1. Software Engineering Experimentation Ways to Acquire Knowledge Part B Measuring and Science Jeff Offutt http://www.cs.gmu.edu/~offutt/

2. © Jeff Offutt, 2007-20122 Measuring and Science When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it – Lord Kelvin, 1889 http://zapatopi.net/kelvin/quotes.html

3. © Jeff Offutt, 2007-20123 What is a Scientific Test The Budweiser Test –In a bar, people who liked another brand best were given a “live” challenge – which beer is better? –Results? 50% chose Budweiser over their favorite beer!!!50% chose Budweiser over their favorite beer!!! –Conclusion: Budweiser is better !!! Hmmm … something’s fishy … 50% chose Budweiser over their favorite beer!!!

4. © Jeff Offutt, 2007-20124 Scientific Test Test: Live TV, in a bar, subjects already drinking, lots of noise and confusion Subjects wouldn’t be able to tell any difference, so we should expect each beer to be chosen … Half the time! There are three kinds of lies … Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

5. © Jeff Offutt, 2007-20125 Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics Guns in the home found to increase risk of death People who keep guns at home nearly triple their chances of being murdered, usually by friends or relatives, but fail to protect themselves from intruders The article goes on to describe how the study was conducted, summarizes aspects of the population cross sections and conclusions of the study, and concludes with a refutation by a representative of the NRA Paul Blackman, research coordinator at the National Rifle Association, criticized the study... –"These people were highly susceptible to homicide," he said. –"We know that because they were killed." Berkshire Eagle, October 7, 1993 page A3 (An AP story from Boston)

6. © Jeff Offutt, 2007-20126 Eating and Talking Japanese eat very little fat and suffer fewer heart attacks than British or Americans On the other hand, French eat a lot of fat and also suffer fewer heart attacks than British or Americans Conclusion: Eat what you like. Speaking English will kill you. Speaking English will kill you.

7. © Jeff Offutt, 2007-20127 Women and Foreigners Analysis of results of a final exam FemaleMale Did not finish12 7 Finished on time 6 (33%) 9 (55%) 1816 Conclusion 1: Male students finish earlier than female ForeignUS Did not finish11 8 Finished on time 2 (11%)13 (65%) 1321 But … something’s fishy … Conclusion 2: US born students finish earlier … ForeignUS F8 (45%)10 M5 (33%)11 A higher percentage of women were foreign … in that class

8. © Jeff Offutt, 2007-20128Summary “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.” – Richard Feynman (Nobel Physics, 1965) Be careful who you fool