1. Climate change and Its Impacts on the Pacific Northwest University of Washington Program on Climate Change

2. Part I Global Climate Change

3. Earth’s Energy Balance and Greenhouse Gases Source: NASA, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Greenhouse gases: H 2 O, O 3, CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, halocarbons

4. Sources of US anthropogenic GHGs Source: U.S. EPA 2005 by gasby sector

5. How cars generate CO 2 Source: Murray ca. 2005

6. CO 2 and temperature, 420,000 BP to present Source: various, assembled by Davies 2000 CO 2 concentration, ppm Temperature difference from today CO 2 concentration Temperature Difference °C Years BP

7. CO 2 1958 to present

8. Future climate change Source: IPCC 2001 global economic development regional economic stratification global environmental consciousness regional environmental consciousness and economies 1992 projection

9. Risks of future climate change Source: IPCC 2001 Possible threats: Ecosystem change Flooding of coastal communities Spread of diseases Increase of extreme weather events

10. Part II Pacific Northwest Impacts

11. Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100 Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005 Year Degrees F

12. Retreat of the South Cascades glacier 1928 2000 Source: USGS ca. 2005

13. Effect on modeled Snake River streamflow Source: Mote ca. 2005 increased winter flows an earlier peak decreased spring/ summer flows

14. Trends in actual streamflows, 1948-2002 March June Source: Stewart, Cayan & Dettinger 2004

15. Effect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industry Source: Mote ca. 2005 days of operation per year current climate 2040’s (two different models) 2020’s (two different models) 24 cm snow threshold 50 cm 80 cm

16. Effects on salmonid life-cycle Source: Mote ca. 2005 winter flooding low summer streamflow; higher temp. changing estuary conditions (prey, predators, competitors) possible effects still unknown

17. Vegetation carbon in 2070-2100 Source: Nielson ca. 2005

18. Other effects Likely: less frequent extreme cold events coastal erosion and landslides Possible: increased precipitation intensity Changes in El Niño frequency, intensity or local effects Changes in fogginess, wind storms Source: Mote ca. 2005

19. Part III Taking Action

20. Why a Northwesterner needs to think differently Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004 U.S. GHGsWashington GHGs

21. Two venues for action Source: Hammerschlag ca. 2005 Vote Financially support concerned organizations - Climate Solutions - Northwest Energy Coalition Volunteer for concerned organizations - Door-to-door education - Legislative lobbying POLICY REFORM Drive less - Carpool or use transit - Walk or bicycle - Combine errands - Telecommute Drive a fuel-efficient car Reduce home energy use - CFLs - Energy Star appliances - Heat room-by-room - Minimize summer A/C Purchase GHG offsets PERSONAL GHG CUTS

22. The End. University of Washington Program on Climate Change

23. annexes 1.Keeping Pacific Northwest electricity low-GHG 2.CH 4 1000 to Present

24. Keeping Pacific Northwest electricity low-GHG Source: Lazarus, Hippel & Bernow 2002

25. CH 4 1000 to present Source: Mote ca. 2005