1. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 1 Glenn Austin, Transition Manager AMS Corporate Forum Washington, DC March 9-10, 2006

2. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 2 Outline Background Current Capability Examples and Feedback Planned Enhancements Long-term Goals Opportunities

3. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 3 Background VISION: To meet customer and partner needs for high quality, accessible, and reliable digital weather, water, and climate services.

4. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 4 User-Generated Products Current Capability Collaborative-Forecasting Process –Interactive –Collaborative –Information Oriented NWS Automated Products Text Graphic Digital Voice TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%. National Digital Forecast Database Local Digital Forecast Database Field Offices National Centers Collaborate Data and Science Focus National Centers Model Guidance High Resolution Grids

5. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 5 Current Capability Fulfills NWS Strategic Goal: Faster access to information in more convenient formats through new pathways. Fulfills NRC recommendation: “Provide data and products in digital form.” (Fair Weather Report; June 2003) Fulfills NWS Strategic Goal: Faster access to information in more convenient formats through new pathways. Fulfills NRC recommendation: “Provide data and products in digital form.” (Fair Weather Report; June 2003)

6. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 6 Current Capability More weather data Higher resolution forecasts Visual displays of probability User-defined products create business opportunities Different Products for Different Customers TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%. The public, emergency managers and city planners use graphic products for detailed forecasts Commercial weather companies, emergency managers, and others use grids to generate tailored products Radio stations & public read text forecasts

7. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 7 Current Capability Production Experimental elements: QPF Snow Amount Sky Cover Significant Wave Height Operational elements: Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Temperature Dew Point Probability of Precipitation Weather Wind Direction Wind Speed Apparent Temperature * Relative Humidity * * as of 3/15/06 Operational & experimental elements available for CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Guam

8. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 8 Current Capability Distribution/Access FOS Server Access Service Anonymous ftp Free software developed by the Meteorological Development Laboratory decodes GRIB2 files and supports conversion to netCDF or GIS shapefiles Experimental XML Web Service Web Graphics

9. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 9 Current Capability Assessment Monthly, point-based verification available, comparing surface observations and operational NDFD forecast elements NDFD forecast element verification scores comparable to accuracy of legacy NWS forecasts and model guidance

10. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 10 Current Capability Archive Operational NDFD elements available from NCDC through: Hierarchical Data Storage System (HDSS) http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plhas/has.dsselect NOAA-National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#ndfd

11. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 11 Katrina’s Eye Forecast to Pass over New Orleans Forecast issued Saturday morning Aug 27

12. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 12 Apparent Temperature January 2006

13. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 13 Public Feedback “As a member of a fire department and EMS service we must constantly be aware of weather conditions and how they are going to change. We use the graphical forecasts to prepare for changing weather.” “I work as a Facilities Director for a juvenile correctional facility. We maintain 18 buildings and grounds. For scheduling of staff for snow removal or boiler plant shutdowns, your service is quite valuable.” “I love the ability to look at a forecast for a particular time period. This should be extremely valuable for us as farmers to know predicted cloud cover and precip. chance during the course of the day.”

14. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 14 Your Feedback 1.Are you accessing or using the NDFD information? 2.Is the information helping you achieve the results you need to satisfy your, or your customers’, needs? 3.If so, what positive impacts are you willing to share? 4.If not, what else can we do to help?

15. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 15 Unmet User Needs Relay critical weather information faster and more efficiently Provide higher spatial and temporal resolution Support decision-making by making data more interoperable More hazardous weather information in digital formats

16. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 16 Planned Enhancements Add as experimental elements during the next 12 months: Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities from the Tropical Prediction Center National Convective Outlooks for Days 1 and 2 from the Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Forecast Parameters Elements for Alaska

17. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 17 Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probability Hurricane Wilma – Oct 2005

18. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 18 Planned Enhancements Improve over the next 12 months: Accuracy Expand Guidance e.g., Gridded MOS, Downscaled GFS Produce Gridded Verification Generate Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis fields Resolution Provide NDFD forecast elements in 1-hour resolution for Days 1-3 Separate files for Days 1-3 and Days 4-7

19. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 19 Planned Enhancements Improve over the next 12 months: Availability (reliability) Transition to operational status XML web service Support operational status of NWS websites (99.9% uptime) Consistency Improve and standardize forecasters’ grid-editing tools Modify collaboration thresholds and better procedures

20. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 20 Long-term Goals Increase spatial and temporal resolution Expand horizontal domain offshore and internationally Add a vertical dimension (aviation) Include more probabilistic information Add downscaled high-impact weather information Analysis of Record (objective analysis)

21. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 21 Long-term Goals Establish NDGD e.g., UV Index, probabilistic storm surge Create GIS Map Service Add NDFD to CONDUIT and NOAAPORT Interface with decision-assistance tools Establish one-stop shopping e.g., NDFD, Warning polygons, Radar Evolve into NOAA-wide “Environmental Information Repository”

22. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 22 Supply Chain 1. NWS – e.g., NDFD 2. Retailers – e.g., CWSA, others 3. Customers Success factor: Frequent exchange of data to know customers’ demands e.g., types of data, formats, consumption rates, etc.

23. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 23 Business Opportunities Like software, music, and literature, free open source data comes at a price (i.e., data isn’t everything and support may be what a customer needs.) Your value-added adaptation is often required to fit specific customers needs (especially large complex organizations with weather- sensitive operations.)

24. NOAA/NWS Digital Services 24 Questions, Comments? glenn.austin@noaa.gov 301-713-1858 x150 http://weather.gov/ndfd/