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Reserving For Mortgage Insurance and Title Insurance in a Stressed Real Estate Market Joseph L. Petrelli, ACAS, MAAA, FCA President Demotech, Inc.

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Presentation on theme: "Reserving For Mortgage Insurance and Title Insurance in a Stressed Real Estate Market Joseph L. Petrelli, ACAS, MAAA, FCA President Demotech, Inc."— Presentation transcript:

1 Reserving For Mortgage Insurance and Title Insurance in a Stressed Real Estate Market Joseph L. Petrelli, ACAS, MAAA, FCA President Demotech, Inc.

2 Average Commitment Rate On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Source: freddiemac.com – through June 2008 YearRateYearRateYearRate 19738.04198512.4319977.60 19749.19198610.1919986.94 19759.05198710.2119997.44 19768.87198810.3420008.05 19778.85198910.3220016.97 19789.64199010.1320026.54 197911.2019919.2520035.83 198013.7419928.3920045.84 198116.6319937.3120055.87 198216.0419948.3820066.41 198313.2419957.9320076.34 198413.8819967.812008*5.99

3 Source: freddiemac.com - through June 2008 Average Commitment Rate On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages

4 Refinance Percentage of Mortgage Applications Source: freddiemac.com - through May 2008 YearPercentYearPercent 198731199852 198821199929 198924200024 199026200157 199145200259 199252200365 199358200446 199427200544 199522200643 199630200741 1997312008*50

5 Source: freddiemac.com - through May 2008 Refinance Percentage of Mortgage Applications

6 Median Sales Price of Existing Single- Family Homes Source: realestateabc.com & realtor.org - through May 2008 YearPriceYearPriceYearPrice 1968$20,1001982$67,8001996$115,800 1969$21,3001983$70,3001997$121,800 1970$23,0001984$72,4001998$128,400 1971$24,8001985$75,5001999$133,300 1972$26,7001986$80,3002000$139,000 1973$28,9001987$85,6002001$147,800 1974$32,0001988$89,3002002$156,200 1975$35,3001989$89,5002003$169,500 1976$38,1001990$92,0002004$195,200 1977$42,9001991$97,1002005$219,000 1978$48,7001992$99,7002006$221,900 1979$55,7001993$103,1002007$217,900 1980$62,2001994$107,2002008Q1$196,300 1981$66,4001995$110,5002008Q2*$208,600

7 Source: realestateabc.com & realtor.org - through May 2008 Median Sales Price of Existing Single- Family Homes

8 Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Source: allcountries.org & mortgagebankers.org YearDelinquencyForeclosureYearDelinquencyForeclosureYearDelinquencyForeclosure 19703.10.319835.60.819964.31.0 19713.50.519845.70.919974.31.1 19723.70.519855.81.019984.41.1 19734.1N/A19865.61.219994.11.1 19744.20.519875.01.320004.41.2 19754.40.419884.81.220015.11.5 19764.60.419894.81.020025.11.5 19774.50.419904.70.920034.71.3 19784.60.419915.01.020044.51.2 19794.60.419924.61.020054.51.0 19805.00.519934.21.020065.01.2 19815.30.519944.10.920075.82.0 19825.50.819954.30.92008Q16.42.5

9 Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Source: allcountries.org & mortgagebankers.org

10 Title Insurance Direct Premiums Written Source: Demotech, Inc. Form 9 Database YearDirect Premiums Written 1993$5,318,073,165 1994$5,352,518,236 1995$4,285,437,495 1996$5,047,272,210 1997$5,529,108,755 1998$7,532,339,639 1999$8,109,007,959 2000$7,280,711,376 2001$9,120,633,386 2002$11,981,083,866 2003$15,695,909,559 2004$15,534,839,950 2005$16,835,154,282 2006$16,435,636,904 2007$14,061,278,822

11 Title Insurance Direct Premiums Written ($Billions) Source: Demotech, Inc. Form 9 Database

12 Source: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Information derived from a Highline Data product (Companies as of 7/16/08). Private Mortgage Insurance Direct Premiums Written YearDirect Premiums Written 2001$4,129,925,000 2002$4,528,933,000 2003$4,979,164,000 2004$5,030,963,000 2005$5,190,562,000 2006$5,413,845,000 2007$6,152,079,536

13 Private Mortgage Insurance Direct Premiums Written ($Billions) Source: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Information derived from a Highline Data product (Companies as of 7/16/08).


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