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Probability

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THEORETICAL Theoretical probability can be found without doing and experiment. EXPERIMENTAL Experimental probability is found by repeating an experiment and observing the outcomes.

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I am going to take 1 marble from the bag. What is the probability that I will pick out a red marble? Theoretical Probability I have three marbles in a bag. 1 marble is red 1 marble is blue 1 marble is green

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Theoretical Probability Since there are three marbles and only one is red, I have a 1 in 3 chance of picking out a red marble. I can write this in three ways: As a fraction: 1/3 As a decimal:.33 As a percent: 33%

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Experimental Probability Notice the Experimental Probability of drawing a red, blue or green marble.

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Simple Probability The probability of one independent event. An independent event is one that does not affect the outcome (or probability) of any other event.

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Simple Probability

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probability of an event or P(event) is number of favorable outcomes total number of possible outcomes Simple Probability

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probability of an event or P(event) is number of favorable outcomes total number of possible outcomes Example 1: Sarah rolls two 6-sided numbered cubes. What is the probability that the two numbers added together will equal 5? Simple Probability

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probability of an event or P(event) is number of favorable outcomes total number of possible outcomes Example 1: Sarah rolls two 6-sided numbered cubes. What is the probability that the two numbers added together will equal 5? 4/36 = 1/9 Simple Probability

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probability of an event or P(event) is number of favorable outcomes total number of possible outcomes Example 1: Sarah rolls two 6-sided numbered cubes. What is the probability that the two numbers added together will equal 5? 4/36 = 1/9 Simple Probability Example 2: What is the probability of drawing a king from a deck of cards?

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probability of an event or P(event) is number of favorable outcomes total number of possible outcomes Example 1: Sarah rolls two 6-sided numbered cubes. What is the probability that the two numbers added together will equal 5? 4/36 = 1/9 Simple Probability Example 2: What is the probability of drawing a king from a deck of cards? 4/52 or 1/13

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probability of an event or P(event) is number of favorable outcomes total number of possible outcomes Example 1: Sarah rolls two 6-sided numbered cubes. What is the probability that the two numbers added together will equal 5? 4/36 = 1/9 Simple Probability Example 2: What is the probability of drawing a king from a deck of cards? 4/52 or 1/13 Example 3: What is the probability of drawing a queen of hearts from as deck of cards?

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probability of an event or P(event) is number of favorable outcomes total number of possible outcomes Example 1: Sarah rolls two 6-sided numbered cubes. What is the probability that the two numbers added together will equal 5? 4/36 = 1/9 Simple Probability Example 2: What is the probability of drawing a king from a deck of cards? 4/52 or 1/13 Example 3: What is the probability of drawing a queen of hearts from as deck of cards? 1/52

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Example 1: Sarah rolls two 6-sided numbered cubes. What is the probability that the two numbers added together will equal 5? Simple Probability Example 2: What is the probability of drawing a king from a deck of cards? Example 3: What is the probability of drawing a queen of hearts from as deck of cards?

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Compound Probability The probability of two independent events If an event is independent, it does not affect the outcome of other events.

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“OR” P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Example: When you flip a fair coin and roll a number cube, what is the P(head or 4)? P(head or 4) = ½ + 1/6 = 3/6 + 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3

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Example: Alfred is going to the Lakeshore Animal Shelter to pick a new pet. Today, the shelter has 8 dogs, 7 cats, and 5 rabbits available for adoption. If Alfred randomly picks an animal to adopt, what is the probability that the animal would be a cat or a dog? 8/20 + 7/20 = 15/20 = 3/4

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“And” P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) Example: When you flip a fair coin and roll a number cube, what is the P(head and 4)? P(head, 4) = ½ x 1/6 = 1/12

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Practice 1.P(heads, hearts) = 13/104 2.P(tails, four) = 4/104

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