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Renewables – Power to the People Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner former MP (1995-2010) Switzerland.

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Presentation on theme: "Renewables – Power to the People Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner former MP (1995-2010) Switzerland."— Presentation transcript:

1 Renewables – Power to the People Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner former MP ( ) Switzerland

2 Contents Why renewables? Forecasts for oil and gas – can we trust them? What needs to be done? Profound changes of the power system and infrastructure

3 An IEA View on energy (2003) William Ramsay, deputy director IEA Presentation in the Swiss Parliament Energy Commitee

4 Tenfold growth over 10 years

5 Wind power exceeds all forecasts Meilensteine exponentiellen Wachstums (2 n )erreicht Ende Anzahl Jahre bis zur nächsten Verdoppelung kumulierter Bestand Ende Jahr 1000 MW MW 2000 MW MW 4000 MW MW 8000 MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW '900 MW MW2012(p)3(p) MW

6 Neu-Installationen von Kraftwerken in Europa: 71% der Leistung = erneuerbare Energie (2011)

7 Weltmarkt Solarzellenproduktion (Jäger-Waldau: PV Status Report 2012) Weltmarkt Solarzellenproduktion (Jäger-Waldau: PV Status Report 2012) Solar Power: costs reduced – better productivity each year Gestehungskosten seit 1976 (BNEF) Solarzellen- Wirkungsgrade (NREL) Endkundenpreis Dachanlagen BRD (BSW) upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/PVeff(rev ).png

8 What are the good News? Solar is profitable in the retail market of many European countries. Wind power has made a huge step forward: – General reduction of costs – Technical progress for low wind sites, – Means we have a huge increase in profitable resource High petrol prices and scarce government money subsidies for fossil fuels reduced somewhat

9 The Implications of cheaper prices for wind and solar Lower barriers in economic terms Faster growth possible, if market frame is there It is comparatively less interesting to go to Africa for solar – Grids are not there – Grids are more costly than the additional power produced by siting in the South regional approaches are more appropriate in terms of production, trade and storage But: it makes a lot of sense to connect different weather zones!

10 Waht needs to be done?

11 Windzonen und Windressourcen Europa: Potentiale 20mal grösser als Verbrauch Offshore-Nutzungszonen ( weiss ) Auslastung der Anlagen (load Factor) Ausgeprägte Winterspitze Quelle: Forwind / EWEA 2011 Auslastung der Anlagen (load Factor) Ausgeprägte Winterspitze Quelle: Forwind / EWEA 2011

12 Contents Why renewables? Forecasts for oil and gas – can we trust them? What needs to be done?

13 The IEA forecasts for oil prices worked well in the 1990es IEA World Energy Outlook 2000

14 IEA Oil Price Forecast method in 2002 "Crude oil prices are assumed to remain flat until 2010 at around $21 per barrel (in year 2000 dollars) – their average level for the past 15 years. They will then rise steadily to $29 in International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook 2002, p. 37

15 The IEA method of supply prediction: predict demand! The oil supply projections of this Outlook are derived from aggregated projections of oil demand…. Opec conventional oil production is assumed to fill the gap. World Energy Outlook 2002 p. 95

16 IEA Forecasts never hit reality Source: LBST – Werner Zittel

17 Post-peak oil fields show a decline rate of 5,5% per year (Höök, 2009) IEA 2008 global production forecast IEA 2008 oil fields in production decline rate forecast Source: Höök, M. et al: Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production.Energy Policy (2009), Decline rates of oil fields percent per year

18 World Oil Price (real) and spare capacity (IMF 2012) The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology Jaromir Benes, Marcelle Chauvet, Ondra Kamenik, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Susanna Mursula and Jack Selody

19 Negative learning curve of nuclear power Cost over time of French and US new nuclear reactors Source Grubler, Energy Policy, Sept 2010

20 Natural gas price will rise due to Asien Europa USA

21 Decline rates of shale gas Haynesville shale gas wells Source: J. David Hughes: Drill, baby Drill, Postcarbon Institute 2013

