1. SEEM Calibration for Manufactured Housing Regional Technical Forum December 13, 2011 Analysis Performed ByAdam Hadley Cursory Reviews ByTom Eckman, Ben Larson, and David Baylon Presentation ByAdam Hadley

2. Background, Goals, & Recommendation Manufactured Home Measures with SEEM-estimated UES’s – Weatherization – New Construction – Heat Pumps Goal: Calibrate SEEM94 model input assumptions to real- world billing data, per section 3.1.3.2 Model Calibration of the RTF’s Guidelines Recommendations for Calibration – Set SEEM inputs for heating temperature setpoints to match MAP findings 69.4 deg F daytime 61.6 deg F night time (9 hour setback) 2

3. RTF Guidelines 3.1.3.2 Model Calibration In most cases, calibrated engineering procedures will involve at least one stage of modeling in which baseline and efficient case energy consumption are estimated for the measure-affected end use. For example, the heating load for single family homes is estimated as part of the derivation of UES for ductless heat pump conversion. A simulation model is used to derive the heating end use for typical homes in different climate zones. Ideally, the model would be calibrated to measured heating end use for a sample of homes. If end use data are not available, the model should at least be calibrated to metered total use for the sample. Calibration should also be performed for samples that have adopted the measure, i.e., the efficient case. For measures that affect new buildings the calibration may be limited to the efficient case or to comparable buildings of recent vintage. 3

4. Process 1.Use house and operation characteristics of available billing study data – Note: The RTF’s three prototypes are modeled in SEEM and weighted to match billing data house floor area. 2.Compare SEEM94 output to billing study results 3.Adjust input parameters only as appropriate – For example, cannot adjust insulation levels if they were definitively provided in the billings study. – Planned to adjust heating setpoint (within reason). 4.Compare again 4

5. Available Studies NEEM 2006 – Baylon, David, et.al. "Summary of 2006 NEEM Manufactured Homes: Field Data and Billing Analysis." March 2009 Heat Pump Study 2005 – Baylon, David, et.al. "Analysis of Heat Pump Installation Practices and Performance." December 2005 MAP 1995 – Baylon, David, et. al. "Manufactured Home Acquisition Program: Analysis of Program Impacts Final Report." August 3, 1995. RCDP (manufactured homes) – Multiple reports (Yes, Baylon was involved again) 5

6. Available Data (more details) 6 For even more details, please refer to calibration workbook

7. Results 7

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9. RTF Decision? 9 Discussion: Lots of scatter in the results, but close enough (?) Proposed Motion: Accept the use of SEEM 94 as calibrated for space heat energy consumption in manufactured homes when using the RTF’s prototypes and a thermostat setting of 69.4°F with 61.6°F 9-hour night setback (independent of heating system type).