1. Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa C. Sere and M. Herrero The Role of Livestock for ACP countries: challenges and opportunities ahead Brussels Development Briefings - 1st July, 2009 Brussels, Belgium

2. –Livestock systems occupy 45% or the global land area (Reid et al 2008) –Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008) –Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999) –Livestock key as a risk reduction strategy for vulnerable communities (Freeman et al 2007) –Important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops in smallholder systems (at least 60% of the global cropping area receives manure applications – Herrero et al 2008a) Livestock and livelihoods (1)

3. –Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008) –Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber –Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World –. Livestock and livelihoods (3) Herrero et al 2008a

4. At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock ILRI 2009

5. Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2030) Farming system Population in 2000 (1000 of people) Population in 2030 (1000 of people) (Agro-)Pastoral80,160140,820 Mixed Extensive258,680484,750 Mixed Potentially Intensify168,150327,070 Other109,180190,310 Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa will nearly double to 2030!! Herrero et al 2009

6. Consumption of livestock products in the developing world is projected to increase even faster IAASTD 2007

7. Cereal yields Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank 2007

8. Cereals production in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000) Herrero et al 2009

9. Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countries Catching up Rates lower than those of population growth Herrero et al 2009

10. …but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates…. Increased consumption Increased incomes …but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc) Some industrialisation…. Herrero et al 2009

12. Dependence on green and blue water 2000 80% of agricultural production comes from rainfed areas, significant regional variations exist – CA 2007

13. Small holder/ Dairy cattle Hub/ Local org. Milk collection Milk processing/ marketing Breeding services Vaccinations Deworming Disease Investigation Veterinary services Breed selection Superior germplasm Performance evaluation Lab services Input supply Paravet Veterinarian Seeds Fertilizers Feed/Minerals Micro-finance Crop residues Fodder production Pasture development Water conservation/ supply Fodder producers / Traders Plant breeders Soil scientists Small Scale Dairy Existing value chain Proposed value chain ILRI Wider Replication National/ Regional Players Private Entrepreneurs Training / Capacity building Monitoring / Evaluation Consumer Hedge 2009

14. Mean CC impacts on yields With CO 2 fertilizationWithout CO 2 fertilization % Calorie-based national mean change in crop productivity [%] 2050s compared to 1990s n=15; 3SRES, 5GCM PIK, Müller et al., preliminary results

15. Conclusions Mixed crop-livestock systems will continue to be the backbone of agriculture and livestock production in Sub Saharan Africa Domestic and regional markets – essential Improved market access, competitiveness, reduction of transactions costs necessary Significant room for intensification, particularly in areas of medium agricultural potential More livestock due to climate change?