1. Congress and 2008

2. Why the Democrats Win The Incumbency advantage The Fundraising Advantage The Retirement Advantage The Partisan Advantage

3. The Democratic Fundraising Advantage

4. Interest Group spending What they Can Do Where they Spent

5. 501’s and 527’s What they are Where they Spent

6. THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE ADVANTAGE Retirements and Strategic challengers

7. Candidate Quality We Vote For members who we trust Political Amateurs? What is a quality Challenger?

8. Strategic Challengers Run when they are advantaged by the Opportunities What is Involved

9. The Incumbent Calculus LOSE< RETIRE< WIN

10. Strategic Politicians and 2008 The Democrats were willing to Run Republicans stayed home, or Retired

11. Attracting Good Challengers The GOP cannot find good challengers The Democrats did –In the House –In the Senate

12. Voluntary Retirements When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election. Why people Retire?

13. Retirements in the House 3 Special Elections in 2007 set the stage 23 Retirements and 29 open House seats for the GOP to Defend 7 open seats for the Democrats

14. Retirements in the Senate ZERO Democrats retired in 2008 5 Republicans –2 Safe States –Colorado, New Mexico, and Virgina

15. Why Retire or Stay Why So many GOP Retirements Why So Many Democrats did not

16. The Democratic Partisan Advantage (National Factors as Well)

17. Wave Elections They usually correct themselves 2006 and 2008 featured Democratic Tides –Unpopular Bush Presidency –Macro Factors

18. Contextual Factors A Sour Mood in the electorate 90% of voters believed the country was on the wrong track Consumer Confidence was at an all time low

19. A Poor Economy

20. The Bush Legacy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91l_h7UpQcs

21. The Republican Brand A Tarnished Image Responsibility without Power Scandal Forced to go on local factors in a national election

22. A Shift in Partisan Loyalty Democrats grew with young voters Independents leaned Democratic Other Groups Went Democratic Key States went Democratic

23. The House Results

24. Fewer Safe GOP Seats GOP Gerrymandering Didn’t Work Congress is Unpopular

25. The Results 435 Up for Grabs Democrats Gain 23 House Seats The GOP is driven From New England

26. The House Results

27. Where the Democrats Won Defeating Vulnerable Republicans Winning in Districts where Bush Did Poorly Winning the Open Seats

28. The Senate

29. The Dynamics The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend –22 Republican Seats –12 Democratic Seats –5 open GOP Seats A Weak Republican Class

30. The Results

31. Why The Democrats Won Open Seats National Tides Red Senators in Blue States Not as big as it could have been

32. The Obama Effect In Red States –Net loss of 1 House Seat –1 senate Seat In the Flipped states –12 House Seats –4 Senate Seats In the Blue States –10 House Seats –3 Senate Seats