1. 1 _________________________________________________________ +1 312 762 3131 http://www.batescarey.com/ 191 North Wacker Suite 2400 (60606) - Chicago, Illinois UNITED STATES http://www.batescarey.com/ SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES Robert J. Bates November 2015

2. 2015 Insuralex Fall Meeting SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES Robert J. Bates, Jr. Maryann C. Hayes BATESCAREY LLP 191 N. Wacker Dr. Chicago, IL 60606 November 5, 2015 2

3. WHAT IS AN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE? Car that drives itself. Perceives the environment and moves where safe and desirable. “Robots.” No human supervision required. Everyone in AV is a passenger, or it can travel with no occupants at all. Goal: ubiquitous, safe and hacker proof. BatesCarey LLP 3

4. GOOGLE AV 2014: AV with no steering wheel or pedals. Available to public in 2017. Range finder is a Velodyne 64- beam laser. Generates a detailed 3D map of environment. AV combines maps with maps of the world, producing different data models. BatesCarey LLP 4

5. First Google AV (Prius) BatesCarey LLP 5

6. Latest Google AV BatesCarey LLP 6

7. Mercedes AV BatesCarey LLP 7

8. Mercedes AV BatesCarey LLP 8

9. Toyota AV BatesCarey LLP 9

10. Apple’s Prototype BatesCarey LLP 10

11. Nissan Conventional Nissan taxis above; Nissan and NASA are collaborating to develop a fleet of electric autonomous cabs. BatesCarey LLP 11

12. Dutch EZ-10 Autonomous Shuttle OF Ligier Group 2/9/15, “Netherlands First to Operate a Self-Driving Shuttle in Public Traffic?,” driverlessuser.com. BatesCarey LLP 12

13. Delphi / Audi SQ5 BatesCarey LLP 13

14. Tesla Model S BatesCarey LLP 14

15. Tesla Model X Interior Seats 7 Adults BatesCarey LLP 15

16. Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, expects true autonomous driving by 2023. In 5 or 6 years “we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination”. We may need another 2 to 3 years for regulatory approval. (Source: Huffington Post, 6/15/14) BatesCarey LLP 16

17. DRIVERLESS CHARIOTS FOR THE “1%” Tesla: With Models S and X, owner can “summon” car in self- driving mode from garage or driveway. Delphi: In March 2015, sent an AV Audi SQ5 SUV on a coast-to- coast drive -- the longest ever for an AV. Cadillac:Will offer “super-cruise” feature allowing cars to steer, brake, accelerate by themselves. Apple:With $178 billion in cash, has announced it will jump into the white-hot AV race. (“Project Titan.”) BatesCarey LLP 17

18. WHO WILL MAKE AVs? Car manufacturers: GM Ford VW-Audi Volvo Nissan Toyota Daimler AG Tesla SAIC Motors (Shanghai Auto. Ind. Corp.) BatesCarey LLP 18

19. WHO WILL MAKE AVs? Technological and Idea Innovators: Google Amazon Uber Apple Alibaba/Baidu BatesCarey LLP 19

20. WHO WILL MAKE AVs? Components manufacturers: Bosch Continental Delphi BatesCarey LLP 20

21. WHO WILL MAKE AVs? Carnegie Mellon and Cadillac SRX (Pittsburgh, PA) SAIC and Alibaba (China) NASA and Nissan (CA) Ford/State Farm/University of Michigan Partnerships: BatesCarey LLP 21

22. HOW WILL AVs BE USED? Nissan/NASA developing fleet of electric autonomous cabs. Nissan’s “Taxi of Tomorrow” is planned to replace NYC’s traditional Ford Crown Victoria cabs. Nissan’s all-electric AV taxi is already on sale in Europe. BatesCarey LLP 22

23. Pros 1.Safety: 90% of 5.5 million crashes in U.S. caused by driver error. Auto crash deaths are 8 th leading cause of death in the world. 1.2 million people per year world-wide; 33,000 in U.S. – equivalent of 5 Boeing jets crashing every week. 2.Productivity/Personal Savings: 50 minutes per person per day = economic value of $100 billion to $1 trillion. Decline in Car Ownership: Cars now cost drivers 18% of annual income for an asset they use only 5% of the time. BatesCarey LLP 23

24. Pros (cont.) 3.Reduced Traffic Congestion 25% of congestion due to accidents averted by AVs. AVs will respond better to traffic conditions. Networked AVs communicate, eliminating need to anticipate actions of other cars. 4.Environmental Benefits Goal is for AVs to be electric or hybrid. Cars account for 20% of all greenhouse gas emissions and 60% of petroleum use. Fuel efficiency will improve by 10% to 40%. BatesCarey LLP 24

25. Pros (cont.) 5.New trillion-dollar industry will provide countless opportunities for entrepreneurs to develop new technologies and services. BatesCarey LLP 25

26. Cons 1.Job loss in traditional industries: Trucking (3.5 million) Taxis Couriers 2.Loss of Revenue to Municipal Budgets: From speeding or parking tickets Less need for law enforcement to monitor roadways and accidents Reduced use of public transportation 3.Disruption to Current Land Use People may move to suburbs from cities since they can be productive during commute. BatesCarey LLP 26

27. POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2015 Google launches first short-range AV in California. Auto makers (Daimler, Honda, Nissan) announce initiatives to counter Google. Car2Go (Daimler) announces roadmap for autonomy in car fleet. BatesCarey LLP 27

28. POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2016 Google with short-range, AV fleet, built by Ford, Magna, or others. China: shared AVs; infrastructure expenditure; reduced ecological footprint. Google AV service to cities with little rain and no snow, e.g., Las Vegas and Sun City, AZ. Google first overseas fleet. Public sees benefits of AV tech, but concerned about job losses. BatesCarey LLP 28

29. POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2018 Car2Go adds AVs to fleet. Google-Uber merger rolls out AVs internationally. Investment in AV fleets/services, startups, and schemes. Countries compete to gain advantage in new industries. AVs safer than human driver; people safe and comfortable in AVs. BatesCarey LLP 29

30. POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2019 Vienna Convention and EU laws updated for AVs. AVs operate in over 50 cities worldwide. Growth for autonomous trucks; truck drivers protests. First high-end consumer cars capable of fully autonomous driving on national roads available. BatesCarey LLP 30

31. POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2020 New laws prohibit “bullying” of AVs (e.g., jumping in front of it to make it stop). Bleak outlook for auto companies; volume down. Consumers transition to AVs and shared AVs. Auto industry fights for survival. BatesCarey LLP 31

32. POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2022 Prices for used cars drop. Move to shared AVs; sell-off of non-AV vehicles. Mass transit turns to AVs. Insurance rates favor AVs. Many stop driving on their own. Drivers licenses illegal? (Elon Musk) BatesCarey LLP 32

33. POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2023 Autonomous buses used for medium- and long distance trips. Trains compete with autonomous buses. Companies dictate that business travel be in AVs, for safety and productivity. BatesCarey LLP 33

34. POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2025 Fleets of AVs operate in most cities of developed nations. Auto companies begin to shut down. Major auto countries -- Germany, Sweden, Japan -- try to prop up their OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers). BatesCarey LLP 34

35. POSSIBLE TIME LINE: 2030 Car ownership declines dramatically. Only 20% of the US population still own a car. 90% of all trips in AV mode. Traffic accidents/fatalities decline dramatically. BatesCarey LLP 35

36. McKINSEY REPORT, March 2015 1.Trucks likely to lead the way, ahead of passenger cars. 2.Automakers must change strategies. 3.New mobility options preempt car ownership. 4.AVs dictate maintenance; service shops require specialized equipment to service AVs. 5.Insurers shift from insuring against human error to insuring against technical failure. BatesCarey LLP 36

37. McKINSEY REPORT (cont.) 6.AVs will change logistics of transportation and supply chains. 7.Drivers will gain an extra 50 minutes a day. 8.AVs could free up 5.7 billion square meters of parking space in the US alone. 9.Far fewer and less lethal car crashes; lower costs to governments and taxpayers. 10.AVs will lead to commercial development of robotics in other areas. BatesCarey LLP 37

38. SAFETY IMPLICATIONS In 2010, there were 6 million crashes in the U.S., 93% due to human error. In 2012, over 33,000 deaths occurred in motor accidents; an average of 90 fatalities per day. Globally, there are 1.3 million fatalities and 50 million injuries every year. Most accidents are the result of the “4 Ds”: Distraction Drunkenness Drowsiness Driver Error BatesCarey LLP 38

39. INSURANCE $200 billion in auto premium per year in U.S. Market may decrease by 75% or more. Liability will be with car manufacturer, not owner/driver. Recent SEC filings note that AVs could decrease consumer demand for insurance: Travelers Companies Cincinnati Financial Mercury General BatesCarey LLP 39

40. INSURANCE Underwriting will decline in importance. In the long term, no more auto insurance for personal injury. Automakers could embrace increase in product liability by “bundling” insurance with AV sales. Start-ups, like mileage-based insurer MetroMile, might eat away at the edges. Car-sharing/fractional ownership may follow Uber model for insurance. BatesCarey LLP 40

41. INSURANCE Opportunities for insurers. Auto policies offered on “no fault” basis? Insurers may shift focus to customer relationships, claims processing, expense management. Auto insurance may become more like homeowner’s insurance; claims rare, but very high. Cyber risk vs. economic loss vs. product liability. Trucks/Fleet Coverage: bodily injury, economic loss, cyber loss. BatesCarey LLP 41

42. LIABILITY ISSUES--POLICY Four U.S. states and D.C. have passed laws permitting AVs: Nevada Florida California Michigan Patchwork of state-by-state or country by country laws and regulations? Smart road infrastructure, dedicated highway lanes, manufacturer or consumer incentives? BatesCarey LLP 42

43. CYBER RISK AVs will involve large amounts of connected data; smart phones and tablets. Malicious interference with AVs could have serious safety implications. AV system resilience and robust data encryption critical. BatesCarey LLP 43

44. CYBER RISK POSED BY HACKERS Could access personal data, such as journeys, to determine when person is not home. Malicious interference with movement of AVs, causing accidents. Large-scale immobilization of AVs. Misdirection of AVs. BatesCarey LLP 44

45. CONCLUSIONS AVs will change our world. Regulations needed to earn public trust. AV safety will prompt acceptance. As AVs become computerized and networked, cyber risk will be a key concern. With increase of cyber risk, cyber insurance will be required. Insurers may try to match exposure to premiums, and individually tailor policies to fleets and individuals. BatesCarey LLP 45

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55. Books Sullivan, Patrick, Getting Ready for Driverless Cars: Everything You Need to Know. 2015. Print. Tillemann, Levi. Great Race: The Global Quest for the Car of the Future. S.l.: Simon & Schuster, 2015. Print. Vance, Ashley, Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future, 2015. Print. Wayner, Peter. Future Ride: 80 Ways the Self-driving, Autonomous Car Will Change Everything from Buying Groceries to Teen Romance to Surviving a Hurricane to Turning Ten to Having a Heart Attack to Building a Dream Home to Simply Getting from Here to There. San Bernardino, CA: Peter Wayner, 2014. Print. 1452677 BatesCarey LLP 55