1. Convective Parameters Weather Systems – Fall 2015 Outline: a.Stability Indices b.Wind Shear and Helicity c. How to relate to predicted / observed convective weather

2. Convective Parameters Weather Systems – Fall 2015 COMET Skew-T Tutorial: http://www.meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/skewt/intro.htm http://www.meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/skewt/intro.htm

3. Simple definitions Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) The level at which condensation occurs when a mechanical process forces a parcel to rise to its saturation level. Forcing example: mountain forcing. Convective Condensation Level (CCL) The level at which condensation occurs when a thermal process forces a parcel of air to rise and become saturated. Requires that the parcel be warmed to its convective temperature (see below). Forcing example: surface heating. Convective Temperature (T c ) T c is the minimum T to which a parcel must be warmed so that it is buoyant enough to penetrate high enough through the overlying environmental air to reach its condensation level (CCL), relying only on its positive buoyancy to get there. Level of Free Convection (LFC) The lowest level at which a rising parcel becomes more buoyant than it’s surroundings and is free to continue rising. Equilibrium Level (EL) The level at which a buoyant parcel becomes neutrally buoyant and is no longer free to continue rising, except perhaps due to residual upward momentum. Lifting, Convection, and Condensation Parameters

4. Figure from Weather Analysis, D. Djuric, 1994 Lifting, Convection, and Condensation Parameters T a is the environmental lapse rate; T l is the parcel lapse rate LCL, LFC, EL on a thermodynamic diagram

5. Figure from Weather Analysis, D. Djuric, 1994 Lifting, Convection, and Condensation Parameters CCL, CT (T c ), EL on a thermodynamic diagram T a is the environmental lapse rate; T l is the parcel lapse rate

6. LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVEL (LCL) Def: The LCL is the height at which a parcel of air becomes saturated when it is lifted dry adiabatically. The LCL for a surface parcel is always found at or below the CCL. When the lapse rate is, or once it becomes, dry adiabatic from the surface to the cloud base, the LCL and CCL are identical. Procedure: The LCL is located on a sounding at the intersection of saturation mixing-ratio line through the surface dewpoint temperature with the dry adiabat through the surface temperature. Lifting, Convection, and Condensation Parameters – Determining Them TTdTd

7. CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL (CCL) Def: The height to which a parcel of air, if heated sufficiently from below, will rise adiabatically until it is just saturated (condensation starts). In the commonest case, it is the height of the base of cumuliform clouds which are, or would be, produced by thermal convection solely from surface heating. Procedure: To determine the CCL on a plotted sounding, proceed upward along the saturation mixing-ratio line through the surface dew-point temperature until this line intersects the T curve on the sounding. The CCL is the height of this intersection. Lifting, Convection, and Condensation Parameters – Determining Them TdTd

8. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE (T c ) Def: The convective temperature (T c ) is the surface temperature that must be reached to start the formation of convection clouds by heating of the surface layer air. Procedure: Determine the CCL on the plotted sounding. From the CCL point on the T curve of the sounding, proceed downward along the dry adiabat to the surface pressure isobar. The temperature read at this intersection is the convective temperature. Lifting, Convection, and Condensation Parameters – Determining Them

9. Stability Indices Indices predicting convective potential [Lifted Index (LI); Showalter stability Index (SSI); Total Totals (TT); K index (KI); Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) Index (SWI)]. These are in addition to parameters such as CAPE and CIN

10. CIN / CAPE

11. The energy that a parcel has for ascent, or needs to get from an external lifting process in order to ascend, is usually described in terms of energy per unit mass with units of J / kg. CIN valueImpact on Convection > 50convection inhibited, unless dynamic forcing is extreme 25-50convection inhibited, but moderate dynamic forcing or heating can overcome this inhibition 10-25 some forcing required to initiate convection < 10 convection can be initiated with only minimal forcing CAPE valueConvective potential < 300 Little or none 300-1000Weak 1000-2500Moderate 2500 and upStrong CIN / CAPE