22 Contents Why renewables? Forecasts for oil and gas – can we trust them? What needs to be done?

23 Golden End of renewable power plants reduces overal cost for society Kraftwerk Rheinfelden (gebaut )

24 Germany : from 3% to 25% clean power ( 50% bis 2020?) % 2020: 39-47% oder mehr (Schätzung) 2012/7 25% Hydro power

25 Merit-Order-Impact renewable power pushes market price to zero

26 Production and consumption over time on household level – low cincidence! (~20%) Grafik: Markus Hlusiak, Ann-Katrin Gerlach, Christian Breyer: Übergang zu einer regionalen Elektrizitätsversorgung aus 100 % Erneuerbarer Energie am Beispiel des Allgäus, Das Solarzeitalter 3/2012 Low self consumption in one-family houses Better coincidence in large appartment houses. Im grossen Mehrfamilienhaus ist der zeitgleiche Eigenverbrauch viel grösser.* Das Arealprinzip bei der Kostenverrechnung kann die Rendite einer Anlage entscheidend verbessern. Low self consumption in one-family houses Better coincidence in large appartment houses. Im grossen Mehrfamilienhaus ist der zeitgleiche Eigenverbrauch viel grösser.* Das Arealprinzip bei der Kostenverrechnung kann die Rendite einer Anlage entscheidend verbessern. *grösserer und zeitlich stärker gestreuter Verbrauch, weniger Dachfläche pro Einwohner

27 Solar roof power cheaper than residential power tariffs

28 German Power Spotmarket 16 Juli 2011 Source: EEX/Photon

29 Power prices on record low (Strompreis Futures CAL 13) ELIX ,7 -Cent/kWh Baseload 2013

30 European power market: Lower power prices due to wind and solar

31 EEX electricity spot market 7. März 2012: Spot price at day cheaper than at night

32 Why has peak load power become so cheap? – the German example PV Power covers the demand at day – no peak power stations needed with sunny days

33 Market Clearing Price Germany Sunday August 8, 2012

34 Wind and solar reduce market prices due to zero marginal cost

35 Solarstrom füllt das Netz - Bandenergie wird wertlos

36 Compensation rules for power are key for investment certainty We need fair compensation for decentrally produced power – Self consumption starts to be interesting, but it is not sufficient – Storage makes no sense as long as you can sell it with less cost to local demand Market prices at marginal cost is not a fair solution – Every time the sun shines, the price is going to zero – But the cost is not zero – Overall cost is less than for fossil fuels Fair rules could be – A Feed-in tariff for avoided costs (what would power cost if produced elsewhere with fossil fuel – Net metering: let the power meter turn back We need fair compensation for decentrally produced power – Self consumption starts to be interesting, but it is not sufficient – Storage makes no sense as long as you can sell it with less cost to local demand Market prices at marginal cost is not a fair solution – Every time the sun shines, the price is going to zero – But the cost is not zero – Overall cost is less than for fossil fuels Fair rules could be – A Feed-in tariff for avoided costs (what would power cost if produced elsewhere with fossil fuel – Net metering: let the power meter turn back

37 Countries without feed in tariffs net metering as a solution (=let the power meter turn back) Situation today Net metering Solar power is peak power. It is always welcome with market penetration below 20-30%. It covers the demand during high load periods. With market penetration beyond 30% you need storage facilities and a smater grid. Solar power is peak power. It is always welcome with market penetration below 20-30%. It covers the demand during high load periods. With market penetration beyond 30% you need storage facilities and a smater grid. You pay Cents/kWh You get 0-7 cents Cents/kWh

38 Contents Why renewables? Forecasts for oil and gas – can we trust them? What needs to be done? Profound changes of the power system and infrastructure

