1. Department of Economics ACRE ACRE Program Details Meeting Janesville, Arlington, and Rosendale, Wisconsin August 4, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Department of Economics Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE)  ACRE is a revenue-based counter-cyclical payment program  Based on state and farm-level yields per planted acre and national prices  Producers choose between the current price- based counter-cyclical payment (CCP) program and ACRE  Program has state and farm trigger levels, both must be met before payments are made

3. Department of Economics Farmer Choice  Starting in 2009, producers will be given the option of choosing ACRE or not  Can choose to start ACRE in 2009, 2010, or beyond  Once you’re in ACRE, you stay in ACRE until the next farm bill  If you sign up for ACRE, you must do so for all eligible crops  Deadline for sign-up, Aug. 14 (this year)  Producers choosing ACRE agree to 20% decline in direct payments and 30% decline in loan rates

4. Department of Economics ACRE Settings  ACRE is based on planted acres  Total acres eligible for ACRE payments limited to total number of base acres on the farm  Farmers may choose which planted acres are enrolled in ACRE when total base area is exceeded

5. Department of Economics ACRE Set-up for Wisconsin Corn YearYield per Planted Acre (bu./acre) 2004135.0 2005148.0 2006142.0 2007135.0 2008136.0 Olympic Average138.0 YearSeason-average Price ($/bu.) 20074.20 20084.05 Average4.13 The 2008 yield and price are USDA’s July 2009 estimates. So the expected state yield would be 138.0 bushels per acre and the ACRE price guarantee would be $4.13 per bushel.

6. Department of Economics ACRE Structure  ACRE revenue guarantee = 90% * ACRE price guarantee * Expected state yield  For our example, the ACRE revenue guarantee is 90% * $4.13/bu. * 138.0 bu./acre  $512.95/acre

7. Department of Economics Wisconsin Preliminary ACRE Guarantees CropPriceYieldACRE Guarantee Wheat$6.6361.9$369.36 Soybeans$10.0539.0$352.76 Oats$2.8964.0$166.46 Barley$4.0954.0$198.77 Canola$0.18531,050.0$175.11 Dry Peas$0.13251,270.0$151.45 Flaxseed$13.0016.5$193.05 Sorghum$3.6460.0$196.56 Mustard$0.2788670.0$168.12 Rapeseed$0.18231,280.0$210.01 Safflower$0.1965650.0$114.95 Sunflower$0.22151,108.0$220.88

8. Department of Economics ACRE Structure  ACRE Farm revenue trigger = Expected farm yield * ACRE price guarantee + Producer-paid crop insurance premium  Let’s assume farm yields equal to state yields and use the average producer-paid crop insurance premium for 2008  138.0 bu./acre * $4.13/bu. + $26.86/acre  $596.80/acre

9. Department of Economics ACRE Payment Triggers  ACRE actual state/farm revenue = Max(Season-average price, ACRE Loan rate) * Actual state/farm yield per planted acre  Given our example, ACRE payments are triggered when ACRE actual revenue is below $512.95/acre and ACRE actual farm revenue is below $596.80/acre

10. Department of Economics ACRE Payments  Payment rate = Min(ACRE revenue guarantee – ACRE actual revenue, 25% * ACRE revenue guarantee)  ACRE payment adjustment: Payment multiplied by ratio of Expected farm yield to Expected state yield  Payments made on 83.3% of planted acres in 2009-11, 85% in 2012 (up to total base acres)

11. Department of Economics ACRE Payment Timing  Payments can begin as soon as practicable possible after the end of the marketing year  So 2009 ACRE payments could start to be paid out in October 2010  There are no provisions for advance payments

12. Department of Economics ACRE vs. CCP ACRE pays out No ACRE payments CCP pays No CCP payments If price = $3.75, yields below 136.8 bushels per acre will trigger a payment. If price = $3.25, yields below 157.8 bushels per acre will trigger a payment.