12. Advantage: −CAPE is a robust indicator of the potential for deep convection and convective intensity −CAPE provides a measure of stability integrated over the depth of the sounding, as opposed to other indices Disadvantages: −The computation of CAPE is extremely sensitive to the mean mixing ratio in the lowest 500 m. For instance, a 1 g/kg increase can increase CAPE by 20% −Since the computation of CAPE is based on parcel theory, it does not take into account processes such as mixing, water loading and freezing. −Surface layer based CAPE computations may underestimate the convective potential in situations with elevated convection. −Since CAPE, by itself, does not account for wind shear, it may underestimate the potential for severe convection where strong wind shear is present. CAPE

13. Advantage: a good indicator of the amount of forcing necessary for an ‘air parcel’ to tap into environmental buoyancy Disadvantages: −Since the computation of CIN is based on parcel theory, it does not take into account processes such as mixing, water loading and freezing. −One caveat is that if the CIN is large but storms manage to form, usually due to increased moisture and/or heating overcoming the CIN, then the storms are more likely to be severe CIN

14. CIN / CAPE 11 hr Forecast from HRRR run Initialized at 10 UTC

15. CIN / CAPE 11 hr Forecast from HRRR run Initialized at 10 UTC Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook

16. Lifted Index (LI) Lifted Index (LI) is a simple parameter used to characterize the amount of instability in a given environment

17. Lifted Index (LI)

18. Advantage: easy to compute from a Skew-T diagram Disadvantages: −limited because it relies on only 3 sounding inputs (temperature and dewpoint of the boundary layer and the temperature at 500 hPa). Thus, important sounding features may be obscured, such as dry layers and/or inversions. −LI also does not take into account vertical wind shear, which is often an important element in the severe convective environment. Lifted Index (LI)

19. Lifted Index from HRRR

20. Lifted Index (LI) Lifted Index CAPE

21. Showalter Stability Index (SSI) Similar to the LI. While LI starts with a near-surface air parcel, the SSI uses a parcel lifted from 850 hPa environment

22. Showalter Stability Index (SSI)

23. Advantage: easy to compute from a Skew-T diagram Disadvantages: −It may under-represent the instability if the top of the moist layer falls below 850 hPa −It is intended for use at locations with a station elevation up to about 1000 feet −It does not take into account vertical wind shear, which also affects storm potential Showalter Stability Index (SSI)

24. K Index (KI) The K index (KI) is particularly useful for identifying convective and heavy-rain-producing environments. It does not require a skew-T diagram; it is simply computed from temperatures at 850, 700, and 500 hPa, and dewpoints at 850 and 700 hPa. The higher the moisture and the greater the 850-500 temperature difference, the higher the KI and potential for convection.

25. K Index (KI) KIThunderstorm Probability (%) 0-15~ 0 18-1920; thunderstorms unlikely 20-2535; isolated thunderstorms 26-2950; scattered thunderstorms 30-3585; numerous thunderstorms > 36~100

26. Advantage: Its computation takes into account the vertical distribution of both moisture and temperature. Disadvantages: −it can't be used to infer the severity of convection −last, like several other severe weather indexes, it does not take into account wind shear, which is a critical factor in many severe convective environments K Index (KI)

27. Total Totals (TT) It is computed using the temperature and dewpoint at 850 hPa and the temperature at 500 hPa. The higher the 850 hPa dewpoint and temperature and the lower the 500 hPa temperature, the greater the instability and the resulting TT value.