39 Case study Switzerland: Integration von Wind- und Sonnenstrom ist ohne Mehrkosten möglich dank bestehenden grossen Leistungsreserven in der Schweiz und in Europa (CH 12 GW, Europa 96GW Wasserspeicher) Dank Ausbau der Netze Dank Ausbau der Pumpspeicher (Spanien, Schweiz, Deutschland, Norwegen usw.) Dank neuen Speichern (E-Gas) und fossilem Backup (Erdgas) Zu jeder Tages- und Jahreszeit schont Wind- und Solarstrom die Entnahme von Reserven aus den Speicherseen (hellblau) verbessert die Versorgungssicherheit ersetzt Kohle-, Gas- oder Atomstrom Speicherentnahmen Grafik: CH Elektrizitätsstatistik

40 Leistungsprofil im Sommer, mit 18 TWh Solarstrom jährlich Umkehrung der Speicherzyklen! Speicherkraftwerke produzieren am Abend und in der Nacht Pumpspeicher pumpen am Tag (Sommerzyklus, PV-Maximum) Umkehrung der Speicherzyklen! Speicherkraftwerke produzieren am Abend und in der Nacht Pumpspeicher pumpen am Tag (Sommerzyklus, PV-Maximum)

41 Swiss power Generation in 2030

42 Vernetzung mit Gleichstromleitungen: grössere Reichweite, kleinere Verluste The benefits of grids: Balancing power over several markets Access to new resources Access to existing storages (e.g. pump storage) Access to excess power in other areas The benefits of grids: Balancing power over several markets Access to new resources Access to existing storages (e.g. pump storage) Access to excess power in other areas Unterwasserkabel: Stand de Technik Gleichstromleitungen Nord-Süd im Bundesnetzplan 2012

43 Challenges ahead for renewables A fair price for non-polluting power – Coverage of investment costs and risks over a facilitys life time – Integration of sites with high, medium and lower productivity, avoiding windfall profits – Long term stability of regulatory frameworks for cost reduction Access to the grids in a non-discriminating manner – Preferential access to grids for renewables – Interconnection of different weather zones and technologies – Transparent grid codes Security of supply and backup management – Forecasting of demand and supply – combining storages such as biomass, hydro, batteries in a low cost way – Creation of intra-day and intra-hour markets for power exchange – Fair compensation of idle backup capacities – storing fossil fuels as lenders of last resort Environmental care – minimizing environmental impacts while mobilizing natural resources by incentives and regional planning obligations – Fair and sensitive planning of renewable energies and grids with a 100% approach in mind – Protection for rare species, natural rivers, exceptional landscapes A fair price for non-polluting power – Coverage of investment costs and risks over a facilitys life time – Integration of sites with high, medium and lower productivity, avoiding windfall profits – Long term stability of regulatory frameworks for cost reduction Access to the grids in a non-discriminating manner – Preferential access to grids for renewables – Interconnection of different weather zones and technologies – Transparent grid codes Security of supply and backup management – Forecasting of demand and supply – combining storages such as biomass, hydro, batteries in a low cost way – Creation of intra-day and intra-hour markets for power exchange – Fair compensation of idle backup capacities – storing fossil fuels as lenders of last resort Environmental care – minimizing environmental impacts while mobilizing natural resources by incentives and regional planning obligations – Fair and sensitive planning of renewable energies and grids with a 100% approach in mind – Protection for rare species, natural rivers, exceptional landscapes

44 Why renewables should succeed: the benefits Reliable, inexhaustible and virtually free (but weather dependent) primary energy (wind, solar, hydro, geothermal) Resilient due to decentralized, interconnected generation Affordable power, on the way to become a least cost-solution, chance for a Golden End needing a favorable market structure – balancing high up-front cost with later benefits – Diversity of sources and interconnection Reliable, inexhaustible and virtually free (but weather dependent) primary energy (wind, solar, hydro, geothermal) Resilient due to decentralized, interconnected generation Affordable power, on the way to become a least cost-solution, chance for a Golden End needing a favorable market structure – balancing high up-front cost with later benefits – Diversity of sources and interconnection


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