13. Department of Economics Looking Beyond 2009  The ACRE revenue guarantee is updated each year using the same rules  5 year Olympic average for yields  2 year average for prices  But the ACRE revenue guarantee can not change by more than 10 percent (up or down) from year to year  So if the 2009 ACRE revenue guarantee is $512.95, then the 2010 ACRE revenue guarantee must be between $461.65 and $564.25

14. Department of Economics An Example for 2009  To start, we need the expected state and farm yields and the ACRE price guarantee  Expected state yield 138 bu/acre  Expected farm yield 145 bu/acre  2004-08 Olympic average of yields per planted acre  ACRE price guarantee$4.13/bu  Average of 2007 and 2008 season-average prices  ACRE Revenue Guarantee$512.95  90% * $4.13/bu * 138 bu/acre  ACRE Farm Revenue Guarantee$618.85  $4.13 * 145 bu/acre + $20/acre

15. Department of Economics Example (continued)  For 2009, we need the actual state yield, the actual farm yield, and the season-average price  Actual state yield 140 bu/acre  Actual farm yield 155 bu/acre  Season-Average Price$3.50/bu  ACRE Actual Revenue$490.00  $3.50/bu * 140 bu/acre  ACRE Farm Actual Revenue$542.50  $3.50/bu * 155 bu/acre

16. Department of Economics Example (continued)  State Trigger  ACRE Revenue Guarantee$512.95  ACRE Actual Revenue$490.00  So we’ve met the state trigger  Farm Trigger  ACRE Farm Revenue Guarantee$618.85  ACRE Farm Actual Revenue$542.50  So we’ve met the farm trigger

17. Department of Economics Example (continued)  ACRE Payment$20.09  Min(25%*$512.95, $512.95 – $490.00) * (145 bu/acre / 138 bu/acre) * 83.3%

18. Department of Economics Farmer’s Choice  In deciding about ACRE, farmers must weigh:  The loss of 20% of their direct payments, a 30% drop in the marketing loan rate, and no access to CCP payments versus  The potential for payments under ACRE

19. Department of Economics Comparing Program Parameters  For Wisconsin Corn  Under the current CCP program  CCP Yield Average = 109.8 bushels per acre  CCP Effective Target Price = $2.35/bushel  In our example, for ACRE  ACRE Yield Guarantee = 138.0 bushels per acre  ACRE Price Guarantee = $4.13/bushel  20% of average WI corn direct payment = $4.83 per acre

20. Department of Economics Factors to Consider  ACRE looks more attractive if:  You think prices will fall in the future, but stay above the current loan rates  Markets continue to show higher price volatilities  Current programs look more attractive if:  You think prices will rise in the future  Potentially no ACRE payments combined with cut in direct payments

21. Department of Economics Quick Comparison (Your results may vary) Source: William Edwards, ISU Extension

22. Department of Economics ACRE Signup Ends Soon  ACRE signup started in April, will end August 14 th  Can signup for 2010 crop next year  ACRE information and tools are available at: http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=home&subject=dccp&topic=landing http://www.aae.wisc.edu/mitchell/extension.htm http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a1-45.html http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/fasttools/index.asp

23. Department of Economics Forms and Records  Forms  Election: CCC-509 ACRE (fill out once)  Enrollment: CCC-509 (fill out each year)  If you do not fill out the enrollment paperwork, you are not in the program  All producers, including landowners, must sign the election form  Records  Must annually report acreage and production to FSA  In proving historical farm yields, producers must present production records for continuous years (no gaps are allowed)

24. Department of Economics Forms and Records  Records  The farm yields will be the higher of the proven farm yield or 95% of the county average yield determined by FSA (NASS county production/FSA county acreage)  Future farm yields (2009 and beyond) will be proven  Zero production reports are allowed  Crop insurance and NAP production reports will work  Commercial receipts, settlement sheets, warehouse ledger sheets that are reliable and/or verifiable will work  Loan and LDP records will work  Production data for 2009 needs to turned in by June 30, 2010

25. Department of Economics Thanks for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/