer >2/3 odds of breaching 2 o C ultimately aiming for rise of only 1.5 o C production emissions are only one part of total climate action the limitations of gross domestic product (GDP) as a metric Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 20154

5. 1. Context – the Global Carbon Budget Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 20155

6. Global Abatement pathways Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 20156

7. The world needs to reduce emissions quickly, to keep within the 1010Gt carbon budget Source: Paul Young/Generation Zero Source: MfE NZ 2015 Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 20157

8. To remain within budget, the later we start, the greater the effort needed Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 20158

9. 2. Global spread of emissions & impacts Global epidemiology: uneven emissions, health impacts, opportunities Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 20159

10. Where people live and their income: Population GDP Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201510

11. Historic fossil CO2 emissions Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201511

12. Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201512

13. Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201513

14. Patterns vary +++ 14Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

15. per capita gross GHG emissions/budgets Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201515

16. Deforestation – it’s not just Brazil… Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201516

17. per capita cumulative fossil CO2 1950-2013 cf GDP in 2013 (log scales) Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201517

18. Poverty relates to poor health (GDP v DALYL, log scale) 18Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

19. Historic emissions correlate with both current per capita GDP and disease burden 19Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

20. The climate gap: those who have emitted most vs. those impacted first and worst cumulative fossil CO2 emissions 1950-2013 selected excess climate change deaths in 2030 (using Hales et al WHO 2014) maps by Mark Metcalfe

21. Historic emissions, current per capita GDP and projected future excess death rates from climate change 21Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

22. 3. How best to share? Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201522

23. Various approaches to sharing 1. Resource sharing approaches Equal Per Capita Emission Rights Contraction and Convergence (C&C) Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC) One Billion High Emitters (aka the Princeton Proposal) The “Indian Prime Minister’s approach” Equal Cumulative Per Capita Emission Rights approaches 2. Effort sharing approaches Equity in the Greenhouse, South-North dialogue Brazilian Historic Responsibility Greenhouse Development Rights framework (now CERf) Oxfam approach EU approach for Annex I countries Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201523

24. Necessary attributes for approaches? (CAN-Int assessment criteria) Common but differentiated R&C Historical responsibility Current responsibility Future responsibility Capacity/capability Luxury emissions / Overconsumption National inequality Equal treatment for all Developed countries lead Right to sustainable development Supports science-based ambition & right to survival...... while providing sufficient space for finance for sustainable development Treats adaptation as core Subsidiary principles Economic cost-effectiveness Simplicity – of calculation – of public presentation Comparability Can include land-use changes Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201524

25. Brief descriptions of C&C, CERf/GDRf Equal Per Capita Emission Rights – proportional to population size, within global pathway Contraction and Convergence – current per capita emissions gradually converging to global per capita average, within global pathway Greenhouse Development Rights – proportional to responsibility (historic emissions) and capacity (ability to mitigate = GDP), within global pathway; responsibility and capacity index (RCI) includes a “development threshold” = a minimum income level above global poverty-line. Climate Equity Reference framework/project calculates multiple GDR-like scenarios (global pathway × start date for historical responsibility × weighting of responsibility vs capacity × +/- development threshold × +/- other progressivity × etc. etc.) Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201525

26. Different models/ways to divide the global budget between countries (Höhne et al 2013 – meta-modelling results for Japan+Australia+NZ) Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201526

27. Available calculators Climate Action Tracker – meta-models GCI Contraction & Convergence Climate Equity Reference Project Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201527

28. How the different models compare – C&C vs. CERf/GDR – 2030 targets Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201528

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30. 4. Use of models for NZ Photo Credit - © WWF-NZ Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201530

31. NZ is especially sensitive to model type NZ is small, with an unusual emissions profile Example: NZ has large variations between models Mexico (pop 125m, 5t per capita gGHG) has small variations NZ Mexico Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201531

32. Climate Action Tracker – for NZ -10 to +50 MtC02-eq gGHG by 2030 Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201532

33. CERf/GDRf – for NZ Gross all-gas emissions Net all-gas emissions Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201533

34. 2030 targets for NZ from different models: gross GHG NZ INDC Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201534

35. 2030 targets for NZ from different models: net GHG Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201535

36. Who takes NZ’s share if NZ doesn’t? Our smaller poorer Pacific neighbours? Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201536

37. Reminder: emitters vs affected cuml fCO2 1950-2013 selected excess climate change deaths 2030 maps by Mark Metcalfe

38. The bottom line: those impacted first and worst selected excess climate change deaths 2030 map by Mark Metcalfe

39. Summary NZ 2030 target: 18-22 Mt gross GHG (= 63-71% reduction from 1990) (5-23 Mt net GHG) Caveats: as a starting point prefer >2/3 odds of 2 o C ultimately 1.5 o C Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 201539

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41. Spare slides (for use prn)………………….. 41Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

42. Global emissions budgets – carbon vs greenhouse gases 42Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

43. Possible (new) world cartograms – to insert 1DALYL 2012 2population 2013 3population 2030 4GDP 2013 5fossil CO2 2013 6net GHG 2013 7cuml emissions 1950-2013, fCO2 8cuml emissions 1950-2013, nGHG 9cuml emissions 1950-2013, LUCF 10change 2013 vs 2012, fossil_CO2 11change 2013 vs 2012, net GHG 12change 2013 vs 2012, LUCF 13excess CC deaths 2030 14C&C 2030 nGHG alloc 15CERP 2030 nGHG alloc 16C&C 2015-30 nGHG budget 17CERP 2015-30 nGHG budget 43Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

44. Child mortality (ages 1-4) 44Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

45. Patterns vary +++ 45Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

46. Patterns vary +++ 46Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

47. 47Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

48. per capita fossil CO2 budgets 48Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

49. per capita fossil CO2 budgets 49Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

50. Cumulative fossil CO2 1950-2013, cf GDP in 2013 (log scales) 50Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

51. Poverty relates to poor health (GDP v. DALY losses) 51Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

52. Historic emissions correlate with both current per capita GDP and disease burden 52Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

53. Its complicated….. 53Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

54. 54Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

55. How the different models look across selected countries and compare with each other (incl NZ) 55Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

56. How the different models compare – C&C vs. CERf/GDR efforts 56Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

57. What 2030 targets the different models give for NZ (3) – CERP vs. INDC 57Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015

58. Effects on the Pacific of NZ’s stance (2)– per capita 58Scott Metcalfe, 25 September 2015