1. World Bank Wednesday April 29, 2009 Paul E. Peterson - Discussant Henry Lee Shattuck Professor of Government, Harvard University Director Harvard Program on Education Policy and Governance

2. Heterogeneity in School Sector Effects on Elementary Student Performance Paul E. Peterson & Elena Llaudet Harvard University 2. Effects of Public and Private Schools on Elementary School Students

3. Data from Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey - Kindergarten Class of 1998-9 (ECLS-K), Data from Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey - Kindergarten Class of 1998-9 (ECLS-K), the first longitudinal study that attempts to track the elementary school experience of a nationally representative sample of students the first longitudinal study that attempts to track the elementary school experience of a nationally representative sample of students Track students from K to 5 th grade Track students from K to 5 th grade

4. Method Propensity score matching of public and private students Propensity score matching of public and private students Imputation of missing variables. Imputation of missing variables. Fifth grade outcomes, controlling for first grade performance and numerous background characteristics. Fifth grade outcomes, controlling for first grade performance and numerous background characteristics.

5. Private Sector 11.6 percent of all students (6 million) 11.6 percent of all students (6 million) Distribution Distribution Catholic: 47 % Catholic: 47 % Evangelical Protestant: 15 Evangelical Protestant: 15 Lutheran: 4 Lutheran: 4 Other Religious 16 Other Religious 16 Nonsectarian 17 Nonsectarian 17

6. Average Expenditure per Pupil Public School$9,929 Public School$9,929 Private School$5,634 Private School$5,634 Average Teacher Salaries Public Schoolabout $43,000 Public Schoolabout $43,000 Private Schoolless than $30,000 Private Schoolless than $30,000 In 2003, according to information reported by U.S. Department of Education (2005b) In 2000, according to information reported by U.S. Department of Education (2005b)

7. Findings Overall, private school advantage in reading (0.05), not in math Overall, private school advantage in reading (0.05), not in math Larger private school advantage in reading for low SES, low initial ability students (0.23 s. d.) Larger private school advantage in reading for low SES, low initial ability students (0.23 s. d.) (One third of a years worth of learning, approximately) (One third of a years worth of learning, approximately) Private school advantage in reading for minority students (0.18 s. d.) Private school advantage in reading for minority students (0.18 s. d.)

8. Findings (cont.) Public school advantage in math for high SES, high initial ability students (0.13) Public school advantage in math for high SES, high initial ability students (0.13) Public school advantage in math for white and Asian students (0.12) Public school advantage in math for white and Asian students (0.12)

9. Charter school effectiveness National observational studies—national sample, but few if any control variables do not track student gains. Randomized field trials excellent quality, few unrepresentative schools excellent quality, few unrepresentative schools Student fixed effects reasonable quality, only certain places reasonable quality, only certain places

11. Estimated Test Score Effect of Attending New York City’s Charter Schools, Per Year of Attendance, on Average student MathReading malefemalemalefemale.09.09.03.05 MathReading blackHispanicblackHispanic.09.08.04.03

12. Less Positive Evidence from North Carolina Age of School

13. School choice research can’t tell us what we really want to know: What happens in the long run, after parents have had choice for many years and schools systems have evolved in response to parental choice.

14. But, now, we have research that tells us exactly that: 4. Long-Term Effects of School Choice: Data from 29 Countries Study by Martin R. West and Ludger Woessmann

15. Comes from 29 countries. Some have lots of parental choice, some a little Student performance in math, science and reading at age 15 is measured by the PISA 2003, collected by the Organization of Economic Co- operation and Development (OECD), an official international agency.

16. Do countries that have more school choice have higher student performance? School choice is measured by the percentage of students attending private schools.

17. Private Share of School Enrollment A LOT SOME A LITTLE / NONE Country Share (%) Country Country Netherlands77Mexico16Italy5 Belgium69Luxembourg14 New Zealand 5 Ireland61 Slovak Republic 12Greece4 Korea56Hungary11Sweden4 Australia38Austria8Turkey3 Spain38Germany8Norway1 Japan27Canada7Poland1 Denmark22 Czech Republic 7Iceland0 Finland7 Portugal6 Switzerland6 United Kingdom 6 United States 6

18. Math Test Scores WELL ABOVE AVERAGEBELOW CountryScoreCountryScoreCountryScore Finland544Australia524 Slovak Republic 499 Korea541 New Zealand 524Norway495 Netherlands538 Czech Republic 516Luxembourg493 Japan534Iceland515Hungary490 Canada533Denmark514Poland490 Belgium529Sweden510Spain486 Switzerland526 United Kingdom 508 United States 483 Austria505Portugal466 Ireland503Italy466 Germany503Greece445 Turkey424 Mexico385

19. Government Funding of Private Schools* More than 80% 50 to 79 % Less than 50% CountryPercentageCountryPercentageCountryPercentage Sweden99Germany78Ireland45 Finland98Hungary78Poland35 Netherlands96Denmark76Japan33 Slovak Republic 94Spain67Switzerland22 Iceland90Portugal64 New Zealand 15 Luxembourg89 Czech Republic 63Italy14 Norway88Korea55U.K.13 Belgium85Canada54 United States 2 Mexico1 Greece0 Turkey0 *Note: Data unavailable for Australia and Austria

20. Impact of Country’s Private Share on…

21. The effect of a 10-percentage-point increase in the share of enrollment in private school is equivalent to 41 percent of a year’s worth of learning in high school.

22. Impact of Country’s Private Share on Math Scores of Students in Public School is 66 points.

23. Impact of Country’s Private Share on Per Pupil Expenditure is to reduce it by 5.6 percent.