1. ET2050 Baseline Scenario and Trends Michael Wegener Spiekermann & Wegener (S&W) ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Brussels, 19 March 2012

2. 2 Baseline scenario The ET2050 baseline scenario will be a status-quo or business-as-usual scenario which assumes the most likely continuation of exogenous trends, including saturation effects, the general continuation of policy practices used in the recent past until 2030 or 2050. The baseline scenario will assume a future develop- ment without major shocks. If there are large differences between possible devel- opments, the baseline scenario will steer a middle course between the extremes.

3. 3 Scenario definitions Because in ET2050 the scenarios will be assessed by experts and with models, it is important that they are defined in terms of model input, not output. Model inputs are assumptions, such as: assumptions about exogenous developments, assumptions about EU or national policies. Model outputs are impacts, such as: regional population/economic development, trade flows and transport volumes, energy consumption, CO 2 emissions. Expected impacts should therefore not be part of the scenario definitions.

4. 4 Baseline scenario: trends Based on the criteria defined above, the eight "Vital Signs of the Baseline 2010-2050" listed in Baseline Scenario Narratives should be re-phrased for the baseline scenario definition: 1Population: Population development should be entered in the form of migration policy. 2Urbanisation: Growth of cities is an impact of economies of scale and transport policy. 3Economy: Total economic development of Europe is exogenous. 4Innovation: Innovation should be addressed in the form of R&D investment. (continued)

5. 5 Baseline scenario: trends (cont'd) 5Energy: Energy consumption is a function of exo- genous energy prices and energy policy. 6Climate change: CO 2 emissions are a fucntion of energy consumption and technology. 7Transport: Transport volume is a function of trade flows and transport policy. 8Reforms blocked: This assumption should be made explicit by type of policy. The "History of European Decline" scenario is an inter- esting think piece but not suited as baseline scenario because of its too negative character. It may perhaps be used as a "worst-case" exploratory scenario.

6. 6 Exploratory scenarios In addition to the criteria for the definition of scenarios proposed above, also other criteria might be applied to define the exploratory scenarios: They should be differentiated in space, i.e. address the European, macro-regional, national and regional scale. They should be differentiated in time, i.e. account for different phases of development of countries/regions. They could be combined with alternative framework assumptions than in the baseline scenario, such as Global integration, Fortress Europe, Energy scarcity or Euro crisis (see Wegener, 2012).

7. 7 Integrated phased strategies In the exploratory scenarios, integrated strategies should be examined: The strategies should be integrated, i.e. combine policies from several sectoral policy fields to exploit synergies between them. The strategies should be differentiated in space and time to account for the different needs of individual member states in different phases of their economic and social development.

8. 8 Biosca, O., Ulied, A. (2012): ET2050 Baseline Scenario 2030 Narratives. Draft 14/03/2012. Barcelona: MCRIT S.L., http://www.et2050.eu/europe_2050/Bru_Meeting/ET2050_ BASELINE_NARRATIVES.doc Biosca, O., Ulied, A. (2012): ET2050 Baseline Scenario 2030 Sectoral Trends. Draft 14/03/2012. Barcelona: MCRIT S.L., http://www.et2050.eu/europe_2050/Bru_Meeting/ET2050_ BASELINE_SECTORAL_TRENDS.doc Wegener, M. (2012): ET2050 Comments on the discussion paper about prospective scenarios following the Barcelona debate. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research, http://www.et2050.eu/europe_2050/ TechNotes/ET2050_DiscNote10_MWegener_v130112.doc More information