1. An Illustration Using the RSVP Stephen D. Hart, PhD

2. Rationale  The RSVP is a new set of structured professional judgment (SPJ) guidelines designed to facilitate comprehensive, treatment-oriented sexual violence risk assessments  It builds on other SPJ guidelines, such as the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20)

3. Administration Step 1 Case information Step 2 Presence of risk factors Step 3 Relevance of risk factors Step 4 Scenarios of sexual violence Step 5 Management strategies Step 6 Conclusory opinions

4. Step 4 Always consider past behavior Consider possible development or evolution of offense behavior

5. Basic Scenarios Repeat Consider all past violence, not just most recent Twist Change in motivation, victimology, behavioral topography Escalation Including lethal or “worst case” Improvement Including desistence or “best case”

6. Step 5 Identify and target relevant risk factors Specify management strategies and tactics

7. Strategies Monitoring Surveillance or repeated assessment Supervision Imposition of controls or restriction of freedoms Treatment Rehabilitation, including further assessment Victim Safety Planning Enhancement of security resources for identifiable targets

8. Evaluative Research

9. Interrater Reliability  Interrater reliability of presence and relevance ratings for individual risk factors is good to excellent  There is no difference in reliability for ratings of presence and relevance of individual risk factors  Interrater reliability of domain and overall ratings is good to excellent  Interrater reliability of summary judgments is excellent

10. Concurrent Validity  Concurrent validity with respect to SPJs and ARAIs is good  Most strongly related to SVR-20 and SORAG, likely due to content overlap  The common variance among instruments can be accounted for in large part by psychopathy  Various RSVP summary judgments have different concurrent validities  Case prioritization ratings are more strongly related to actuarial scores than are other ratings

11. Predictive Validity  Sexual violence risk assessments made using the RSVP have moderate predictive validity  Equivalent to that of SVR-20, ARAIs  Similar to SPJs and ARAIs in past research

12. Future Research

13. Scenarios  How do evaluators develop scenarios?  Talk-aloud analysis to examine case information, risk factors, and implicit theories used by evaluators  What is the nature of the scenarios generated?  Content analysis to examine numbers, details, distinctiveness  What is the interrater reliability of scenarios of future sexual violence?  Evaluate similarity of scenarios between raters/within cases versus between raters/between cases

14. Management Strategies  How do evaluators develop plans?  Talk-aloud analysis to examine case information, risk factors, and implicit theories used by evaluators  What is the nature of the plans generated?  Content analysis to examine numbers, details, distinctiveness  What is the interrater reliability of strategies?  Evaluate similarity of plans between raters/within cases versus between raters/between cases

15. Efficacy  Do scenarios and plans influence improve case management?  RCT to evaluate improvements in service delivery and violence prevention

16. Correspondence  Stephen D. Hart, PhD Psychology Department Simon Fraser University 8888 University Drive Burnaby, BC Canada V5A 1S6 E-mail: hart@sfu.ca