1. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Exoplanets: From Kepler, to HARPS-N, and Gaia A. Sozzetti INAF – Osservatorio Astrofisico di Torino

2. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Detection/Characterization Detection (Visible): Detection (Visible): - Doppler spectroscopy (92%) - Doppler spectroscopy (92%) - Transit photometry (34%) - Transit photometry (34%) - Gravitational microlensing (2%) - Gravitational microlensing (2%) - Pulsar/pulsation timing (2%) - Pulsar/pulsation timing (2%) - imaging (4%) Characterization (Visible/IR): Characterization (Visible/IR): - Transit timing - Transit timing - Transmission spectroscopy - Transmission spectroscopy - Rossiter-McLaughlin effect - Rossiter-McLaughlin effect - Reflected light - Infrared emission - Infrared emission 864 Exoplanets known today, in 679 systems 129 in multiple-planet systems

3. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Learn about the history of planet migration through Rossiter-McLaughlin effect measurementsLearn about the history of planet migration through Rossiter-McLaughlin effect measurements Learn about the architecture of multiple systemsLearn about the architecture of multiple systems Learn about the physical structure and composition of exoplanetsLearn about the physical structure and composition of exoplanets Learn about the structure, chemistry, and dynamics of atmospheresLearn about the structure, chemistry, and dynamics of atmospheres Transiting Planets: A Treasure Trove

4. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Kepler: a 10 -5 mag Precision Machine!

5. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013

6. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 High-Precision RVs 1-m/s precision measurements 1-m/s precision measurements Fundamental for transiting candidates confirmation (mass determination) Fundamental for transiting candidates confirmation (mass determination) Long-term surveys (e.g. HARPS) critical for uncovering planet properties, frequencies, and correlations with the hosts’ characteristics Long-term surveys (e.g. HARPS) critical for uncovering planet properties, frequencies, and correlations with the hosts’ characteristics The discovery of planets of planets with Earth’s mass (not radius) already made! The discovery of planets of planets with Earth’s mass (not radius) already made!

7. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 α Cen Bb

8. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 The HARPS-N Opportunity GAPS: A long-term programme for the comprehensive characterization of the architectural properties of planetary systems as a function of the hosts’ characteristics GTO: 1) determine densities of terrestrial planets identified by Kepler, 2) look for rocky planets around nearby solar-type dwarfs + =

9. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 The APACHE Project * A quasi-zero km transit search for small-size planets around low-mass stars * 5 40-cm telescopes, fully automated operations, lasting five years * A starting catalog of 3000 bright northern dwarfs

10. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Astrometry measures stellar positions and uses them to determine a binary orbit projected onto the plane of the sky Astrometry measures stellar positions and uses them to determine a binary orbit projected onto the plane of the sky measures all 7 parameters of the orbit, in multiple systems it derives the relative inclination angles between pairs of orbits, regardless of the actual geometry. Mass is derived given a guess for the primary’s. measures all 7 parameters of the orbit, in multiple systems it derives the relative inclination angles between pairs of orbits, regardless of the actual geometry. Mass is derived given a guess for the primary’s. In analysis, one has to take the proper motion and the stellar parallax into account In analysis, one has to take the proper motion and the stellar parallax into account The measured amplitude of the orbital motion (in mas) is: The measured amplitude of the orbital motion (in mas) is: Astrometric Orbits

11. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 μas Astrometry: Challenges Like RV, it faces: - technological challenges (achievable precision, ground vs. space, instrument configuration, choice of wavelength, calibrations, etc.) - astrophysical challenges (noise sources characterization) - data modeling challenges (orbital fits) See e.g. Sozzetti (2005, 2010) Sozzetti 2005 - Narrow-angle, relative astrometry: both from the ground and in space (VLTI/PRIMA,???) - Global astrometry: only in space (Gaia) Hipparcos

12. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Fitting Planetary Systems Orbits Highly non-linear fitting procedures, with a large number of model parameters (at a minimum, N p =5+7*n pl, not counting references) Highly non-linear fitting procedures, with a large number of model parameters (at a minimum, N p =5+7*n pl, not counting references) Redundancy requirement: N obs >> N p Redundancy requirement: N obs >> N p Global searches (grids, Fourier decomposition, genetic algorithms, Bayesian inference +MCMC) must be coupled to local minimization procedures (e.g., L-M) Global searches (grids, Fourier decomposition, genetic algorithms, Bayesian inference +MCMC) must be coupled to local minimization procedures (e.g., L-M) For strongly interacting systems, dynamical fits using N-body codes will be required For strongly interacting systems, dynamical fits using N-body codes will be required

13. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Assessing Detections Errors on orbital parameters: covariance matrix vs.  2 surface mapping vs. bootstrapping procedures Errors on orbital parameters: covariance matrix vs.  2 surface mapping vs. bootstrapping procedures Confidence in an n-component orbital solution: FAPs, F- tests, MLR tests, statistical properties of the errors on the model parameters, others? Confidence in an n-component orbital solution: FAPs, F- tests, MLR tests, statistical properties of the errors on the model parameters, others? Importance of consistency checks between different solution algorithms Importance of consistency checks between different solution algorithms Memento lessons learned from RV surveys, with disagreement on orbital solution details, and sometime number of planets!! Memento lessons learned from RV surveys, with disagreement on orbital solution details, and sometime number of planets!!

14. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Gaia CU4 – NSS Treatment

15. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Gaia CU4 – Astrometric NSS Treatment

16. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Exoplanets in the Gaia DPAC Pipeline

17. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 The Italian Contribution DU 437: A. Sozzetti (Leader), M.G. Lattanzi, R. Morbidelli, A. Spagna (INAF-OATo)DU 437: A. Sozzetti (Leader), M.G. Lattanzi, R. Morbidelli, A. Spagna (INAF-OATo) tasks: single- and multiple-keplerian orbit fitting tasks: single- and multiple-keplerian orbit fitting DU 437: Obs. Geneva, IMCCE ParisDU 437: Obs. Geneva, IMCCE Paris tasks: alternate multiple-Keplerian orbit fitting, dynamical stability analysis tasks: alternate multiple-Keplerian orbit fitting, dynamical stability analysis The Others

18. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Gaia transiting candidates? - Low-cadence of the observations a serious limitation - It’s not hopeless if you have the right tools! (Dzigan & Zucker 2012) - It can work for early detections of (1000?) short-period transiting Jupiters, BUT: BUT: A) It will depend upon the actual content of Gaia early data releases B) It will require the definition of transit candidates as Science Alerts (TBD) C) It will require a dedicated follow-up network D) Confirmation efforts will be limited by V mag (typically, V > 14 mag)

19. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Sozzetti 2011 Gaia Discovery Space 1)2-3 M J planets at 2<a<4 AU are detectable 2<a<4 AU are detectable out to~200 pc around out to~200 pc around solar analogs solar analogs 2) Saturn-mass planets with 1<a<4 AU are measurable 1<a<4 AU are measurable around nearby (<25 pc) around nearby (<25 pc) M dwarfs M dwarfs For Gaia: σ A ~ 20 μas

20. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 How Many Planets will Gaia find? How Many Multiple-Planet Systems will Gaia find? Star counts of F-G-K dwarfs (V<13), F p (M p,P), Gaia completeness limit Star counts of F-G-K dwarfs (V<13), F p,mult, Gaia detection limit Casertano, Lattanzi, Sozzetti et al. 2008 Unbiased, magnitude-limited planet census of hundreds of thousands stars

21. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Gaia - Synergies Objectives of study within the GREAT RNP/ITN Gaia & spectroscopic characterization observatories (e.g., EChO) Gaia & spectroscopic characterization observatories (e.g., EChO) Gaia & transit surveys from the ground (e.g., WASP, APACHE) and in space (CoRoT, Kepler, CHEOPS) Gaia & transit surveys from the ground (e.g., WASP, APACHE) and in space (CoRoT, Kepler, CHEOPS) Gaia & direct imaging observatories (e.g., SPHERE,PCS) Gaia & direct imaging observatories (e.g., SPHERE,PCS) Gaia & RV programs (e.g., HARPS(-N), ESPRESSO, CARMENES, and the likes) Gaia & RV programs (e.g., HARPS(-N), ESPRESSO, CARMENES, and the likes) Gaia & ground-based and space-borne astrometry Gaia & ground-based and space-borne astrometry

22. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Synergy with RVs Complete characterization of systems architectures across orders of magnitude in mass and orbital separation Refinement of known orbits Complete dynamical stability studies in multiple systems

23. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Atmospheric Characterization For 0.3<a<3.0 AU, uncertainties in the emergent flux will typically be 10-15% Potential synergy with direct imaging, reflected light and atmospheric characterizationmeasurements

24. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 Hosts of Transiting Planets Parallaxes of virtually ALL planet-hosting stars released formally around mid-2016 Parallaxes of virtually ALL planet-hosting stars released formally around mid-2016 For a typical target with V~15 at d~ 20(500) pc, expect σ(π)/π<0.1(2-3)% For a typical target with V~15 at d~ 20(500) pc, expect σ(π)/π<0.1(2-3)% Re-calibrate absolute luminosities (particularly at the bottom of the main sequence) Re-calibrate absolute luminosities (particularly at the bottom of the main sequence) Derive trigonometric gravities to ~0.03(0.05) dex Derive trigonometric gravities to ~0.03(0.05) dex Re-determine the stellar radii to <3(5)% accuracy Re-determine the stellar radii to <3(5)% accuracy Great synergy with ground-based and space-borne transit surveys Great synergy with ground-based and space-borne transit surveys

25. L’Italia in Gaia INAF – OA Roma, 14 Feb 2013 The Take-Home Message Providing the largest catalogue of ‘new’ astrometric orbits & masses of extrasolar planets and superbly accurate parallaxes is Gaia’s defining role in the exoplanet arena Providing the largest catalogue of ‘new’ astrometric orbits & masses of extrasolar planets and superbly accurate parallaxes is Gaia’s defining role in the exoplanet arena Gaia will help to better characterize thousands of (old and new) planetary systems (in terms of both the planets and the hosts) Gaia will help to better characterize thousands of (old and new) planetary systems (in terms of both the planets and the hosts) The synergies between Gaia and ongoing and planned exoplanet detection and (atmospheric) characterization programs from the ground and in space are potentially huge The synergies between Gaia and ongoing and planned exoplanet detection and (atmospheric) characterization programs from the ground and in space are potentially huge The Italian community is now engaged in cutting-edge programs The Italian community is now engaged in cutting-edge programs It should be prepared to take advantage of the Gaia opportunity It should be prepared to take advantage of the Gaia opportunity And in fact (talks by Busonero, Martino, Marrese), it IS getting ready! And in fact (talks by Busonero, Martino, Marrese), it IS getting ready!