1. © Imperial College LondonPage 1 Simulation of London air quality during June 2006 and the effects of emission control scenarios Andrea Fraser NCAS funded PhD student Supervised byProf. H ApSimon Prof. R Derwent

2. © Imperial College LondonPage 2 June - July 2006 A number of Air Quality events reported on the London air quality network (LAQN) website 6 th -9 th June Ozone 17 th -18 th JuneOzone SO 2 PM10 3 rd July Ozone SO 2 (incidents since 28 th June) 12 th -17 th JulyOzone SO 2 25 th -26 th JulyWidespread Ozone PM NO 2 SO 2

3. © Imperial College LondonPage 3 Meteorology and Emissions Pre-Processing Meteorology Using the UK Met. Office UM data (BADC archive) processed with UM-MCIP to create CMAQ ready files 1 st June to 8 th July Emissions Processed by applying temporal factors to EMEP and NAEI (2003) emissions inventories. Natural emissions based on Biogenic Potential inventory (BPI) on EMEP grid. (Dore, Hayman et al 2003)

4. © Imperial College LondonPage 4 CMAQ CMAQ v 4.5.1 Chemistry Carbon Bond IV with aqueous and aerosol chemistry SolverRosenbrock 3 nested grids

5. © Imperial College LondonPage 5 CMAQ Grid A1 Europe 48 x 48km resolution, 24 layers Uses UM Global Meteorology at 3hr time steps Emissions based on EMEP (2003) Natural emissions based on Biogenic Potential inventory (BPI) on EMEP grid NO emissions

6. © Imperial College LondonPage 6 CMAQ Grid A2 12 x 12km resolution, 24 layers Uses UM Mesoscale Meteorology at 1hr time steps (approx. 12 x 12km) Europe emissions based on EMEP (2003) and natural emissions based on BPI UK emissions based on NAEI(2003) NO emissions

7. © Imperial College LondonPage 7 CMAQ Grid A3 4 x 4km resolution, 24 layers Uses UM Mesoscale Meteorology at 1hr time steps (approx. 12x12km) Europe emissions based on EMEP (2003) and natural emissions based on BPI UK emissions based on NAEI(2003) NO emissions

8. © Imperial College LondonPage 8 Evaluate Model vs. Observed Ozone AURN Rural site

9. © Imperial College LondonPage 9 AURN Urban sites

10. © Imperial College LondonPage 10 Model – Observations in London 32 Sites Units ppb

11. © Imperial College LondonPage 11 Model – Observations in London Time of day All sites Units ppb

12. © Imperial College LondonPage 12 Effect of NO x and VOC emissions reductions on Ozone NO x reductions base case – 30% less NO x Anthropogenic VOC reduction base case – 30% less VOC NO x and Anthropogenic VOC reduction base case – 30% less VOC and NO x

13. © Imperial College LondonPage 13 NO x sensitivity

14. © Imperial College LondonPage 14 VOC sensitivity

15. © Imperial College LondonPage 15 NO x sensitivity VOC sensitivity

16. © Imperial College LondonPage 16 Evaluate NO x sensitivity Brute force O 3 /NOy indicator

17. © Imperial College LondonPage 17 Evaluate VOC sensitivity Brute force H 2 O 2 /HNO 3 indicator

18. © Imperial College LondonPage 18 NO x sensitivity NO x -VOC sensitivity

19. © Imperial College LondonPage 19 Difference in NO x and NO x -VOC sensitivity

20. © Imperial College LondonPage 20 Difference in NO x and NO x -VOC sensitivity

21. © Imperial College LondonPage 21 Acknowledgements UM-MCIP – developed by G Taylor (Aeolus) funded by UWERN BADC data extraction procedure – Chang Wang EMEP2CMAQ – Armin Aulinger GKSS Biogenic Potential Inventory – Garry Hayman

22. © Imperial College LondonPage 22 Ongoing work Process data to include the full 6 weeks. Compare CMAQ performance on different days and at different locations Evaluate CMAQ using Process analysis

23. © Imperial College LondonPage 23 NO x sensitivity VOC sensitivity

24. © Imperial College LondonPage 24 Ozone Model-Observations in London 32 sites Units ppb

25. © Imperial College LondonPage 25 Model – Observations in London Suburban Urban background Road side Site Category Urban background 12 sites Suburban 4 sites Roadside 5 sites Units ppb