1. Party in the electorate

2. Business analogy Investors (Activists, donors) Fund, organize, Shape product to appeal to consumers Product (Candidates and Policies) Consumers (Party identifiers) Consumers determine what products are most attractive

3. Today: the consumers.

4. Are party identifiers part of the party organization?

5. Freewrite What is your earliest political memory? What does that memory tell you about the way you developed your political identity?

6. Party identification A socialized, psychological attachment to a political party An information processing shortcut An information screen

7. Will the issue of global warming play an important or not important role in your decision to vote for a congressional candidate in November, or will it not be a factor in your vote? ( LA Times poll, Aug 2006, 1478 reg. voters)

8. Which comes closest to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. OR, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry. OR, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship? (CBS poll, Oct 2006, 1086 adults)

9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling gas prices? (June 2006, CBS poll, 659 adults)

10. Party identification A socialized, psychological attachment to a political party An information processing shortcut An information screen A predictor of vote choice

11. Party ID as predictor of vote choice for president

12. Does a person’s party id change over time? Mostly not. But sometimes. When? In periods of political upheaval –Period effects –Generation effects In responses to changes in life circumstances –Life cycle effects –Young more likely to change

13. Strong partisans More likely to vote, be informed, and participate

14. Did you read a newspaper about the 2004 presidential election?

15. Did you vote in the 2004 presidential election?

16. Strong partisans More likely to vote, be informed, and participate Why? Better information processing Got somebody to root for

17. What do we know about independents?

18. Independents There are fewer of them than partisans

19. Partisanship

20. Independents There are fewer of them than partisans Many who say they are “independent” actually lean Leaners are fairly reliable party voters Some other “independents” are clueless Only about 10% of voters are true political independents

21. Of the Independents…

22. Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Dems)

23. Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Reeps)

24. Independents There are fewer of them than partisans Many who say they are “independent” actually lean Leaners are fairly reliable party voters True attitudinal independents less likely to be informed, vote, participate Behavioral independents / split ticketers do determine election outcomes

25. Behavioral independents, Dems

26. Behavioral independents, Reps

27. Is party identification good for democracy?