1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 January 13, 2015

2. Class Information and News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 –Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki SiteClass MediaWiki Site –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

3. Required Reading and Response Assignment on CTools Site –Dilling and Lemos: Usable ScienceDilling and Lemos: Usable Science

4. Resources and Recommended Reading Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html –And in particular two subsections Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm –Note specific assignment on Ctools site Rood.mp4 Introductory LectureIntroductory Lecture –https://umich.box.com/s/4vzq7txa60ax7gr19k4dhttps://umich.box.com/s/4vzq7txa60ax7gr19k4d

5. Outline: Class 2, Winter 2015 A (very) Little History and the Conclusion Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem What is (and is not) “science?” –The scientific method applied to climate Relation to Energy, Population, Consumption Response Framework

6. Some history (see Weart, AIP)Weart, AIP The first calculations of the ability of water vapor and carbon dioxide to warm the Earth’s surface are often attributed to Fourier (1768-1830). (I will call this the greenhouse effect.) Significant improvements to the quantification of the warming due to greenhouse gases is attributed to Tyndall (1820-1893) Arrhenius in the late 1800s made estimates of the impact of doubled carbon dioxide

7. Starting point: Scientific foundation (1) The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on fundamental principles of the conservation of energy, momentum, and mass. The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.

8. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty –The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface.

9. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty –The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because of the continued addition into the atmosphere of gases that hold heat close to the surface. –Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. –Sea level will rise. –The weather will change.

10. Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem

11. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas The Economist on 400 ppm

12. The yearly cycle of CO 2

13. Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) IPCC 2001

14. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

15. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006 1951-1980 base period

16. IPCC 2013: Observed Temperature

17. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years

18. Quick Summary: IPCC(2013)

19. IPCC (2007) projections for the next 100 years Note: From one IPCC assessment to the next, there is no fundamental change in sign and range.

20. That’s a glimpse into climate change We’ve seen this carbon dioxide curve, with carbon dioxide increasing. I’ve told you that carbon dioxide holds heat close to the surface. I showed curves and graphs of global averaged surface temperature, past, present, and future. Showed sea level and snow melt.

21. What parameters/events do we care about? Temperature Water –Precipitation –Evaporation –Humidity Air Composition –Air quality –Aerosols –Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

22. What is (and is not) “science?” The Scientific Method

23. Scientific investigation of climate change What is scientific investigation? –Scientific methodScientific method How do we get started?

24. What is science, the scientific method? Elements of the scientific method –Observations of some phenomenon –Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of suppositions, followed by hypotheses –In principle, hypotheses are testable: Experiments: cause and effect Prediction instead of experiments? –Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis. Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? –Development of tests, experiments that challenge the hypotheses and predictions. Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is constructed.

25. What is science, the scientific method? Science is a process of investigation –The results of scientific investigation are the generation of Knowledge within a prescribed levels of constraints Uncertainty: How sure are we about that knowledge? –Science does not generate a systematic exposition of facts Facts are, perhaps knowledge, whose uncertainty is so low, that we feel certain. Theories develop out of tested hypotheses. –Theory is NOT conjecture –Theory is subject to change –There is constant challenge and testing –Science requires validation Requires that hypotheses and theories are testable Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests.

26. What is science, the scientific method? Science is a process of investigation –Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests. –Do you feel that scientific investigation of the climate is “transparent?” –Do you feel that independent investigators affirm basic conclusions?

27. Science, Scientific Method Scientists DO impart their personalities and beliefs onto their results –But the fact that it is independently testable, ultimately, challenges this potential prejudice.

28. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY PREDICTION

29. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSPROCESSES MODELING

30. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY EXPERIMENT

31. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY EXPERIMENT Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary Problem Solving Unification Integration (perhaps not unique)

32. What is science, the scientific method? We always have these attributes in the scientific method –Observations of some phenomenon / phenomena –Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? How do we affect “control?” What is “control?” We are seeking cause and effect. –Validation, can I predict the behavior? –Can I describe this well enough for someone else to repeat it?

33. Relation to Energy, Population, Consumption

34. Climate Change Relationships We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGEENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas. The vast majority of or energy comes from burning fossil fuels.

35. Climate Change Relationships Consumption // Population // Energy CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION SOCIETAL SUCCESS

36. Societal Success and Energy Societal Success Consumption High Low High This is what we know.

37. Energy and Economic Success The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005) What countries are missing from this figure? What has changed since 2005?

38. Response Framework

39. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO 2 we put in the atmosphere. Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO 2 It’s not an either / or argument.

40. Summary Class 2, Winter 2015 Greenhouse effect, importance of water and carbon dioxide to Earth’s climate known more than 200 years Climate Change / Global Warming as a societal issue is primarily motivated by release of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Warming and consequences have been observed and more is on the way.

41. Summary Class 2, Winter 2015 Scientific investigation is observation based, and relies on evaluation of testable hypotheses. –Generates knowledge and associated uncertainty

42. Summary Class 2, Winter 2015 Climate change / global warming follows from use of fossil fuels as energy and the consumption of energy to improve standard of living –Historically, relatively small portion of population –Future, larger portion of population seeking improved standard of living The framework for responding to global warming is –Mitigation: don’t do the things that cause warming –Adaptation: respond to warming

43. Thanks All of this will be discussed in more detail during the course.