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196119711981199120012011 IFS-(Var)EPS re-forecasts Avaialbility of VarEPS Reorecasts (% Members, started once every Week) Day0Day+5Day+10Day+30Day+90 IFS-(Var)EPS.

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Presentation on theme: "196119711981199120012011 IFS-(Var)EPS re-forecasts Avaialbility of VarEPS Reorecasts (% Members, started once every Week) Day0Day+5Day+10Day+30Day+90 IFS-(Var)EPS."— Presentation transcript:

1 IFS-(Var)EPS re-forecasts Avaialbility of VarEPS Reorecasts (% Members, started once every Week) Day0Day+5Day+10Day+30Day+90 IFS-(Var)EPS Medium-to-extended range forecast of available water resources with PREVAH Estimation of deviation from climatological mean (focus on water scarcity and low-flows) Observed climatology Towards Seasonal Forecasts

2 Skill of ECMWF VarEPS monthly reforecasts Kein Skill nach 10 Tagen Wie verifizieren (mehr)tägliche Abflussprognosen?

3 runoff lead-time threshold severity duration duration= length of longest forecast period below MMR severity= cumulative runoff deficit w.r.t. MMR Magnitude= severity/duration Calculated for each monthly forecast (weekly issued, ), 5 members and according observations Results are ensemble forecasts of indices & verification Drought Indices Mean monthly runoff MMR

4 Low-Flow Duration

5 Low-Flow Severity

6 Low-Flow Magnitude


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