1. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land Information System SPoRT Science Advisory Committee, 13 June 2007 Presented by: Jonathan L. Case Relevance to SPoRT objectives Work done since joining SPoRT team Project overview –Hypothesis –Background on Land Information System (LIS) Experiment design Results –Land Information System vs. Eta comparison –Impacts on short-term numerical forecasts Summary / Future Work

2. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 2 Relevance to SPoRT Program Objectives LIS work a natural extension of MODIS SST research Focus on 0  24 hour forecast problems Use of NASA systems and tools –Land Information System developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) –Software capable of incorporating EOS datasets derived from MODIS Fosters collaborations with external agencies –GSFC Hydrological Sciences Branch –NASA Center for Computational Sciences computing resources LIS capable of being transitioned to operations –NCEP/AFWA operations

3. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 3 Activities Since Previous SAC Meeting Mr. Case joined SPoRT team in June 2006 New SPoRT project since previous SAC meeting Gained familiarization with the LIS software Conducted preliminary modeling experiments using LIS with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model Built collaborations between SPoRT and the Hydrological Sciences Branch at GSFC Presented conference paper at annual AMS meeting (2007)

4. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 4 Project Overview Hypothesis: Can short-term mesoscale numerical forecasts of sensible weather elements be improved by using optimally-tuned, high-resolution soil fields? Project Goals: Investigate and evaluate the potential benefits of using high-resolution land surface data derived from NASA systems and tools on regional short-term numerical guidance (0  24 hours) –Use LIS software to initialize soil temperature and moisture in the WRF model –Examine one month period with relatively benign weather Isolate influence of land-atmosphere interactions May 2004 over Florida peninsula

5. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 5 The Land Information System (LIS) Software that runs multiple Land Surface Models (LSMs) efficiently using high-performance computing –Developed by GSFC Noah –LSMs: Noah, Community Land Model, SiB, VIC, Mosaic –Global, high-resolution datasets (down to 1 km) User configurable features –“Spin-up” time for soil equilibrium –Input datasets –Atmospheric forcing data LIS has been coupled to the WRF model –Can run WRF using LIS LSMs and land datasets not available in the standard WRF

6. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 6 Experiment Design LIS offline simulation using Noah LSM –Nested 9-km/3-km grid domain over SE U.S. –Simulation from 1 May 2002 to 1 June 2004 –Output every 12 hours during May 2004 to initialize WRF runs –Atmospheric forcing datasets North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; hourly, ~14 km) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS; 6-hourly, ~52 km) GDAS used where NLDAS forcing is missing Compare regional WRF simulations with high-resolution LIS soil data to WRF runs with Eta model soil data –Calculate verification statistics at 80 surface stations –Plot fields to compare phenomenology differences

7. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 7 Common characteristics –Nested grids: 9-km and 3-km spacing –Noah LSM –Daily 24-hour forecasts during May 2004 initialized at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC –Atmospheric initial & boundary conditions from NCEP Eta model on 40-km grid Differences –Control WRF: Initial soil data from Eta model –LIS/WRF experiment: Initial soil data from 2+ year LIS run on exact WRF grids Control WRF and LIS/WRF Configuration 9-km 3-km

8. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 8 Daily 0-10 cm initial soil moisture (%) (0000 UTC values during May 2004) Eta soil moisture LIS soil moisture Difference (LIS – Eta)

9. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 9 Daily 0-10 cm initial soil moisture (%) (0000 UTC values during May 2004) Eta soil moisture LIS soil moisture Difference (LIS – Eta) LIS Substantially Drier Much more detail in LIS (as expected) LIS drier, especially over N. FL & S. GA LIS slightly more moist over Everglades

10. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 10 Daily 0-10 cm initial soil temperature (°C) (0000 UTC values during May 2004) Eta soil temperature LIS soil temperature Difference (LIS – Eta) LIS systematically cooler over most of domain

11. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 11 0-10 cm initial soil moisture (%) (1200 UTC 6 May 2004) Eta soil moisture LIS soil moisture Difference (LIS – Eta)

12. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 12 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (9-hour forecast valid 2100 UTC 6 May)

13. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 13 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (10-hour forecast valid 2200 UTC 6 May)

14. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 14 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (11-hour forecast valid 2300 UTC 6 May)

15. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 15 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (12-hour forecast valid 0000 UTC 7 May)

16. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 16 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (Meteogram plots at 40J and CTY)

17. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 17 Verification Stats: 0000 UTC Cycle (29 forecasts @ 80 surface stations) LIS/WRF runs reduced RMS errors by a few tenths of a degree over most forecast hours Nocturnal warm bias and daytime cold bias both improved Not much change in dewpoint verification stats LIS/WRF daytime dewpoints about 0.5°C lower than control WRF Wind Speed (not shown): LIS/WRF improved nocturnal high bias

18. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 18 Summary / Preliminary Conclusions Configured and tested LIS/WRF on Florida case –Initial soil fields generated on exact WRF grids –LIS generated soil fields cooler and drier than Eta model Simulated atmosphere sensitive to changes in soil characteristics provided by LIS –Demonstrated positive improvement in sea-breeze prediction on 6 May –Improvements in diurnal prediction of 2-m temperatures during whole month (both 0000 and 1200 UTC forecast cycles)

19. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 19 Proposed Future Activities with LIS/WRF Merge MODIS sea-surface temperatures with LIS soil data Study impacts of LIS soil data on convective initiation –Different regional domains & cases –Varying weather regimes (e.g. supercells vs. air-mass storms) New case study period over Tennessee Valley –Very warm March followed by killing freeze in early April 2007 –Use real-time MODIS greenness fraction products in LIS/WRF system Regional modeling ensembles –Summertime forecast sensitivity to soil initial condition perturbations –Run different LSMs within LIS/WRF for ensemble members Pathway to operational regional LIS/WRF runs

20. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 20 Alabama Freeze Case: April 2007

21. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 21 Alabama Freeze Case: April 2007 Proposal: Use real greenness fraction data in LIS/WRF simulations, derived from MODIS vegetation index composite products Measure impact on WRF forecasts compared to climo datasets

22. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 22 Backup Slides

23. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 23 Soil Moisture: Grid-Wide Stats; Land Points LIS is a few % drier than Eta model in volumetric soil moisture Variation about mean is very similar to Eta model soil moisture

24. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 24 Soil Temp: Grid-Wide Stats; Land Points LIS 0-10 cm soil temperatures typically cooler than Eta at 00z LIS 0-10 cm soil temperatures about the same or slightly warmer at 12z LIS deeper soil temperatures consistently colder than Eta

25. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 25 Sample Sea Breeze Evolution Differences (Forecasts from 1200 UTC 6 May Simulations)

26. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 26 Verification Stats: 1200 UTC Cycle (Surface station 40J)

27. transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 27 Verification Stats: 1200 UTC Cycle (Surface station CTY)