1. Building Industry Association Economic Update Rick Harper, Ph.D. UWF Office of Economic Development and Engagement January 12, 2012

2. Economic Drivers in the National Picture Tepid economic growth (New normal, debt overhang) Job weakness continues (Hollowing out of middle class) Housing market weak (Need formation of new households) Monetary policy (Does Fed-bashing solve fiscal problems?) Fiscal policy (short run vs. long term) Energy prices / inflation (oil $100+, gold, commodity inflation) Dollar / inflation ($ sideways, inflation expectations anchored) Eurozone problems (austerity paralysis, recession) Growth moderates elsewhere (SE Asia good, BRICs w/upside)

3. National Outlook 2012: Housing purchase prices more affordable Economic activity slightly above pre-recession levels Economic growth trajectory suffering from debt overhang Unemployment flat, well above 8% by election time Residential real estate market recovery awaits economic recovery 10 year Treasury yield at historic low, yield wobbles with continued economic uncertainty, bond market boom over Large banks prosper, community banks slowly improve Budget crisis continues until economy resumes strong growth Health care cost trajectory unsustainable

13. Economic Base for 16 County Tallahassee – Pensacola region

20. Building Industry Association Economic Update Questions? Rick Harper, Ph.D. UWF Office of Economic Development and Engagement January 12, 2012