1. SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011 Dust forecast model intercomparison: Case study of the Dust Cloud of April 2011 N. Huneeus and M. Schulz Proposal for a joint study in the framework of the SDS-NAMEE node

2. SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011 Rationale Examine model performance to simulate dust events affecting Europe and identify whether this is due to vertical profile, optics, size distribution, removal fluxes, wind fields or other model characteristics or processes. Assess the models capacity to predict the approach of a dust event affecting Europe. Examine how this performance varies for different forecast time steps. Dust event of April 2011 was selected for this study.

3. SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011 Dust event of April 2011

4. SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011 Dust event of April 2011 Additional observations: Enric Terradellas Surface concentration (PM10): EMEP stations LIDAR profiles (e.g. EARLINET, CALIOP) Satellite products (AOD): e.g. MODIS, MISR

5. SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011 Dust models MACC-ECMWF (ECMWF) INCA-LMDZ (LSCE-IPSL) Unified Model (MetOffice) DREAM (BSC, Barcelona) CHIMERE (LMD-IPSL) NAAPS (NRL) P. Knippertz and S. Fiedler (U. Leeds) will be collaborating in the analysis and intercomparison of model emissions J.-J. Morcrette M. Schulz D. Walters J. Baldasano L. Menut J. Reid NMMB-BSC-Dust C. Pérez

6. SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011 Variables considered (3 hourly) 2D Total AOD@550nm 2D Dust AOD, total and fine mode (<1um) or per bin 3D aerosol and dust extinction @550nm Wind at 10m (zonal and meridional) [m/s] 3D wind field [m/s] 2D Surface dust concentration, total and fine mode or per bin. [g/m 3 ] 2D Total aerosol load [kg/m 2 ] 3D Dust mixing ratio for all dust tracers in model [kg/kg] (accompanied by ascii readme file on how to recompute aerosol size) 2D Emission fluxes, both total and per bin/mode [kg/m 2 /s] 2D Removal fluxes (wet & dry), both total and per bin/mode [kg/m 2 /s] Temperature, Relative humidity and Pressure fields at surface, 850 and 500 hPa Soil characteristics IMPORTANT: Each group has to send the model fields following AeroCom phase II convention on naming of the variables and files

7. SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011 Thank you!

8. SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011 Is there an appropriate score? Skill scores are widely used in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) community and Regional Air quality E.g.: Contingency tables Scores=F(a,b,c,d) More traditional metrics such as Correlation, Bias, root mean square error, their normalized versions, etc

9. SDS-WAS Regional Steering Group meeting 25-26 February 2011