1. Perceived risks and benefits in unlawful file sharing: An empirical analysis Steven Watson 1, Piers Fleming 2, Daniel J. Zizzo 3 1 Lancaster University 2 University of East Anglia 3 Newcastle University

2. Risk and behaviour Unlawful file sharing is widespread Legal challenges to reduce impact Risk vs. benefit as a motivator

3. Risk perception Additional moderators of risk perception – The “affect heuristic” Negative relationship between perceived benefit and perceived risk – Trust – Anonymity – Media

4. Survey Large two part survey by market research company – Part one: Risk, Benefit, Trust (industry and regulators), Anonymity – Part two: Extent of file sharing since part one Participants: eBooks (n = 737, M = 47.2 years, SD = 15.4 years), Music (n = 658, M = 47.3 years, SD = 15.36 years)

5. Results * **

6. Risk or benefits MediaVariableORLower 95% CI Upper 95% CI Wald χ 2 (1df) p eBooksRisk1.01.971.05.19.666 Benefit1.071.041.1120.43<.001* MusicRisk1.00.961.04.002.965 Benefit1.151.111.1882.31<.001* Outcome variable is self-reported unlawful downloads: None, low (1-3 files) or high (4+ files)

7. Affect heuristic MediaVariableBetas.e.tp eBooksConstant27.41.6145.12<.001 Benefits-.18.03-6.63<.001 MusicConstant26.70.5846.31<.001 Benefits-.11.02-4.79<.001 Outcome variable is perceived risk of unlawful downloading

8. Industry trust eBooksMusic High trust in industry is associated with higher risk In music, high trust is associated with a stronger relationship between perceived risk and benefit

9. Regulator trust High trust in regulators is associated with higher risk In music, and possibly eBooks, high trust is associated with a stronger relationship between perceived risk and benefit eBooksMusic

10. Anonymity High perceived anonymity is associated with lower risk High anonymity is associated with a weaker relationship between perceived risk and benefit eBooksMusic

11. Conclusions Affect heuristic present in unlawful file sharing Trust in punitive entities increased risk perception Anonymity decreased risk perception

12. Conclusions Risk does not predict behaviour whereas benefit does Suggests policy should focus more on encouraging solutions that target benefits: – Encourage legal services that meet demands of consumers – Undermine the benefits of unlawful services Supply Quality