1. Climate and Marine Protected Areas IMPACT Project Catherine Marzin 1, Karsten Shein 2, Tess Brandon 3, Doug Pirhalla 4, Brian Keller 1, Jim Hendee 5 (1) NOS/ONMS; (2) NESDIS/NCDC; (3) NESDIS/NODC; (4) NOS/NCCOS; (5) OAR/AOML Climate and MPA workshop 11-13 January, 2010 AOML, Miami, FL

2. 2 of 16 Climate Change as Threat Continued global warming will … – Bleach corals – Favor invasive species – Force geographic shifts in species populations – Contribute to mass mortality episodes – Impact human lives and property

3. Assessments and planning USGCRP Climate Change Impacts on the United States: Coastal and Marine Resources – “Marine populations and ecosystems have been highly responsive to climate variability.” White House Ocean Policy Task Force: Interim Framework for Effective Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (Jan 2010) – “Places science-based information at the heart of decision making.” 3 of 16

4. USGCRP: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change on Coastal Areas and Marine Resources (2001)

5. 5 of 16 What factors are involved? Thermal stress Acidification Salinity Mechanical stress Opacity – Sedimentation – Biomass – turbidity Pollutants – Pathogens – Nutrients – Contaminants Invasive species All can be related to climate and climate change … Image credit: U. MD Ctr. for Environmental Sci. Horn Pt. Lab

6. 6 of 16 How might climate affect these factors? Temperature Precipitation Radiation Wind Cloudiness Pressure Trace Gases Other ?

7. But “How” In order to understand the future, we must first understand the past. Baseline climatologies Quantification of changes in space and time So what? - If we know climate is changing – what can we do? Short term (monitoring, stress-reduction) Long term (mitigation, adaptation, marine spatial planning) 7 of 16

8. 8 of 16 Tropical Cyclones Can have significant impact on near-shore marine ecosystems. Systematic changes in path, intensity and timing are important to identify and understand. Are certain areas seeing increased or decreased vulnerability to storm strikes? A brief example … Will earlier or later storms have greater impact on unsuspecting ecosystems?

9. 9 of 16 Hurricane Tracks near the FKNMS (1998-2008) Thanks to J. Schittone (ONMS) for the graphic.

10. 10 of 16 Atlantic/Caribbean TC Season

11. A matter of scale Most climate change information is based on coarse- resolution aggregations. Localized variations and influences may be far different. To address these local-scale behaviors we must develop climate resources at these finer scales.

12. South Florida Protected Areas Rookery Bay NERR 12 of 16

13. Met stations around the FKNMS 13 of 16 Hourly data Daily data Monthly data

14. 14 of 16 Integrated Marine Protected Area Climate Tool (IMPACT) – Climate reference baseline Normals, extremes, ranges, probabilities, etc. Context of biological resources – Better address climate and climate change impacts – Determine spatial and temporal variability of favorable and unfavorable climatic conditions. – Understand ecological response to climate change – Climate tool for MPA managers Work to develop climatologies of marine protected areas. Towering cumulus over FKNMS

15. Status to date Team building Preliminary data discussions – Needs and inventory SARP grant application This workshop 15 of 16

16. Thank You Karsten Shein NOAA National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Ave Asheville, NC 28801 828.271.4223 Karsten.Shein@noaa.gov Catherine Marzin NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries Program 1305 East West Hwy SSMC4 Silver Spring, MD 20910 301-713-3125 x-257 Catherine.Marzin@noaa.gov