1. TESTING THE REALISM OF THE MMF (or any GCM) REPRESENTATION OF THE MJO William B. Rossow Eric Tromeur City College of New York CMMAP Meeting 29-31 July 2008

2. Index based on the first extended EOF analysis of 200hPa velocity potential anomalies from equatorward of 30  N MJO Index  Chen Y. and A. D. Del Genio, Climate Dynamics, 2008  Maloney E. and D. L. Hartmann, J. Climate, 1998 Index based on the first two EOFs of the bandpass-filtered (20 - 80 days) 850hPa zonal wind averaged from 5  N to 5  S every 2.5  around the equator  Wheeler M. C. and H. H. Hendon, Monthly Weather Review, 2004 Index based on the first two EOFs of the combined fields of 850hPa zonal wind, 200hPa zonal wind, and OLR data averaged from 15  N to 15  S every 2.5  around the equator  Tian B., Waliser D. E., and E. J. Fetzer, GRL, 2006 Index based on the first extended EOF analysis of the bandpass-filtered (30 - 90 days) rainfall anomalies from 30  N to 30  S every 1  around the equator Index based on the first extended EOF analysis of 200hPa velocity potential anomalies from equatorward of 30  N

3. MJO Index in Tropics MJO index : 10 components National Weather Service / Climate Prediction Center Negative values : enhanced convection Positive values : suppressed convection Consider a strong MJO event to be one when index < -1 Composite of cloud regimes function of MJO phase (Chen and Del Genio, 2008) Focus on the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the boreal winter (November-April) Ten time-lagged patterns of the first EEOF of pentad CHI200 anomalies

4. RFO of MJO Index in 60E - 180 E region (1983 - 2004) Jan-Dec periods Continuum of MJO index values MJO signal all over the year Stronger anomalies during the Boreal Winter

5. ISCCP WEATHER STATES 1.Cloud Properties 2. Diabatic Heating 3. Variations of RFO and Large-Scale Circulation during MJO

6. PC - TAU histogram pattern and Map in Tropics over 21.5 years 1983 - 2004 time period Rossow et al, GRL, 2005 Cluster Analysis + ISCCP D1 data WS1 : Deep cumulus clouds WS2 : Cirrostratus Anvil clouds WS3 : Congestus clouds WS4 : Cirrus clouds WS5 : Shallow cumulus clouds WS6 : Stratocumulus clouds

7. Composite of precipitation in Tropics (1997 - 2004)

8. Composite of Radiative net fluxes in ATM in Tropics (1997 - 2004) Shortwave net flux Longwave net flux

9. Composite of Surface Fluxes in Tropics (1989 - 2000) Latent Heat FluxSensible Heat Flux

10. RFO of each cloud regime in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1983 - 2004) Weak MJO (index < -1) Strong MJO (index < -2.2) WS1 WS2 WS3 WS4 WS5 WS6 WS7 Convective cloud regimes Suppressed cloud regimes Clear sky Cloud regimes Cirrus regime

11. Peak Ratio of each cloud regime in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1983 - 2004) di = 0.1 -2.2 I1I2I3I4I5I6 I1 I2

12. VARIATIONS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND WINDS DURING MJO

13. Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*pcp(n) Composite of Total Precipitation Anomalies in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1997 - 2004)

14. GPCP Precipitation and cloud regimes in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1997 - 2004) Strong MJO (index < -2.2) Weak MJO (index < -1) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*pcp(n)

15. Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*srf(n) Composite of Total Surface Flux Anomalies in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1989 - 2000) Latent Heat FluxSensible Heat Flux

16. Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1)

17. Composite of Omega in Tropics (1983 - 2004) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis a/ Omega at 200mb b/ Omega at 500mb c/ Omega at 850mb a/ c/b/

18. Method 1 : om(n,lag) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Method 2 : rfo(n,lag)*om(n) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Composite of Omega in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (1983 - 2004) 200 mb 500 mb 850 mb 200 mb 500 mb 850 mb

19. THE TESTS 1.Verify Large-Scale Circulation Variations √√ 2.Verify Associated Changes in Cloud Property Distributions (WS – slide 14) 3.Verify Associated Variations of Diabatic Heating and Winds – Amplitude & Phase 4.Identify Key Process(es) in Model 5.Verify Behavior in Observations

20. THINGS TO DO Finer Time Resolution (Lags, ITA) Storm Size – Lifetime Distributions Tracks and Evolution Vertical Structure

22. BACKUP SLIDES

23. Longwave net flux Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Shortwave net flux Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Composite of Radiative net fluxes in ATM in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1997 - 2004) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*rad(n)

24. Latent Heat Flux Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Sensible Heat Flux Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Composite of Surface Fluxes in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1989 - 2000) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*srf(n)

25. Composite of precipitation in Tropics (1997 - 2004) Method 2 rfo(n,lag)*pcp(n) Method 1 pcp(n,lag) Composite of Precipitation Cloud regimesMJO phase No change of precip with WS

26. Composite of Radiative net fluxes in ATM in Tropics (1997 - 2004) Shortwave net flux Longwave net flux

27. Composite of Surface Fluxes in Tropics (1989 - 2000) Latent Heat FluxSensible Heat Flux

28. GPCP Precipitation and cloud regimes in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1997 - 2004) Method 1 : pcp(n,lag)Method 2 : rfo(n,lag)*pcp(n) Strong MJO (index < -2.2) Weak MJO (index < -1)

29. Method 1: lw(n,lag) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Composite of Longwave net fluxes in ATM in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1997 - 2004) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*lw(n) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1)

30. Method 1: sw(n,lag) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*sw(n) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Composite of Shortwave net fluxes in ATM in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1997 - 2004)

31. Method 1: lhf(n,lag) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*lhf(n) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Composite of Latent Heat Fluxes in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1989 - 2000)

32. Method 1: shf(n,lag) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*shf(n) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Composite of Sensible Heat Fluxes in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1989 - 2000)

33. Method 1 : om(n,lag) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Method 2 : rfo(n,lag)*om(n) Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Composite of Omega in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (1983 - 2004) 200 mb 500 mb 850 mb 200 mb 500 mb 850 mb

34. Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*lw(n) Composite of Anomalies of Total LW net flux in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1997 - 2004)

35. Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*sw(n) Composite of Anomalies of Total SW net flux in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1997 - 2004)

36. RFO of each cloud regime in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1983 - 2004) Index < -2.2 Index < -1Index < -1.4Index < -1.8 Index < -3Index < -2.6

37. Longwave net flux Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Shortwave net flux Strong MJO (index < -2.2)Weak MJO (index < -1) Composite of Radiative net fluxes in TOA in 60E-180E region / 5S-5N latitude band (MJO events in November-April periods from 1997 - 2004) Method 2: rfo(n,lag)*rad(n)