28. Total Totals (TT)

29. Advantage: easy to compute Disadvantages: −it is limited in that it uses data from only two mandatory levels (850 and 500 hPa) and thus does not account for intervening inversions or moist or dry layers that may occur below or between these levels. −In addition, it does not work for areas in the western Great Plains or the Rocky Mountains, where 850 hPa is near the surface or below ground. −Last, like several other severe weather indexes, it does not take into account wind shear, which is a critical factor in many severe convective environments. Total Totals (TT)

30. Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT) The SWEAT index differs from many of the other severe weather indices in that it takes into account the wind profile in assessing severe weather potential. Inputs include: - Total Totals index (TT) - 850 hPa dewpoint - 850 hPa wind speed and direction - 500 hPa wind speed and direction

31. Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT)

33. Advantage: advantageous for diagnosing severe convective potential since it takes into account many important parameters including low-level moisture, instability and the vertical wind shear (both speed and direction) Disadvantages: −a limitation is that the inputs are from only 850 and 500 hPa levels, obscuring any inversions, dry layers etc. that may be present in intervening layers. −it can also be somewhat cumbersome to compute, in the absence of an automated sounding routine such as the interactive skew-T. Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT)

34. Stability Indices 12 UTC Buffalo CAPE = 1622 J/kg (moderate) CIN = -38 J/kg (convection inhibited, but moderate dynamic forcing and/or heating can overcome) LI = -6.1 (strong SVR Wx potential) KI = 38 (100% T-storm probability) TT = 53 (SVR T-storm possible) SWEAT = 330 (SVR possible)

35. TORNADO WIND HAIL

36. Wind Shear Wind shear plays a large role in determining what form convection is likely to take Rasmussen and Wilhelmson (1983) M = mesoscylone, no tornado T = storm with 1 tornado TT = storm with >1 tornado D = derecho

37. Bulk Richardson Number Represents the ratio of buoyancy (as measured by CAPE) and the vertical wind shear. As we have noted, CAPE relates to updraft strength. Storm structure and movement are related to the vertical wind shear.

38. Static Stability Indices – CAPE and Vertical Velocity maximum is seldom realized due to entrainment and water loading

39. Bulk Richardson Number BRN < 10 ~ much more shear than buoyancy and storms tend to be torn apart by the shear exception: in strongly forced, high-shear, low-CAPE environments where supercells are observed with BRN < 10 10 < BRN < 35 ~ balance between shear and buoyancy favor supercells BRN > 50 ~ buoyancy dominates over shear and single- or multi-cell storms are more likely to be observed

40. Storm Relative Environmental Helicity (SREH) SREH provides an indication of an environment that favors the development of thunderstorms with rotating updrafts.

41. Storm Relative Environmental Helicity (SREH) High values of SREH (usually >150 m 2 /s 2 ) are usually associated with long-lived supercells with rotating updrafts, capable of producing tornadoes. SREH from HRRR NOTE: Buffalo sounding SREH = 88 m 2 /s 2

42. Storm Relative Environmental Helicity (SREH) when we compute helicity, it is most appropriate to use storm- relative winds to find the storm-relative wind, we subtract the anticipated or observed storm speed and direction from the wind at every level of the sounding this process requires a hodograph analysis of the wind profile to predict the storm motion

43. Storm Relative Environmental Helicity (SREH) on the hodograph, SREH is proportional to the area swept out by the storm relative wind vector over the depth of the inflow (typically 3 km AGL) SREH > 0 ~ right-moving storms, characterized by clockwise-curving hodographs (as shown here) and cyclonic rotation SREH < 0 ~ left-moving, anticyclonic-rotating storms with counterclockwise-curving hodographs

44. Storm Relative Environmental Helicity (SREH)

45. Advantage: SREH is perhaps the parameter most widely used to provide a good diagnosis for the potential for tornado-producing supercells Disadvantages: −like CAPE values, there is no magic value of (positive) helicity over which rotating thunderstorms will develop. −Furthermore, the calculation of SREH is quite sensitive to assumptions about storm motion and the environmental wind shear. −SREH, like other parameters, must be used with caution, especially with rapidly changing environmental conditions. Storm Relative Environmental Helicity (SREH)