1. Agricultural Development, Nutrition and Health: Synergies or Tradeoffs? C-FARE Organized Symposium at the AAEA annual meetings Washington, DC -- 6 August 2013 Will Masters Professor and Chair, Department of Food and Nutrition Policy, Tufts University www.nutrition.tufts.edu | http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters

2. Nutrition makes for good headlines...

3. Source: K. Fuglie and S. L. Wang, “New Evidence Points to Robust but Uneven Productivity Growth in Global Agriculture,” Amber Waves, September 2012. Washington: Economic Research Service, USDA. From Malthus... Is food now sufficiently abundant that it no longer constrains nutrition & health? to Rosling

4. Source: FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization. Some regions are still far from abundance Food supply and real income by region, 1990-2010 Africa has the least food, and is also the poorest

5. Overall, malnutrition is a disease of poverty

6. ...and many non-dietary factors intervene e.g. sanitation and disease Note: Observations are nationally representative country totals from 130 DHS surveys in 65 countries, 1990-2010, with circles are proportional to population. Source: Dean Spears (2013), http://riceinstitute.org.http://riceinstitute.org India Exposure to open defecation and childrens’ height-for-age by country, 1990-2010

7. A variety of logical frameworks are used to diagnose problems and guide intervention The UNICEF framework The FAO FIVIMS framework

8. Each logical framework posits similar but somewhat different relationships The Massett (2011) framework, with 7 IFPRI-USAID pathways highlighted by Webb (2013) The Gillespie et al. (2012) framework

9. The causal framework of economics makes a specific prediction Source: W.A. Masters, “Economic Development, Government Policies and Food Consumption”, chapter 14 in Jayson Lusk, Jutta Roosen and Jason Shogren, eds., Oxford Handbook on the Economics of Food Consumption and Policy, 2011. If households are actively trading, then farm production could be separable from consumption Diets and health then depend on income, prices, access and use, rather than just farm production...

10. How do recent studies of agriculture’s nutritional impacts define “agriculture”? Source: Webb P, Kennedy E. 2012. Impacts of Agriculture on Nutrition: Nature of the Evidence and Research Gaps. Research Briefing Paper No. 4. Boston, MA: Feed the Future Nutrition Innovation Lab. Review paper Number of studies reviewed Period of studies reviewed Agricultural activities included Ruel (2001)141995-1999 Home gardens, small ruminants, aqua-culture Berti et al. (2004)301985-2001 Home gardens, animal husbandry, irrigation, cash cropping, credit, land distribution LeRoy & Frongillo (2007)141987-2003 Animal husbandry, aquaculture, poultry, credit, behavior change communication (BCC) World Bank (2007)521985-2007 All forms of agriculture activity Haider & Bhutta (2008)291985-2004 Home gardens, animal husbandry, BCC Kawarazuka (2010)232000-2009 Aquaculture Masset et al. (2011)231990-2009 Biofortification, home gardens, aquaculture, poultry, husbandry, dairy development. Arimond et al. (2011)391987-2003 All forms of agriculture activity Girard et al. (2012)371990- Home gardens, biofortification, BCC, husbandry, poultry, aquaculture Recent Evidence Reviews of the Impacts of Agriculture on Nutrition

11. Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (April 2011).http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp Rural population growth eventually falls below zero; land per farmer can then expand with mechanization Africa had over 2% annual growth in the rural population, for over 30 years! Rural population growth rates by region, 1950-2055 Meanwhile, farmers face rapid, sustained rural population growth & falling land/worker 2013 Africa is now experiencing Asia’s earlier slowdown in rural population growth, but less quickly

12. Africa had the world’s most severe demographic burden (>90 children per 100 adults) Child and elderly dependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), 1950-2055...and have unprecedented numbers of children per adult earner or care-giver Africa is now experiencing Asia’s earlier "demographic gift", but less quickly Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (April 2011).http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp 2013

13. USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1960-2013 Source: Calculated from USDA, PS&D data (www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline), downloaded 2 Aug 2013. Results shown are each region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat.www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline) It’s never too late for a green revolution

14. Higher agricultural productivity lifts farmers out of poverty and into the dietary transition Source: FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 2013: Food Systems for Better Nutrition. Rome: FAO, June.

15. Beyond Malthus, universal challenges: Socioeconomic inequality, diet quality etc...