1. COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC POTENTIALS of NON-FOOD OPTIONS International Food Security Impacts of European Non-Food Options Chris Llull a, Uwe A. Schneider a,b, Petr Havlik b, Michael Obersteiner b, Ingo Huck a, Bruno Dorin c, Timm Sauer a Erwin Schmid d a Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Germany b International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria c French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), France d University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria

2. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 2 Increasing concerns about the sustainability of bioenergy. Impact of bioenergy on the food system. In a context of population, economic growth and resource scarcity. Introduction

3. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 3 Regional Resolution

4. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 4 POPULATION GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH LAND SUPPLY WATER SUPPLY FOOD DEMAND BIOENERGY TECHNICAL PROGRESS CO2 TAX DEFORESTATION q p CS PS p* q* D S Exogenous Parameters

5. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 5 Food Price Food Trade Food Consumption Food Composition Food Security Main Output

6. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 6 Population growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030 Economic growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030 Bioenergy: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 10% of total energy demand by 2030 Technical progress: 20% increase in productivity Environmental policies: Carbon taxes 100 $ / ton Deforestation: allowed or not allowed Scenarios

7. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 7

8. 8

9. 9

10. 10

11. 11

12. 12 GLOBAL LEVEL FOOD PRICE

13. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 13

14. 14

15. 15

16. 16

17. 17

18. 18 GLOBAL LEVEL FOOD CONSUMPTION

19. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 19

20. 20 bioenergy yield taxTax & yield

21. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 21 bioenergy yield

22. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 22 GLOBAL LEVEL FOOD COMPOSITION

23. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 23

24. 24 bioenergy yield tax Tax & yield

25. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 25 bioenergy yield tax Tax & yield

26. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 26 REGIONAL LEVEL FOOD TRADE

27. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 27

28. 28

29. 29 REGIONAL LEVEL FOOD CONSUMPTION

30. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 30

31. 31

32. 32 REGIONAL LEVEL FOOD COMPOSITION

33. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 33

34. 34

35. 35 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY

36. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 36

37. 37

38. 38 bioenergy yield tax Tax & yield

39. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 39 bioenergy yield

40. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 40

41. 41 All regions are affected Food consumption and food composition are affected Non linear effects Bioenergy emphasizes the degradation of the nutritional situation in Sub-Saharan Africa Technical progress overcomes the negative impact on both food consumption and food composition only if deforestation is allowed. Overview of the Results

42. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 42 A competitive market is assumed. Institutional or infrastructure related developments are ignored overestimation No endogenous revenue from the agricultural sector due to increasing food prices and production of bioenergy underestimation Major Limitations

43. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 43 Conclusion NON-FOOD USE DEFORESTATIONFOOD SECURITY The model can deliver possible combination of the different outputs (production frontiers) Determining the optimal development pathway requires to define priorities based on social value of the competing outputs

44. ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 2008 44 Thank you